Election Countdown: 4 days to go…House Races…Election*Projection…

Projection Statistics for Thursday’s Update

36 New Polls:  13 Senate, 2 House, 14 Governor, 7 Others
59 Pundit Rating Changes:   39 favor GOP, 20 favor DEM
Generic Poll Adjustment:  New:  GOP +0.3, Previous:  noneParty Switchers
In Democrats’ Favor
California CD-52  Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
Nebraska CD-2  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Illinois Governor  Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
In Republicans’ Favor
Arkansas CD-2  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
Illinois CD-10  Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain

Other Ratings Changes
In Democrats’ Favor
Florida CD-18  Mod DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold
In Republicans’ Favor
Arkansas Senate  Weak GOP Gain to Mod GOP Gain
California CD-31  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
Minnesota CD-7  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
New York CD-18  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
New York CD-21  Mod GOP Gain to Strong GOP Gain

I mentioned in yesterday’s notes that there was a big load of pundit rating changes coming for Thursday’s update.  Indeed there was!  All four pundits updated their House ratings to the tune of 59 new race ratings.  Republicans enjoyed almost exactly a 2-1 advantage in the latest harvest of rating changes.  The dial moved rightward in 39 races and leftward in 20.  That’s a hefty margin, but much less than we saw in 2010 when Republicans would routinely garner 80-90% of the pundits’ rating changes.

Here’s breakdown of each expert I use in my House projections.  Charlie Cook updated 10 races, splitting the benefit equally between Republicans and Democrats.  Larry Sabato, who always eliminates his toss-up calls just before the election, offered 22 ratings changes.  Fifteen moved in the direction of the GOP, while seven shifted toward Democrats.  Stuart Rothenberg, who moved nine races out of the competitive category, had the most ratings changes with 16 favoring Republicans against just 7 for Democrats.  Finally, RealClearPolitics, who tend to make more frequent updates, had just four in this latest round.  Three of them favored the GOP.

In addition to all the rating changes, we also have a new generic congressional poll out from CBS News showing Republicans dominating the House landscape by a 50-42 margin.  That survey pushes the generic adjustment to 0.3 points for the GOP.

So what happened to the balance of power in the projected 2014 House elections as a result of all this shuffling?  Interestingly, the overall tally remains 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats as it was after Wednesday’s update.

But an unchanged count doesn’t mean there weren’t races impacted by all the new data.  As you can see from the summary above, Republicans and Democrats both earned two party switchers in their favor and several other races became either more or less competitive.  With 4 days left until Election Day – and four more updates to go – the GOP is projected to gain a net of 8 seats, equaling their 242-193 advantage attained after the red wave elections in 2010…..

More @….Election*Projection……

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