Political Roundup for April 30, 2014…Wendy Davis?…Red Racing Horses….

by: GoBigRedState


NE-Sen: Ben Sasse leads Shane Osborn 31%-25% in the Republican primary, according to a poll taken by Sasse’s campaign. As with any internal poll, some skepticism should be taken with the numbers, but it does indicate a close race between Sasse and Osborn. Perhaps more importantly though is that the poll found Sid Dinsdale surging and taking 22%-indicating that a true 3-way race may be taking shape and giving Dinsdale an opportunity as the race turns nastier between Sasse and Osborn.

NC-Sen: State House Speaker Thom Tillis has all the monentum according to recent polls, and a new poll taken by PPP shows him above the 40% necessary to avoid a runoff. Tillis leads Greg Brannon 46%-20% in the poll with 11% for Mark Harris and other candidates in the single digits.

WV-Sen: Stuart Rothenberg has a good column on why female Democratic candidates Alison Lundergan Grimes in KY and Michelle Nunn in GA have paths to victory(albeit narrow paths as he points out), but Natalie Tennant in WV does not. There are similarities between the candidates, but Tennant cannot count on running against an unpopular imcumbent(as is the case with Grimes vs. McConnell in KY) or one with a strong possibility for making outrageous comments(as would be the case if Nunn faced Rep. Paul Broun). Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (R) as he points out is popular, has a reputation as a pragmatic conseravtive and has formidable political skills. He puts it well at the end by saying Grimes and Nunn need some breaks to win, but Tennant “needs divine intervention.”


ME-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll shows Gov. Paul LePage (R) tied with Rep. Mike Michaud (D) at 40% each with independent Eliot Cutler at 14%. The low percentage of undecided voters(6%) in the poll, however prompt some skepticism about the numbers. Although they appear to be good numbers overall for LePage, who is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country, the fact that Cutler only takes 14% in the poll makes it a somewhat mixed bag as a path to victory for LePage will likely require Cutler taking a higher percentage of votes away from Michaud.

TX-Gov: Democratic Governors Association Chairman Peter Shumlin is saying out loud now what many people have been saying for awhile-Wendy Davis has little chance of winning. Shumlin says “We’re hopeful in Texas but we all understand that Democrats haven’t won Texas in a long time. We hope this will be our year.”-not exactly a ringing endorsement of Davis’s chances. Of course Davis’s campaign disagrees with the assessment calling it “the uninformed opinion of a Washington DC desk jockey…”, which is a curious way to describe the governor of Vermont.


NY-11: The NRCC is abandoning support for indicted Rep. Michael Grimm (R). Although they could conceivably decide to support him again at a later date, they are likely cutting him off permanently. The move is likely designed to push Grimm out and to cover themselves from criticism from being associated with him. Grimm for his part however is vowing to fight the charges and is staying in the race for now….


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One thought on “Political Roundup for April 30, 2014…Wendy Davis?…Red Racing Horses….”

  1. In the 2012 Nebraska Senate GOP Primary, you had the two frontrunners, Jon Bruning and Don Stenberg, pounding each other to a blooded pulp, which resulted in unknown Deb Fischer sneaking into the nomination. I have the feeling that will happen again this year, with Sid Dinsdale sneaking into the nomination over Shane Osborn and Ben Sasse.

    Regarding North Carolina, some states have 40% as their Runoff threshold while others have it as 50%. Regardless, I think Tillis will easily clear the Runoff threshold with around 51%, with Brannon way back at 25%.

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