Turkey with ISIS knocking on the door gets moves troops to its border ….Brits enter the air campaign…Update…Turkey is in the fight…

While Turkey, a NATO members hasn’t been in a hurry to stop the movement of militant into Syria because they wouldn’t mind Syria President Assad having problems , or even gone….

But now that 160,000+ refugee’s from have crossed over into Turkey in fear of the Islamic State forces and they are fighting on the Turkish border, with shells landing there….

Turkey has mobilized its troops and will get the ok to engage the ISIS troops….

Turkey has long favored establishment of safe, or buffer, zones along its border with Syria. The Obama administration has said that would require constant air protection that it was unwilling to provide as long as the principal enemy was the Syrian government and its potent air defense system.

The need for such overflights, and the risk to any protective aircraft, now seems to have greatly diminished. Syria has kept its air defense system in what U.S. officials have described as “passive” mode while the United States and Arab partners have pounded militant positions over the past week.

Turkey, a NATO member, has been accused of aiding the militants by allowing them to traverse Turkish territory to fight in Syria. But the border fighting — coupled with the rescue of dozens of Turkish diplomats and their families who were being held by the Islamic State — has shifted government opinion.

Kobane’s fall would give the Islamic State control of a large stretch of the Turkey-Syria border. The siege has prompted more than 160,000 refugees to flee into Turkey in the past week, and shells from the fighting have landed in Turkish territory.
Turkey on Tuesday dispatched hundreds of soldiers and tanks to the Syrian border to contain potential violent spillover from the Islamic State siege on Kobane…..

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The Pentagon announced earlier Tuesday that U.S. airstrikes had targeted ISIS positions near Kobani as the U.S. looks to keep the terror network from advancing all the way to the Turkish border.

Separately, Britain’s Royal Air Force completed its first airstrikes against ISIS targets within Iraq on Tuesday. The jets destroyed an ISIS arsenal and vehicle with a mounted machine gun in a bid to assist Kurdish troops operating in northwest Iraq.

Deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes said the U.S. welcomed the first U.K. airstrikes in a post to Twitter…..

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Update….

Turkish parliament votes to authorize use of military force against ISIS in Syria and Iraq….CNN….

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Polling Updates from Politicalwire 9/30/14…Hagan, Sheehan, Ernst lead in Senate races…Walker losing in Governor race….

Hagan Still Up in North Carolina

A new Civitas poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leading challenger Thom Tillis (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 41%, when leaners are allocated to each candidate.

Shaheen Leads by Double-Digits in New Hampshire

A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) leads challenger Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 43%.

Ernst Ahead in Iowa

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) slightly ahead of Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 42%.

Key finding: “Even though the horse race numbers haven’t changed much, this is the first time we’ve found Ernst with a better net favorability rating than Braley.”

Burke Leads Walker in Wisconsin

A new Gravis Marketing survey in Wisconsin finds Mary Burke (D) leading Gov. Scott Walker (R) in the race for governor by five points, 50% to 45%.

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Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 9/30/14… New polls show Iowa’s Senate race moving away from Democrats

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jeff Singer

Iowa Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst, glamor portrait.

attribution: Joni Ernst for Senate
Republican Joni Ernst

Leading Off: IA-Sen: What a difference a few weeks makes. It wasn’t that long ago that Republicans were privately conceding that Joni Ernst was a few points behind Democrat Bruce Braley in the Iowa U.S. Senate contest. However, more recent polls have shown either a very tight race or have given Ernst the lead. And on Saturday night, things came to a head when Selzer & Co., on behalf of the Des Moines Register, released a survey showing Ernst up 44-38 on Braley. Frustratingly, though, the Register did not release crosstabs, making it difficult to peer under the hood.

But Selzer has a good reputation in Iowa, and this survey in particular seemed to fill Democrats with a little extra dread and Republicans with a little extra enthusiasm. Please read below the fold for our analysis of Selzer’s track record, and what these numbers mean for Braley…..

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Political Roundup for September 30th, 2014…Santorum and Pataki: to run in 2016?…Red Racing Horses….

Red Racing Horses

by: Daniel Surman

An odd amount of presidential news with only 35 days left until the midterm elections. It may be a function of the presidential would-be candidates stumping for this cycle’s candidates as favors to be cashed in later.

President

Cruz: With one source describing Senator Ted Cruz as “90/10 in,” the junior colleague from Texas may be hitching his presidential hopes to foreign policy with the ISIS threat looming.

Paul: The New Yorker takes a dive into Senator Rand Paul’s past, turning up some obscure vignettes that are worth a read.

Perry: Beyond his “oops” moment in 2012, some argue Perry’s status as a second-time presidential candidate who didn’t break through last time could hurt his campaign. The article specifically focuses on an audit of Perry’s Enterprise Fund that reveals the fund cut some corners when issuing funds to businesses.

Santorum: Santorum looks likely to jump into the 2016 presidential race early.

Pataki: Apparently former New York Governor George Pataki (R) is meeting with David Koch and wants to run for President.

Senate

KY-Sen: A pretty hard-hitting ad from Senator McConnell, telling the story of helping return a woman’s daughter after her ex-husband abducted her and took her to Mali. The money line is in the intro: “You don’t know how important a senator’s experience is until your child’s life is on the line.”

IA-Sen: Bruce Braley (D) and Joni Ernst (R) had at it in a debate Sunday night in a poll that showed Braley trailing his Republican opponent.

NJ-Sen: The surprisingly weak Senator Cory Booker (D) failed to draw better than a C-list challenger in Jeff Bell, who has tied his campaign to a quest for the gold standard.

NH-Sen: The NFIB is endorsing Scott Brown and running radio and digital ads on his behalf, which feature a business owner attacking Shaheen on jobs and health care reform.

KS-Sen: Both parties will make arguments in District Court today on SoS Kris Kobach (R)’s attempt to force the Kansas Democratic Party to name a replacement for Chad Taylor on the ballot. Meanwhile, Kobach is now allowing local officials to mail ballots overseas that do not list the Democratic nominee.

More KS-Sen: The Atlantic gives a thorough treatment to how Greg Orman battled his way into a tossup with Senator Pat Roberts. The bit about about Orman’s ad strategy during and after Roberts’ contentious Republican primary particularly struck me- Orman had the money to present a strong outsider message when Roberts was already bloodied and unaware of any looming threat.

NC-Sen: With DSCSS ads hammering on the issue, education is becoming a major flashpoint in the campaign. While Thom Tillis (R) has aired his own ads on the issue, he is also hitting Senator Kay Hagan (D) on ISIS and foreign policy.

More NC-Sen: The Atlantic looks at the intra-party divisions (and ambitions) that may have pushed Thom Tillis further to the right than he wanted before his race for US Senate.

MI-Sen: After several media reports emerged that Terri Lynn Land (R)’s campaign was more lackluster than expected, Democratic outside groups have taken a commanding role in defining the contenders in this race. Top spenders include Tom Steyer’s NextGen Climate and the DSCC.

MN-Sen: A new ad from Mike McFadden (R) hits Senator Al Franken (D) for voting with President Obama 97% of the time. At the end of the ad, McFadden pledges to step down if he votes 97% of the time with a sitting president or political party.

Governor

MN-Gov: Chris Christie will fundraise and campaign for Jeff Johnson (R) on October 13th in Minnesota.

AK-Gov: Unsurprisingly, an Alaska Superior Court judge ruled the “unity” Walker-Mallott (I/D) ticket can remain on the ballot based on decades of precedent and the lack of any statute banning dropping out of a race after the primary.

NY-Gov: This ad for Rob Astorino (R) takes desperation to a new level, mimicking the 1964 Goldwater “Daisy” ad  and ending with, “These are the stakes: Do we re-elect a Governor who may end up in jail?” As the article notes, the ad’s reference will probably be lost on most voters……

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Obamacare’s First Anniversary…Lower healthcare care costs…

They said it would be a costly failure….
It has been the opposite….

Jonathan Cohn writes a lengthy piece assessing Obamacare’s “health” after one year. Cohn concludes that a careful review of the data show that, despite “real flaws and shortcomings … the available evidence suggests that the Affordable Care Act is working pretty much as its designers envisioned it would.”

“Critics can legitimately take issue with the law’s goals and principles. That’s a matter of philosophical preference, after all. Performance is another matter.”

Cohn: “Overall health care costs are rising at historically low rates.”

slide1 27 Obamacares First Anniversary Report Card: The Facts

Cohn lists other facts that point to Obamacare’s overall success:

  1. More people have health insurance.
  2. People who are getting health insurance are almost certainly better off.
  3. “Winners” probably outnumbered “losers” in the new marketplaces.
  4. Premiums in the marketplaces aren’t rising quickly, and more insurers are jumping in to compete.
  5. Employer premiums also aren’t rising quickly.
  6. The net effect on the budget has been to reduce the deficit.

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Louisiana is going back to it’s Democratic majority…Poll

And THAT maybe its current US Senator’s saving grace……

Post Katrina Louisiana is coming back….

In a reversal from several years ago, Louisiana is leaning Democratic, according to a new poll.

In a Gallup poll released Tuesday, 45 percent of those polled identify as Democrats or have a Democratic lean, while 41 percent say they align more closely with the Republican Party. This is the first time that Democrats have taken a lead in Gallup’s Louisiana survey since 2010.

The pollster said the turn may be good news for embattled incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu, who faces Republicans Bill Cassidy and Rob Maness in the November midterms. Still, as Gallup points out, the current Democratic edge in the state is not as large as it was in 2008, when Landrieu was last up for reelection.

In a recent CNN/ORC poll tracking the Senate race, Landrieu led with 43 percent, and Cassidy trailed closely behind at 40 percent. Maness was at 9 percent.

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Is Martha Coakley going to lose again?

She led in Massachusetts the last time, before she lost  to Scott Brown for a  US Senate seat…..

Now polling shows that she losing support again……

That is a purely Democratic state ……

…..the polls in Massachusetts are a-changing.

A Suffolk University poll found Democrat Martha Coakley leading Republican Charlie Baker by just 1 percentage point (44 percent to 43 percent). A Western New England University survey showed Baker up 44 percent to 43 percent. And a YouGov survey put Baker up 46 percent to 45 percent.

In the seven polls taken over the past two weeks, Coakley’s average advantage has been just 1.4 percentage points. She led in three polls, trailed in three and was tied in another.

The race is too close to call at this point, and that raises the question: Is Martha Coakley going to blow it again in Yankee blue Massachusetts?

You probably remember Coakley as the Democrat Scott Brown beat in the 2010 Massachusetts special Senate election. A month before that election, Coakley led every poll by at least 25 percentage points.

Earlier this year, Coakley escaped embarrassment by winning the Democratic primary for governor, but she escaped by just 6 percentage points (42 percent to 36 percent). That was despite leading in all but one poll in the month before the primary — by at least 20 percentage points.

Coakley also had a huge lead in early polls for this year’s governor’s race. Her average advantage over Baker from January to June (as calculated by the method described here) was 14 percentage points.

Candidates usually win with early leads this large…..

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Republicans will try to tie a Hillary Clinton Presidency to Barack Obama

One of the first throw down ‘s from the Republicans in the upcoming Hillary Clinton run for President is Republican’s trying to have it seem the Hillary and her former boss will continue HIS agenda….

With President Obama’s numbers staying essentially in same place in the lower 40’s……

The GOP feels they can drag Hillary’s numbers down from the high 50’s that would overrun any Republican running against her….and tie her to any of Obama’s unpopular programs….

Republicans are working hard to define a Hillary Clinton presidency as a third term for President Obama’s White House.

Seizing on Obama’s low approval ratings, the Republican National Committee (RNC) and outside GOP spending groups are casting the president’s former secretary of State as being in lockstep with his agenda.

It is a strategy Republicans say they unveiled just in time for the midterm elections, as Clinton prepares to campaign for Democrats in tight races across the country.
America Rising, a super-PAC targeting Clinton, released a memo to supporters last week titled “Stop Hillary 2016, Obama’s 3rd Term.” In the memo, officials seek to make the case that Obama’s policies are Clinton policies.

“No matter how many of her advisers whisper to reporters that she’s different from Barack Obama, Americans still know who she is: Barack Obama Part Deux,” the memo says.

Tim Miller, America Rising’s executive director, said the group wants to remind voters that Clinton is “in step with Obama,” particularly as many Democrats are trying to distance themselves from him. Miller said the group will continue to push the message aggressively in the lead-up to the midterm elections.

The strategy is not without risks, given Clinton’s public differences with Obama on airstrikes with Syria and the threat from Islamic militants — a narrative the GOP has also seized upon.

But Republicans think their best argument against an expected Clinton candidacy to date is to tie her to the unpopular president, especially given her years advocating Obama’s foreign policy.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) picked up the theme in a speech Friday at the Values Voter Summit. “Never forget she will be Barack Obama’s third and fourth term as president of the United States,” said Bachmann, who ran for president in 2012.

The argument is a natural one for Republicans given Obama’s low approval ratings, and it extends the GOP’s argument from the midterm elections, in which they are tying Democratic candidates for the Senate and House to Obama……

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image….nydailynews

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The Secret Service goes under the microscope …Again…

That after a guy , Omar Gonzalez,, goes over the fence at the White House and we NOW find out that the fence jumper got INSIDE the building and was caught running around the offices close to entrance to the President’s upstairs quarters….

Not  a Good Look……

It turns out that Dogs used to run down fence jumpers where not sent after the guy and an inner White House alarm system was turned down…..

The Secret Service has NOT been the same since it was moved to the Department of Homeland Security….It should go back…..

Breaches of the White House fence have become more common, but most jumpers are tackled by Secret Service officers guarding the complex before they get even a third of the way across the lawn. Gonzalez is the first person known to have jumped the fence and made it inside the executive mansion.

Secret Service Director Julia Pierson has said the breach was “unacceptable” to her, and on Friday she briefed President Obama on her plans to shore up security.

Pierson is expected to face tough questions about the Gonzalez incident Tuesday at a hearing of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. The hearing is likely to cover a number of security lapses by the agency, including new revelations published over the weekend by The Washington Post about the failure to identify and properly investigate a 2011 shooting attack on the White House…..

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Note….

We have commented on Secret Service issues in the past…..

Here….Here...

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NFL agrees to neutral arbitration in Ray Rice appeal….

…from USA Today….

The NFL has agreed to neutral arbitration for Ray Rice’s appeal — a decision the head of the players union is touting as an important precedent for future cases.

In an e-mail to players Monday, NFL Players Association executive director DeMaurice Smith said the sides have exchanged names of potential arbitrators for the appeal of Rice’s indefinite suspension, which the union has claimed was a violation of due process while subjecting Rice to double jeopardy.

Normally, appeals of suspensions under the personal conduct policy would be heard by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, who also hands out the suspensions. But the Rice situation is unique since Goodell’s decision to increase his ban from two games is at the heart of the matter.

“For the first time ever, the league in the Rice Appeal, has agreed to use a neutral arbitrator which is being selected in discussions with the NFLPA,” Smith wrote in his e-mail. “The league has submitted names to us, and we have submitted names to the league; we will confer with the league shortly regarding the final choice of an appeals arbitrator.

“Although this occurs in the context of a difficult set of facts and circumstances, it is positive movement on the overall question of neutral arbitration and a fair Personal Conduct discipline process.”

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With Karzai gone Afghanistan will allow American Troops to stay….

The President can stop pretending he was going ship ALL of the American Combat troops back home from that country….

I mean after the situation going on in Iraq?

Why would the Afghan’s NOT want to have some American troops in the background?

A senior adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama says Afghanistan will sign a deal Tuesday to allow American soldiers to remain in the country past the end of the year.

John Podesta made the comments Monday at a news conference at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.

Podesta said he didn’t know if newly inaugurated President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai would be the official signing the deal for Afghanistan, but said he would sign it on behalf of the U.S.

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Nate Silver ain’t doing so good…..

…from  Politico….

By DYLAN BYERS
From USA Today:

Inside ESPN, there has been a lot of talk about the struggles of Nate Silver’s 538 website. It hasn’t even been online for a year yet, but from lack of revenue to lack of traffic to lack of advertising, it is already being billed as a “disaster” by some at the network. [An ESPN spokesman said Friday about 538: “Traffic is ahead of where it was with the New York Times.] More than a couple ESPN suits have been trying to pin these failures on Bill Simmons, I’m told. Their reasoning: Simmons wanted him, he got him, and the site is not delivering. You’re giving Simmons too much freedom, ESPN President John Skipper’s underlings complain. [Silver, you may recall, ran into these problems at the New York Times, another large media entity plagued by bureaucratic problems, partially stemming from a generation gap.]

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Ted Cruz sounds like he’s get ready to run for President….

Perhaps thinking that Barack H. Obama ran for President and NO ONE thought HE could do it….

Texas Senator Ted Cruz it appears will mount a SERIOUS effort to follow in Obama’s footsteps….

This is gonna be VERY interesting folks….

VERY….

Ted Cruz is running for president. The only thing left for him to do is say so.

According to sources close to the Texas senator, Cruz could be preparing for an end-of-year announcement and is now dedicating considerable time and effort to cultivating a foreign-policy foundation that might help his candidacy stand out in what is guaranteed to be a crowded field.

“At this point it’s 90/10 he’s in,” one Cruz adviser said. “And honestly, 90 is lowballing it.”

The senator’s choreography since arriving in Washington has long pointed to a presidential run. His office meticulously documents the details of his meetings and events to guard against opposition research. He has aggressively pursued visits to important primary states, including Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Late last month Cruz hired three prominent consultants with experience in national campaigns and extensive contacts in early nominating states. And he recently moved his chief of staff, Chip Roy, from his congressional office to the campaign operation, sending the clearest signal yet to allies inside and outside the Capitol that a bid for the White House is imminent.

Cruz’s allies in the conservative movement have long obsessed over the timing of his decision. The senator told some supporters earlier this year that he planned to decide by the end of 2014, lending added gravity to every new hire and early-state visit.

But while those allies monitor movement on the surface, perhaps more consequential than any addition to his staff or speech in Iowa is his crafting of a foreign policy portfolio designed to draw sharp contrasts—not just against Democratic opponents, but potential GOP rivals as well.

Indeed, ever since he played an instrumental role in last year’s government shutdown, Cruz has narrowed his agenda to focus on international affairs, both as an avenue to raise his profile among GOP donors and to pivot away from his reputation as a conservative kamikaze bent on wreaking havoc inside the halls of Congress. It’s an abrupt evolution for someone who ran for Congress just two years ago on abolishing Obamacare and extinguishing comprehensive immigration-reform efforts….

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White House to give $124M for extra Police across the nation…

While the money is welcomed….

Mayors will have to think long and hard about accepting it….

It only lasts for 3 years, leaving the cities that accept the money to figure out how to pay from the extra cops for the rest of their careers , which would be at LEAST another 17 to 20 years….

The Justice Department on Monday rolled out the latest in a series of initiatives meant to curb crime on the nation’s streets, announcing $124 million in hiring grant funds for hundreds of police departments.

Attorney General Eric Holder touted the cash infusion, which will pay for roughly 950 police officers, during the launch of a new initiative meant to stem violence in select cities by increasing communities’ access to the Justice Department’s “wealth of resources.”

“In some cities — and particularly in small sections of those cities — crime rates have remained stubbornly, and unacceptably, high,” Holder said during remarks at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives Washington headquarters.

The program, dubbed the Violence Reduction Network, is focused on Chicago, Detroit, Wilmington, Del.; Camden, N.J. and; and Oakland, Calif.

The funding for new police officers, however, is not limited to those areas and will benefit 215 law enforcement agencies around the country. Administered through the agency’s COPS Hiring Program the grants will provide up to 75 percent of entry-level salaries and fringe benefits for full-time officers over a three-year period…..

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Nate Silver’s ratings on polling outfits….

SurveyUSA tops the list…..

TCJ Research…bottoms out the list…..

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Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 9/29/14… Martha Coakley is losing in Massachusetts, unless she’s winning

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jeff Singer

Candidate for U.S. Senate Attorney General Martha Coakley waves to the crowd during a campaign rally at Northeastern University in Boston January 17, 2010.   REUTERS/Jim Young    (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS) - RTR28ZQE

attribution: REUTERS
Democrat Martha Coakley

Leading Off: MA-Gov: On Thursday, SocialSphere released the latest in their series of tracking polls for the Boston Globe, and Democrats got a headline they hoped they’d never see again: Martha Coakley is losing. SocialSphere finds Republican Charlie Baker leading Coakley 40-38 in the gubernatorial contest, a five-point swing in Team Red’s direction from a week before.

Coakley had lost a 2010 Senate special election to Republican Scott Brown and there have been real fears that she was too weak to defeat Baker, and this new poll seems to verify them. A recent Rasmussen poll also shows the race deadlocked at 42-42. Rasmussen has a well-deserved reputation for being an erratic (or just downright awful) pollster, but they seem to confirm that we are in for a close contest. While Massachusetts is a very blue state it has been willing to elect Republican governors, so it’s far from unreasonable to imagine Baker winning.

But wait! Only a few days ago, MassInc, on behalf of WBUR, released very different results. They find Coakley up 46-36, indicating that this is her race to lose. A week before, while SocialSphere was showing Coakley up by three points, MassInc found her leading by nine. It’s hard to say which pollster is closer to the truth right now, but it’s clear they are seeing very different types of electorates. One telling statistic: SocialSphere gives Coakley a weak 46-44 favorable rating while MassInc sees her at 51-30. There is more of a consensus when it came to Baker. SocialSphere gives him a healthy 51-24 rating, compared to MassInc’s 42-24.

However, on Friday a different MassInc poll cast Coakley’s lead into doubt. The group surveyed the 6th Congressional district, which includes Salem, Newburyport, and Lynn in the northeastern corner of the state. They find Baker leading 47-34 in the district, a troubling sign for Coakley. In 2012 Scott Brown beat Elizabeth Warren 54-46 in this district as he was losing 54-46 statewide: It’s pretty much impossible to believe that Baker can be winning this seat by 14 points at the same time he’s losing by 10 points statewide. MassInc has Democrat Seth Moulton leading his Republican rival by a realistic 47-39 margin in the district (see our MA-06 item), so it doesn’t look like this poll dramatically oversampled Republicans.

So is Coakley easily winning, or is she in for a real fight against Baker? Unfortunately, we just don’t know right now. Republicans are certainly acting like they have a chance here though. The GOP has invested millions in CommonWealth Future PAC, a group that has been running a series of pro-Baker and anti-Coakley ads. National Democrats so far haven’t spent any serious money into this very expensive state, which may indicate that they think Coakley’s doing fine.

Right now there’s a lot of uncertainty about where this race stands and these recent polls don’t make things any clearer. Assuming the polls don’t start to converge, the biggest thing to watch in the next few weeks is whether Republicans continue to invest here and if Democrats continue to hold their fire. If Team Blue is willing to commit resources here, that will be the surest sign that we have a real race on our hands…..

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