How Republicans Can Win in 2016…Book Review….

A must-read: 2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America by Whit Ayres.

“If the 2016 Republican nominee wins the same percentage of the white vote that Mitt Romney won in 2012 — 59 percent — then he or she will need to win 30 percent of the non-white vote to be elected. That is far greater than the 17 percent of the non-white vote that Romney achieved in 2012, or the 19 percent John McCain won in 2008, and better even than the 26 percent of the non-white vote that George W. Bush won his 2004 reelection campaign.”

“On the other hand, if the 2016 Republican nominee wins no more of the non-white vote than Romney’s 17 percent, he or she will need to win 65 percent of the white vote to win. That is a level of white vote achieved by only one Republican nominee in the past forty years: Ronald Reagan in his 49-state landslide reelection sweep in 1984, when he won 66 percent of the white vote… Republicans can complain about these trends, wring their hands over them, and get heartburn as a result. What they can’t do is change them.”



96 thoughts on “How Republicans Can Win in 2016…Book Review….”

    1. Soooo….
      This WashPost piece says Romney got….59% of the overall 72% of white voters….

      Cillizza goes on to say…..

      ‘An electoral college victory for Romney built on an increase in his white vote margins then would have been far more difficult than a popular vote one. And that highlights Republicans’ problems in 2016 — and beyond. (Worth noting: it’s impossible to quantify but there is undoubtedly some portion of the white vote that went for McCain and Romney due to Obama’s skin color. If Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton in 2016, that would be less of an issue.) Unless the white vote heavily consolidates — up to and perhaps beyond Reagan’s 66 percent in 1984 — the party will be hard pressed to get to an electoral college majority in 2016 unless it can find ways to win more of the Latino vote.’

      In losing ?

      Obama got roughly 5 Million MORE votes than Romney….
      Romney would have had to get 2.5 Millon MORE to win….

      In our discussions here we all tend to agree that with Obama NOT in the running next year
      A white woman…Even with the name Clinton is bound to INCREASE the number of whites voting for her….

      Jeb or whoever the GOPer’s pick IS in deep shit IF?
      Blacks, Browns , Yellows AND whites come out in the numbers even or above the they did for 2012…

      Thank You for the info….

  1. Sandoval is a great Governor – but I worry about how his abortion and immigration positions go over with the base. I’m not sure if Jeb has the standing with conservatives to pull off Sandoval.

    Walker? Maybe.

  2. Tough for me to say Jeb has this when he’s under 30% in Florida and is only ahead by a single percentage point.

    Agree w/Jack on that Ayers piece – it was tough to read. I know Romney took nearly 70% of whites, but that number will come down w/Obama off the ballot. Jeb may peel some Hispanics, but I’m not at all certain he’d get to 2004 GWB levels.

  3. Jeb has to win the nomination first. And all those things that SE notes could help him increase the GOPs share of the Hispanic vote make it tougher for him to be nominated.

    In fact if Jeb is defeated and his support of more humane immigration policies is noted as a factor Republicans could dig an even deeper hole with Latino vote

  4. Scott,

    Jeb or whoever wins the GOP Nomination could select NM Governor Susana Martinez or NV Governor Brian Sandoval as VP. Martinez & Sandoval got well over 40 % in their Governor Races in 2014.

    1. Daniel?
      You are suggesting window dressing….

      Please go back check Marco Rubio’s latest…
      “i got it’
      The rightwingnuts could care less if he was brown or purple….
      They have their line…THAT’s what they want ya following…
      Jeb is gonna fight that…But the hardcore rightwing nuts ain’t gonna be happy …..
      Bush IS running at the general election and his parties establishment and moderates on Immigration….

      1. I STILL think Jeb HAS this….

        Walker is just NOT up to the effort that it involves….
        He’s just running hard to the right and will fail after the Iowa and NH….If he gets THAT far…

  5. Bush’s chances with the Hispanic vote are buoyed not as much by his wife so much as by his very pro-open borders, anti-America philosophies and proposals. Anyone who thinks he won’t do better with them with all the pandering he’s done is insane. He’ll likely take 60% of their votes in the end(probably the only demographic among which Trump would underperform, even if by only a few %, any of the other GOP prospects).

    Of course, espousing the views that he does will likely result in him cratering amongst white voters. He’d still win them as a whole, but he’d only do so with a dismal showing between 51% and 53%.

  6. Yesterday’s exchange where Corey bristled at the idea that equal rights for gays is at all comparable to equal rights for African-Americans reminded me of how right wingers thought Obama’s support for marriage equality would draw black voters into the GOP.

    It didn’t. Even if many older African-Americans do not support same sex marriage they are even more offended by Republican policies that support the rich above all else.

    It’s always that way with the GOP and minority voters. Hope that they “come around” instead of actually promoting policies they like.

    The takeaway from the Ayres piece should be that Republicans need to actually fight for these voters instead of pointing to a few of their members like Ben Carson or Tim Scott who happen to be minorities who all parrot the same policies most minorities are opposed to.

    I see no evidence they are listening. Corey’s disputing Ayres numbers and insisting that gobs of Hispanics will vote for Jeb because of his Hispanic wife illustrates that lack of comprehension.

  7. Romney got 59% of whites, Daniel.

    You must be confusing Romney’s actual numbers with whites and what I had earlier indicated were Trump’s likely numbers with whites.

  8. Romney got 67 % of the White Vote jack.

    Honestly, you, james and Scott are acting like whiners and a bunch of 6-year old children like the Shrillary Presidency is a done deal. Geez.

  9. Yeah after looking at Ayres numbers you can see why Republicans are pinning all their hopes on another Clinton “scandal”.

    This may be a big astory for a fee days and cause some headaches for Team Hillary. Cause her to drop out? You don’t know the Clintons!

    The odds of this causing her margin over her now non existent rivals to crater from 50 points to where she loses the nomination are astronomically low.

    But I guess Republicans think those odds are better than the ones they have of actually significantly increasing their share of the minority vote.

    1. While reading in for this mornings post I had a momment of ‘Why the fuck do I follow politics?’

      There are bullshit follow-up stories on the eClinton emails across the political net’ world….

      Then I see this on twitter….

      Chris Cillizza ‏@TheFix
      If you don’t think the Clinton email story is a bid deal, ask yourself if you would if it had to with Jeb Bush’s emails.

      followed by this….

      icebergslim ‏@icebergslim1047
      @TheFix The answer is NO. The public does not care about this. But you in DC in your batcave, will continue to trump it up. NONSENSE

      And I smile and say Ok….
      It’s not just me….
      Others realize this is a unimportant story for political junkies and hardcore rightwingnuts…
      Most people could care less…
      And the average voter doesn’t even know WTF Benghazi is…..

  10. The far more interesting thing from yesterday was the Whit Ayres piece.

    Mind you Ayres is no “damn librul” but a veteran Republican political operative.

    His conclusions are really devastating to the Republicans as for electing aPresident.

    65% of the White vote?

    That’s not going to happen.


    Increasing SUBSTANTIALLY their share of the Minority vote as the majority of Republicans in the House seek to close down a Dept, of the federal government to screw over some Hispanics while their gaggle of Right Wing kooks blow off anti immigrant crap day after day after day?

    As for the Blacks, they place in their Congrssional leadership some guy from La. Who basically “claims” he didn’t know he was speaking to some KKK types or who David Duke was?

    This is almost comedic.

    Bluntly, if Ayes is right, absent a TOTAL collapse by the Democrats, they are going to lose.

    1. The ‘IF’ in Ayres, yours and even my agreement with the Ayres reveal?…..

      IF Black, Brown and Yellow people SHOW UP and vote….

  11. I don’t know any Democrats who get their political news from Entertainment Tonight.

    Sure there may be some. But there are probably some Republicans who get their political news from that ole senile bigot Pat Robertson on The 700 Club.

  12. There are a lot of people on the left who want Elizabeth Warren to get into the race and are willing to step all over Hillary to achieve that.

    1. Ha, ha, ha…..He, he, he….
      Damn REAL they want Warren….A Target Rich Lefty….

      He, he, he…
      This IS comical …..
      Hillary Clinton does what every OTHER Sec of Stater does and she gets grief?
      Lets drag out Benghazi!
      We haven’t heard that for a few minutes!
      How about Obama’s Birth Certificate!
      And the Earth is FLat!….

      No wonder Scott Walker is doing so great in the polls!

  13. I’m interested to see how fiercely members of the left who would go to war for Barack Obama will defend her. Specifically thinking of the Twitter crowd, MSNBC and places like Gawker, Slate…….

    So far, it doesn’t look real good for her. MSNBC is actually covering this like it’s a legit story and she seems to be getting almost mocked over at Gawker. The Twitterverse has been pretty silent, which is basically par for the course when a Democrat is in trouble.

    Had a pretty liberal buddy text me today and he basically said that Hillary now has a more legitimate scandal than Obama has had in 7 years as President and she isn’t even the nominee yet.

    To be clear, I don’t think this ends her candidacy. But it’s nice to know that Obama’s teflon doesn’t seem to extend to he.

  14. This Hillary email scandal was actually just the “Top Story” on Entertainment Tonight.

    That’s actually the worst of all possible news for Hillary, considering Democrats’ dependence on low-information pop culture obsessed voters.

  15. Not sure this Colin Powell defense is going to fly. The way I understand it, the law was different when Powell was Secretary of State.

    I must say that I’m pretty shocked to see even pretty liberal outfits (Gawker-Vox) hammering her so hard on this. Too bad there isn’t a plausible Democratic challenger to take advantage of it.

  16. james, you clearly are only reading what you want to read in the New York Times (hardly a right-wing newspaper) story.

    She hasn’t released any of her own emails, as she was required to do. She did them *all* off the books. Previously, other Secretaries of State did so occasionally or under emergency circumstances. She was upset that they did so.

    What she did was far more sweeping, and was done after laws were changed to prevent it.

    This question (and many others) will come to her eventually. When she chooses to answer and how she does so, will be very telling.

    Goodnight.. I think.

    1. Corey?
      Hillary Clinton like Powell and used private emails along with public ones…
      Powell and others where asked by the National Arcives for stuff
      She and others complied
      She gave an additional 300 to your House buddies for the Benghazi investigation
      She NOW HAS RELEASED 50,000 of Her ‘private” emails
      The whole way of how Sec of State communicated was LEGAL
      I know you want a ‘gotcha’
      This isn’t it…..

  17. Not that he specifically referenced me or the right that right that Scott and I have to remain unmarried.

  18. The Republican Party will eventually support marriage equality, and by extension you will too Corey.

    “Principles” or no.

    And that’s all I have to say about that.

  19. I believe as a matter of public policy, marriage should be recognized by the government as a being between one man and one woman. I continue to support Civil Unions as a legitimate alternative and support the right of people to enter into whatever personal unions they want. I have no qualms with my party standing on principle.

    The concept of “denying rights” is a slippery slope though. We already do so, and supporters of same sex marriage would claim they would continue to do so as well in other regards.

  20. I didn’t say they were the same in severity, but allowing one group of citizens a right while denying it to another is wrong whether it’s based on skin color or sexual orientation.

    I admit I have changed my mind on this issue, as have millions of Americans including many Republicans.

    I know this isn’t really in your wheelhouse Corey and I imagine you will breathe a sigh of relief when your party comes around on gay rights. You won’t have to defend this stuff anymore.

  21. james, it states they used it occasionally, mostly for private correspondence, or as a back-up when there was some sort of tech glitch with the server or whatever.

    Hillary used it exclusively and totally and appears to have done so after regulations were inacted to prevent it.

    At the minimum, it opens her up to hypocrisy, because she and Democrats were saying the private email thing was wrong to do.

    She clearly is going to have to speak publicly about this and answer a lot of questions in fairly quick order. Do you disagree?

  22. Not to state the obvious, but clearly you have never been black.

    I do remember several years ago stating that you did not support same sex marriage. Maybe you secretly did , like Obama, and did not want others to know, or maybe you genuinely evolved, as is your right.

    I continue to support Civil Unions as a matter of public policy. I believe it can go about extending rights, if they are found needing to be extended.

    The comparisons though between same sex marriage and the right to vote or the right to housing or anti-lynching, etc, is extremely ill-regarded, in my view, and seeks to diminish people who had to fight for what were genuine civil rights.

  23. Why are you still opposed to marriage equality Corey?

    Why shouldn’t they have the same rights as you and me?

    1. As the courts have come to see
      Marriage to whoever IS a Civil Right
      Jeb seems to be passively for it….
      BTW? Neb AG is appealing Fed judge order to go ahead with same-Sex marriage in that state…

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