Yes…The US and Allies are dealing with an Iran playing BOTH sides in the War on Terror…

President Obama’s efforts to go after the Islamic State has caused America and its Allies to deal with the twists and turns of the Middle East…..

Is the U.S. now counting on devils to help defeat ISIS? The answer is unquestionably yes.

Brute facts are hard to deny. Unstated, and perhaps unstateable, is the expectation among U.S. officials that two of America’s leading adversaries—Bashar al-Assad’s Syria and Iran—will intensify their war against ISIS. Neither Assad nor Iran is fighting as a favor to the United States. Both rightly see ISIS as an imminent or even existential threat to themselves. As uncomfortable as it may be to say, it is Iran-affiliated fighters who are doing the most to kill ISIS militants on the ground in Iraq and Syria at this point.

Because Iran and Syria are declared and deadly enemies of America and its Sunni allies, Washington’s formal acknowledgement of their role in the conflict would be undiplomatic. But assessing the U.S. campaign’s prospects of success without recognizing the work each country is doing is nonsense.

Is the U.S. now counting on devils to help defeat ISIS? The answer is unquestionably yes.
In Syria, Iran is the biggest supporter of Assad’s army, providing his regime with weapons, intelligence, advisors, money, and shock troops from Iran’s proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah. Who are the primary beneficiaries of the airstrikes the U.S. has conducted on targets in Syria? It is no accident that Assad’s foreign minister said his government is “satisfied” with the strikes, while the loudestobjections have come from Assad’s leading opponents, including the Free Syrian Army, which the U.S. has supported with weapons and training.

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Christie-Martinez 2016 presidential ticket?

                            Chris Christie and Susanan Martinez on the campaign trail in NJ last year….democraticunderground image….

A Moderate 2016 GOP ticket?

(Without Jeb Bush?)

Gov. Chris Christie today stepped off the tour bus that was parked more than 2,000 away from his home to greet a friend and political ally some Republicans dream could join him on a presidential ticket in 2016.

New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez led Christie to the crowd of more than 100 cheering supporters standing outside of a restaurant located in the Northwest corner of her state. It’s the second time in recent months Christie, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, flew here to greet New Mexican voters.

And for Christie, it’s also a matter of returning a favor.

“Last year when I was campaigning for reelection, there was only one person from out of state that I asked to come campaign with me, and it was Susana and Chuck Martinez,” said Christie, referring to New Mexico’s governor and her husband.

“Not only because we look at things very, very similarly, we try to govern in the same way, but also because they are very good friends of mine and Mary Pat’s,” he said…..

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Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 30th, 2014…Red Racing Horses

We’re featuring the Red Racing Horses Polling for now…..

Real Clear Politics seems to be unhappy with my posting of polls from them…..

But this is their link…..Here...

( Good poll’s for Hagan and Shaheen folks….I STILL think they WILL win….come Tuesday….)

by: Greyhound @ Red Racing Horses

5 days to go . . .

Senate:

AR-Sen: The 2014 Arkansas poll has Tom Cotton up 49-36 over Mark Pryor.

AR-Sen-2: Rasmussen has  Tom Cotton up 51-44.

CO-Sen-1: Quinnipiac has Cory Gardner up 46-39 on Mark Udall.

CO-Sen-2: A PPP poll for the LCV has the race tied, at 48-48.

CO-Sen-3: A SUSA/Denver Post Poll has  Cory Gardner up 46-44.

KY-Sen: A POS poll  has Mitch McConnell up 50-43 on Alison Lundergan Grimes.

NC-Sen-1: Elon University has Kay Hagan up 45-41 on Thom Tillis.

NC-Sen-2: PPP for the LCV has Kay Hagan up 47-46.

NC-Sen-3: Rasmussen has Kay Hagan up 47-46.

Governor:

AR-Gov-1: The 2014 Arkansas Poll has Asa Hutchinson up 50-39 on Mike Ross.

AR-Gov-2: Rasmussen has Asa Hutchinson up 50-43.

CA-Gov: A Field poll has Jerry Brown up 54-33 on Neel Kashkari.

CO-Gov: A PPP poll for the LCV has the race tied between John Hickenlooper and Bob Beauprez, 47-47.

FL-Gov-1: SEA Polling has Rick Scott up 45-43 on Charlie Crist.

FL-Gov-2: Quinnipiac has Charlie Crist up 43-40 in their latest poll.

GA-Gov: A Rasmussen poll has Nathan Deal up 49-43 over Jason Carter.

MD-Gov: A Hogan internal has him up 44-39 on Anthony Brown.

MA-Gov: A Suffolk/Herald poll has Charlie Baker up 46-43 on Martha Coakley.

MA-Gov-2: An Emerson College poll has Charlie Baker up 48-42.

House:

MA-6: An Emerson College poll has Richard Tisei up 42-40 over Seth Moulton.

MA-9: The same Emerson College poll has Bill Keating up 46-41 over John Chapman.

NJ-5: A Monmouth poll has Scott Garrett up 53-42 over Roy Cho.

…from Red Racing Horses…..

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Kaci Hickox Under home Ebola Quarantine…Goes for a bike ride…

She is under a VOLUNTARY/? Home  hold, in Maine,  until she gets in 21 days from her first testing at Newark Airport….

She’s NOT happy …Nor are a LOT of Other people at her….

A nurse who cared for Ebola patients in Sierra Leone defied Maine officials on Thursday morning, leaving her house for a short bicycle ride and setting up a legal fight over a 21-day quarantine ordered by the state.

The nurse, Kaci Hickox, left her house on the edge of Fort Kent just after 9 a.m., biking with her boyfriend, Ted Wilbur, down a quiet paved road, followed closely by two police cars and a caravan of reporters.

The couple rode less than a mile, then turned onto a graded gravel trail on a former railroad right of way flanked by pines. One police car, which has been posted outside her house for days, followed slowly behind. Ms. Hickox and her boyfriend, wearing jackets in the crisp Maine morning, returned to the house an hour later.

Ms. Hickox also left her home briefly Wednesday night when she stepped outside to speak to reporters….

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Republicans 2016…Compassionate Conservatism?…

Brookings looks at this question for Republicans who could hold the leadership of the US House and Senate and have an internal struggle between establishment Republicans and their conservative hard right leaning brothers and sisters…..

The results of the parties actions in 2015 /2016 ARE gonna influence things in the 2016 Presidential and Senate elections that could very well find Democrats back in power with MORE seats then they presently hold….

Could Goerge Bush’s campaign be the wave of the future?…..

Could his brother Jeb Bush , Bringing back Compassionate Conservatism? against  the Tea party way,  be the answer for the GOP to blunt a Hillary Clinton run?

In 2000, Republican George W. Bush ran for president as a “compassionate conservative.” At the beginning of his first term, he pushed for faith-based initiatives, which sought a greater role for religious non-profits to provide federally funded social services, and he championed the No Child Left Behind Act, which required all public schools to meet tough standards to qualify for federal funding. As Bush said in defense of his approach, “Government cannot solve every problem, but it can encourage people and communities to help themselves and to help one another. Often the truest kind of compassion is to help citizens build lives of their own.”

By the end of the decade, long after Bush’s own presidential priorities had been altered by the events of 9/11, little talk of compassionate conservatism could be found among Republicans. With the rise of the Tea Party movement in response to the election of Barack Obama and the passage of the Affordable Care Act, Republicans successfully captured control of the U.S. House and many state legislatures in 2010, and calls for compassionate conservatism gave way to austere calls to reduce the size and scope of government. Republicans appear poised to repeat their success in the current 2014 midterm elections.

But another repeat scenario may unfold if the Republican Party believes its electoral success in 2014 is an endorsement of its policies rather than a referendum on the uneasy state of the national economy. In 2012, Republicans ran on similar themes as 2010, hoping to roll back Obamacare, cut taxes, and reduce big government—yet Obama handily won re-election. Data from the 2014 American Values Survey (AVS), conducted by Public Religion Research Institute, shows why such a Republican strategy to embrace Tea Party themes in 2016 would likely not work, regardless of what works in this year’s midterms….

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Joe Biden…Jump at it or Retire with Grace?

The Hillary Clinton train has ALREADY left the station….

Joe Biden knows it….

Democrats know it….

What’s a guy ‘in the loop’ to do?

“I look out on that field, and first thing I think is, ‘Coach, put me in, man, I’m ready to play,’” Biden said.

Most of the time, it’s not so hard to tell what Biden’s thinking — he’s just said it. But even his inner circle doesn’t seem to know where his head is on 2016 — whether he is actually going to get in the game or stay on the sidelines, dreaming of his glory days.

Throughout the midterms, he has been helping out candidates all over the country. It’s not clear to anyone, though, that there’s been the kind of strategy to help himself he’d need if he were serious about a White House run.

“You know the idea’s rattling around there, but I think that’s as far as we can speculate at this point,” said Larry Rasky, communications director for Biden’s two previous presidential runs and still an adviser and friend.

The last any of Biden’s circle seems to have heard is that he’s still not planning to make a decision about the race until next summer, well after Clinton’s expected launch and the chance for a graceful exit that he could say wasn’t about being chased out.

People who’ve been talking to Biden say the factor weighing on his mind may be less Clinton than Obama. Even as a sitting vice president, Biden might not be too proud to run a long-shot campaign, they insist. He was living it up during those months in 2007 when he was lucky to get a dozen people in a room and finished with a grand total of 1 percent in the Iowa caucuses.

But he might not be willing to risk losing the integral role he revels in at the White House.

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Thomas M. Menino, former Boston Mayor , is gone….

                           …former Democratic Boston Mayor Tom Menino….image BostonMagazine…..

He was the longest serving Boston Mayor…..

Thomas M. Menino, Boston’s longest-serving mayor, who said he attended so many community meetings over his two decades in office that he personally met half of the city’s residents, has died. He was 71.

He died today after battling cancer, according to his website. No other details were provided.

The five-term Democratic mayor, who didn’t seek re-election a year ago, was known as Boston’s urban mechanic for his focus on repairing pot holes, fixing fire hydrants and planting trees. His tenure at City Hall exceeded that of the sitting mayors in any of the country’s 30 largest cities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg…..

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Democrats…Polls…Undercounts….

The Upshot @ The NY Times just wants to remind us that Democrats COULD do a bit better November 4 then the polls predict….

Polls show that the Republicans have an advantage in the fight for control of the Senate. They lead in enough states to win control, and they have additional opportunities in North Carolina and New Hampshire to make up for potential upsets. As Election Day nears, Democratic hopes increasingly hinge on the possibility that the polls will simply prove wrong.

But that possibility is not far-fetched. The polls have generally underestimated Democrats in recent years, and there are reasons to think it could happen again.

In 2010, the polls underestimated the Democrats in every competitive Senate race by an average of 3.1 percentage points, based on data from The Huffington Post’s Pollster model. In 2012, pre-election polls underestimated President Obama in nine of the 10 battleground states by an average of 2 percentage points.

A couple of elections in which polls tilt slightly Republican aren’t enough to prove anything. The polls have erred before, only to prove fine over the longer term.

But the reasons to think that today’s polls underestimate Democrats are not based on just the last few years of results. They are also based on a fairly diverse set of methodological arguments, supported by extensive research, suggesting that many of today’s polls struggle to reach Democratic-leaning groups…..

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Political Roundup for October 30, 2014…LA-05: Ted Cruz endorsed Zach Dasher, the “Duck Dynasty” cousin…Red Racing Horses….

by: BostonPatriot

Senate:CO-Sen: In today’s theater of the absurd, NARAL Pro-Choice America is running a radio ad blaming future condom shortages on Cory Gardner because he wants to “ban birth control.” (Gardner, of course, has made making the Pill available over the counter a central tenet of his campaign, and probably wouldn’t be leading if he hadn’t staked out that position early on.) The only universe in which this makes sense is if NARAL is spending its money to troll us.

IA-Sen: A female military officer who built her career from the ground up went to Iowa to attack a woman who built her entire career on her husband’s achievements for holding the women’s movement back. Oh, wait, I have that backwards–it was Hillary Clinton who attacked Joni Ernst for being part of the war on women.

LA-Sen: I wish VA-Gov had turned out differently last year for two reasons: One, so we wouldn’t have Gov. McAuliffe, and two, so Ken Cuccinelli would have better things to do than spin drivel like this.

NH-Sen: Rand Paul, backed by the Chamber of Commerce, cut a late ad for Scott Brown, appealing directly to the state’s crucial libertarian bloc.

House:

CA-24: Is Lois Capps this year’s surprise target? The DCCC is making a $100K buy on behalf of the veteran Dem, who was redistricted from a safe seat into a light blue one in 2012. Capps easily defeated ex-LG Abel Maldonado last cycle and wasn’t expected to have trouble with businessman Chris Mitchum this year, but early voting numbers have been encouraging for the GOP thus far.

LA-05: Ted Cruz endorsed Zach Dasher, the “Duck Dynasty” cousin who is one of several Republicans running against Kissin’ Rep. Vance McAllister (R) and Jamie Mayo (D) in the jungle primary. Dasher has support from the whole host of national conservative grassroots groups, which could help him gain separation from the other GOP candidates and earn a runoff spot, presumably against either McAllister or Mayo.

NE-02: Doink. After Rep. Lee Terry (R) ran a Willie Horton-type ad connecting his opponent to the release of a murderer from prison, that very murderer decided to endorse Terry during a court appearance regarding his competency to stand trial. The fact that I just had to write that should tell you why Terry is trailing in the polls despite sitting in a reddish district in a reddish year.

NY-01: Lee Zeldin (R) picked up a helpful and somewhat surprising endorsement from Newsday, the left-leaning daily that serves Long Island and has endorsed Rep. Tim Bishop (D) in his past races. This will likely be the closest race in New York (whatever chaos unfolds in NY-11 nonwithstanding).

NV-04: Republicans dominated early voting here once again yesterday, and the DCCC is now moving in with a $360K buy (which is barely a third of what Crossroads is spending here) to save freshman Rep. Steven Horsford, who appears to have been caught completely flat-footed. Republicans are winning early voting in Dem-heavy Clark County, which contains over 75% of the districts voters, many of whom are urban minorities sitting the year out. That’s big trouble for Horsford, as the rest of the district is blood-red desert….

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Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 10/30/14… A little-known Libertarian is Mark Begich’s secret weapon

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jeff Singer

Democrat Mark Begich

Leading Off:

AK-Sen: If it worked for Jon Tester, it may just work for Mark Begich. Nathaniel Herz at the Alaska Dispatch News details how the Democratic senator has been boosting the campaign of Libertarian Mark Fish, “tossing him softball questions” in debates and even running radio ads touting Fish’s candidacy alongside his own! The two actually have some libertarian-ish views in common, like opposition to the Patriot Act and NSA wiretapping, and one ad features a narrator saying: “That’s Mark Begich and Libertarian Mark Fish. True Alaskans fighting the Dan Sullivan surveillance state.”

Astute observers will recall that Tester and his allies, during his 2012 re-election campaign, devoted a great deal of effort to propping up Libertarian Dan Cox, even spending large sums on TV ads to promote him. It was definitely successful. Cox got 6.5 percent of the vote, which was probably the largest vote share of any Libertarian candidate for federal office that year. Tester only won by 19,000 votes, far fewer than the 31,000 Cox got. Begich is running a similar race in a similar state, and he could really use that same kind of help.

And this election may be close enough for this maneuver to work. On Wednesday Sullivan released a survey from Moore Information giving him a 42-38 lead over Begich. Sullivan’s internal might look positive for him in a vacuum, but it is not good news at all. For one, it follows a Democratic internal that had the race tied, plus two other polls that gave Begich leads of 8 and 10 points—with the latter coming from a Republican pollster. For another, Sullivan’s lead is smaller in his own poll than it was in most of the public polls that preceded this latest pro-Begich batch. Could Begich have really managed to turn things around after his September stumbles? Is his unprecedented ground game making the difference? Who knows, but Alaska is all of a sudden looking very exciting down the stretch….

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South Carolina Senator about running for President and helping ‘white men’…

This mornings I can’t believe he said that…….

Graham Says He’ll Help White Men as President
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who is toying with the idea of a presidential bid, joked in a private gathering this month that “white men who are in male-only clubs are going to do great in my presidency,” according to an audio recording of his comments provided to CNN.

Graham also cracked wise about Baptists, saying “they’re the ones who drink and don’t admit it.”

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FiveThirtyEight..Recountland coming to you on November 4…..

Nate Silver is probably right on that….

And things will almost usually being up in the air until December…..

Oh, the odds still favor the Republicans…..

Republicans got favorable news in Georgia on Tuesday, where a Monmouth University poll put their candidate, David Perdue, eight points ahead of the Democrat Michelle Nunn. The poll is something of an outlier relative to the consensus — nonetheless, the last seven surveys we’ve added to our database show a tie or a Perdue lead, reversing a string of polls that put Nunn ahead.

Perdue now leads Nunn 49 percent to 48 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast — with the Libertarian Amanda Swafford, whose vote share has declined slightly in the most recent surveys, projected to get 3 percent of the vote. Perdue’s chances have improved of getting to 50 percent of the vote on Nov. 4, which would allow him to avoid a runoff.

Still, a runoff in Georgia remains more likely than not. Our model gives Perdue about a 30 percent chance of winning outright on Nov. 4, while Nunn is down to only about a 10 percent chance of doing so. The rest of the time, the race will be runoff-bound.

As we’ve written before, Georgia is not the only race that might require “overtime.” Our model estimates that while Republicans have a 64 percent chance of winning the Senate eventually, there’s only a 27 percent chance they’ll be able to claim their victory within the first 24 hours or so after polls close on Nov 4. Democrats are even less likely to win a quick victory — they have just a 12 percent chance…..

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US Economy grows faster than expected @ 3.5% last Qtr….

Most economists thought the growth would be between 2.1 % and 4 %…..

The economy in the U.S. expanded more than forecast in the third quarter, capping its strongest six months in more than a decade, as gains in government spending and a shrinking trade deficit made up for a slowdown in household purchases.

Gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the three months ended September after a 4.6 percent gain in the second quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. It marked the strongest back-to-back readings since the last six months of 2003. The median forecast of 87 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 3 percent advance.

Growing oil production is limiting imports and contributing to a pickup in manufacturing, allowing the economy to overcome slowing growth in overseas markets from Europe to China. At the same time, job gains and cheaper gasoline are giving American consumers the confidence and the means to spend, brightening the outlook for the holiday-shopping season and helping explain why the Federal Reserve ended its bond-buying program yesterday.

“The fundamentals behind the consumer are improving as job growth gains traction,” Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, said before the report. “And with consumer confidence rising, that is a clear indicator that consumers are feeling better about the economy.”

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Larry Sabato..The Senate will be Close…But GOP Majority Favored….

Sabato’s Crystal Ball thinks there are just TOO MANY ways for the Republicans to find a majority…Not to come up with one….

While many races remain close, it’s just getting harder and harder to envision a plausible path for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate. Ultimately, with just a few days to go before the election, the safe bet would be on Republicans eventually taking control of the upper chamber.

We say eventually because there’s a decent chance we won’t know who wins the Senate on Election Night. Louisiana is guaranteed to go to a runoff, and Georgia seems likelier than not to do the same. The Georgia runoff would be Jan. 6, 2015, three days after the 114th Congress is scheduled to open. Vote-counting in some states, like Alaska, will take days, and other races are close enough to trigger a recount.

Generally speaking, candidates who have leads of three points or more in polling averages are in solid shape to win, but in this election five states — Republican-held Georgia and Kansas, and Democratic-held Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina — feature a Senate race where both of the two major polling averages (RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster) show the leading candidate with an edge of smaller than three points.

What makes the Democrats’ situation so precarious is that Republicans have polling leads of more than three points in five other states, all of which are currently held by Democrats: Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Two others, Democratic-held Alaska and Colorado, show Republicans leading in both averages, but by more than three points in just one. (These averages are as of Wednesday afternoon.)

The wealth of GOP targets is a reflection of the structural advantages that have favored Republicans in this election, some of which don’t have anything to do with a specific campaign….

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Ted Cruz does NOT want a moderate GOPer for President….

The darling of Tea Party hard right wing of the Republican Party says that Hillary , in his opinion, would beat a moderate GOPer in 2016….

Moderate Republican = Jeb Bush?

Sen. Ted Cruz on Thursday took a thinly veiled shot at Jeb Bush, saying that Republicans will ensure a Hillary Clinton presidency if they run a more moderate candidate in 2016.

Appearing on CNBC, the Texas Republican and tea party favorite was asked about Bush and said that presidential candidates from the party’s establishment wing — like Arizona Sen. John McCain in 2008 and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012 — consistently fail to turn out millions of voters.

“[I]f we run another candidate in the mold of a Bob Dole [in 1996], or a John McCain or Mitt Romney, we will end up with the same result, which is millions of people will stay home on Election Day, which is what happened for all three of them,” the senator said. “And if we run another candidate like that, Hillary Clinton will be the next president.”

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Election Countdown: 6 days to go…Election*Projection….

Projection Statistics for Tuesday’s Update

40 New Polls:  12 Senate, 12 House, 12 Governor, 4 Others
No Pundit Rating Changes
Generic Poll Adjustment:  New:  GOP +0.2, Previous:  GOP +0.1Party Switchers
In Democrats’ Favor
Alaska Senate  Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
In Republicans’ Favor
Georgia Senate  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
New Hampshire CD-1  Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP GainRatings Changes
In Democrats’ Favor
Louisiana Senate  Mod GOP Gain to Weak GOP Gain
In Republicans’ Favor
California CD-31  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
Minnesota CD-7  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
Rhode Island Governor  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold

Two Senate races have shed Monday’s color for a new one after last evening’s update.  But since the two party switchers cancel out each other, the projected balance of power in the 2014 Senate elections remains 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 3 Independents.

The Alaska Senate election is now projected to be a Weak DEM Hold.  Democrat incumbent Senator Mark Begich benefits from an apparent outlier poll giving him a 6-point lead to reclaim the advantage over Republican Dan Sullivan.  I’ll discuss outliers and how I’ve decided to handle them this year in the notes.

Moving in the opposite direction is the Georgia Senate election.  After a short time in the lead, Democrat Michelle Nunn has again relinquished the lead here as Republican David Perdue is now projected to earn a Weak GOP Hold I want to reiterate a point I made earlier.  Perdue’s newfound success does not imply a victory on Election Day.  Instead, all signs point to a January runoff to decide who will succeed outgoing GOP Senator Saxby Chambliss.

In the House, one race has flipped.  Last night’s numbers from the ever-changing New Hampshire 1st District re-rematch between Carol Shea-Porter and Frank Guinta fall in the Republican Guinta’s favor.  He is now projected to win by a fraction, pushing this race from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.

But back and forth they go.  Since I began tracking this race in early May, these two have switched places no less than 7 times.  And it wouldn’t surprise me if another switch or two comes down between now and next Tuesday.  With Guinta in the lead, for the moment at least, Republicans are projected to enjoy a nice increase in their majority in the 2014 House elections.  The current tally of 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats would be a net gain of 8 seats….

More on outliers and other stuff….

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