Daily Real Clear Politics Polling Numbers 11/29/13 and 11/30/13….Hillary vs Christie 2016…

The polling stays on these two at the top of their parties 2016 Presidential tickets for now….

Saturday, November 30
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 42, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +9
Friday, November 29
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination CNN/Opinion Research Christie 24, Paul 15, Cruz 11, Rubio 10, Ryan 11, Bush 5, Walker , Jindal Christie +9
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 64, Biden 12, Warren 7, Cuomo 4, O’Malley 2, Warner Clinton +52

…from RealClearPolitics….

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3 thoughts on “Daily Real Clear Politics Polling Numbers 11/29/13 and 11/30/13….Hillary vs Christie 2016…”

  1. That seems to be the poll that Zreebs was referring to.

    But go to the source and look at RealClearPolitics’ moving average of the last 4 polls (Sept. 23 – Nov. 20), which gives Gov. Christie a whopping 1.8% lead:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

    18.8 Gov. Christie
    17.0 Sen. Paul
    12.0 Sen. Cruz
    12.0 Sen. Rubio
    10.7 Rep. Ryan
    10.5 ex-Gov. Bush
    _4.5 Gov. Walker
    _4.5 Gov. Jindal

    Also note that the Rasmussen poll on Nov. 7-8 (just after the off-year election) is the only one of the four that sampled “likely voters” rather than just registered voters. Enthusiasm and antipathy can wax and wane, especially with individual candidates, but those most likely to vote in GOP preference contests had a very different set of preferences, giving Christie only a 2% lead:

    22 Christie
    20 Paul
    12 Cruz
    16 Rubio
    — Ryan
    12 Bush
    _5 Walker

    *****************************************

    ¶ ¶ But even if you look at the CNN/ORC poll the way that Jack did, it’s not that impressive for Christie.

    Gov. Christie has 24%. If you crudely add Sen. Paul’s 15% to the percentage of any one of the next three runners-up (11% Cruz & Ryan; 10% Rubio), you will get at least as large a rating. Add all four together and you see something (allowing for rounding and sampling errors) like 47%.

    After accounting for Jeb Bush’s 5%, that leaves another front-runner:

    24% undecided/won’t answer

    Who knows how or if they’ll vote.

  2. Well DSD, let’s watch the next poll and we’ll see if Christie’s lead essentially disappears as you imply.

    by the way, Rand Paul only had 13% in the CNN poll.

  3. I’m not implying (or didn’t intend to imply) that Christie’s lead will melt away quickly; it might even expand (perhaps a wave of pragmatism will seize that undeclared, uncommitted quarter of the GOP voters). The next poll might indicate something, but I doubt it will be that significant.

    I’m thinking (barring some Great Surprise) in terms of months and seasons rather than of weeks.

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