Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap 8/29/14… Brownback poll shows how internal polls can be quite unconvincing

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Steve Singiser

If you have perused our awesome new Poll Explorer feature, you already know that the last few days have brought some examples of better-than-average polling news for the Democrats.For the first time in a very long time, the Democratic nominee has been shown in the lead in polls in gubernatorial races in Arkansas and Michigan. Marquette confirmed their earlier poll showing that the Democrats have a very real shot at knocking off Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Republicans also had to be a bit surprised to see that Rasmussen gave Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor the slightest of leads over Tom Cotton in Arkansas, a race that most GOPers have been pretty confident about.

But maybe the banner headline was a double whammy of data that came out of the heartland. In our inaugural Polling Wrap of the cycle on Tuesday, we talked about how the release of internal polls can often drop us hints about the relative strengths of the parties heading into an election. In the case of Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback, however, his internal poll dump, coming in the immediate wake of a SUSA poll showing him losing to Democrat Paul Davis by a fair margin, raised more questions than it answered.

Before we look at Brownback’s plight, however, let’s grab the numbers, in the form of all the general election polls released to the public in the last three days (Aug 26-28):

AR-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 44, Tom Cotton (R) 43IA-Sen (PPP): Bruce Braley (D) 41, Joni Ernst (R) 40

IA-Sen (Suffolk): Bruce Braley (D) 40, Joni Ernst (R) 40

KS-Sen (SurveyUSA): Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 37, Chad Taylor (D) 32, Greg Orman (I) 20

ME-Sen (PPP for Shenna Bellows): Sen. Susan Collins (R) 57, Shenna Bellows (D) 33

MI-Sen (EPIC-MRA): Gary Peters (D) 45, Terri Land (R) 39

MI-Sen (Mitchell Research): Gary Peters (D) 46, Terri Land (R) 44

AK-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 47, Byron Mallott (D) 36

AZ-Gov (PPP for Progress Now Arizona): Doug Ducey (R) 35, Fred DuVal (D) 35, Barry Hess (Lib) 12

AR-Gov (Rasmussen): Mike Ross (D) 46, Asa Hutchinson (R) 44

IA-Gov (PPP): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 48, Jack Hatch (D) 35

IA-Gov (Suffolk): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 47, Jack Hatch (D) 35

KS-Gov (Cole Hargrave Snodgrass for Brownback): Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 43, Paul Davis (D) 42

KS-Gov (SurveyUSA): Paul Davis (D) 48, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 40, Keen Umbehr (Lib) 5

MA-Gov (Social Sphere): Charlie Baker (R) 38, Martha Coakley (D) 37

MA-Gov (Social Sphere): Charlie Baker (R) 37, Steve Grossman (D) 33

MA-Gov (Social Sphere): Charlie Baker (R) 44, Don Berwick (D) 19

MI-Gov (EPIC-MRA): Mark Schauer (D) 45, Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 43

MI-Gov (Mitchell Research): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 47, Mark Schauer (D) 46

PA-Gov (Franklin & Marshall): Tom Wolf (D) 49, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 24

SC-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Nikki Haley (R) 51, Vincent Sheheen (D) 36

WI-Gov (Marquette): Mary Burke (D) 49, Gov. Scott Walker (D) 47

No House polling was conducted in the past several days….



Share on Facebook