The Revenge of the GOP Establishment in Senate Primaries…

Is the Republicans Civil War turning for the establishment people?

Over the past few years, conservative outsiders, many of whom were members of the tea party, ran over the establishment in a number of key Republican primaries for the U.S. Senate. In 2010, tea-party-aligned candidates won in Alaska, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Nevada, Wisconsin and Utah. In doing so, they almost certainly cost Republicans the Senate seat in Delaware, and probably in Colorado and Nevada. Two years later, the process was repeated in Indiana and Missouri.

In choosing less presentable candidates for the general electorate, the GOP may have forfeited Senate control. If this pattern continues in 2014 and 2016, it would represent something new: Functional parties tend to choose candidates who are seen as more moderate the longer they are out of power, and Republicans have been out of the Senate since 2007 and the White House since 2009.

But, just as we would expect, the pattern doesn’t seem to be happening. Establishment Republicans look to be in good shape in many states where a more conservative candidate could cost the party a seat. (Deciding who is the establishment candidate and who is an outsider is an inexact science. But I looked to see who was being backed by establishment groups, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and who was backed by more right-leaning or tea party groups.)

Alaska – Joe Miller (outsider) trails Daniel Sullivan (establishment), the former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, in early primary polling (polls have not been conducted in the past few months). If Miller loses the primary, he could run as a third-party candidate in the general election…..

More…@ Five Thrity Eight…..

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18 thoughts on “The Revenge of the GOP Establishment in Senate Primaries…”

  1. A great title idea for this article would be “The Empire Strikes Back.”

    And I think Thad Cochran, Lindsey Graham, and Pat Roberts might still lose their Primaries.

  2. So, James, do you also think that Donald Trump will be the next Republican nominee?? Do you? Do you think that a prediction of this type is rational? Do you?

  3. The Tea Party movement is apparently on the ropes.As usually happens with Extremist groups as they mature they now spend much of their time fighting with each other,while the “leadership” uses the members contributions to enrich themselves.

    The only Tea Party groups functioning fairly well are Freedomworks and Americans For Prosperity,both funded by wealthy Right Wingers,notably the Kochs,so much for this “grassroots” movement.Basically ,Tea Partiers are nothing more than stooges for the super wealthy,a fitting end for the kooks who inhabit this ragtag group of political nuts,

    1. Let’m keep at each other!

      Gosh, does THAT mean that THEIR candidates won’t win any primaries?

  4. Det Bowers will oust Lindsey Graham. Chris McDaniel will thump Thad Cochran. Milton Wolf will defeat Pat Roberts. Joe Carr will take down Lamar Alexander.

    Those are the only Senators I can think of who will lose their Primary. Still dismayed that John Cornyn was re-nominated.

    1. Unless something crazy happens I’d say Jack is on point with his Senor Senator being a Lock….

  5. The latest Polls look good for the GOP Establishment:

    a) Tom Thillis is headed to clear the Runoff Hurdle next week in North Carolina
    b) Mitch McConnell has a 30+ Point lead over Matt Bevin rougly 3 1/2 weeks before the Primary

    c) Cochran, Alexander, Graham, Roberts will all win.

    1. Yup Daniel
      I saw a piece saying the Tea party groups are holding on to their money so far….

    1. It was that government shutdown that they THOUGHT they won that some things up for the Grand Ole Party…….
      That and the realization that if they kept eliminating electable candidates in the GOP primaries this helping the Democrats….

  6. In some ways the Government Shutdown was GOOD for the GOP because it allowed the GOP Establishment coming back to their senses.

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