This piece basically repeats what was said when the Marist and Quinnipiac polls came out this week….
Marist has Anthony Weiner up 5% points over Quinn…..The Q Poll has Quinn up by 2% over Weiner and has him tied with Thompson, who lost to Bloomberg four years ago…..
There are two story lines here….
Weiner has gained as Quin has faltered……
Thompson has gained…..
It is this Dogs view that a possible run off would involve Quin or Thompson AND Weiner…..
It is also this Dogs view that Anthony Weiner would win in a one on one against either….
The New York City mayoral race is a zoo, and we’re all witnesses to it. Over the past two months, I said Anthony Weiner was stronger than initial polling suggested, Christine Quinn might not make the runoff (held if no candidate reaches 40% in the first round) and Bill Thompson probably would end up in the second round. The polling that came out this week makes me doubt none of these beliefs, yet the race remains very unsettled.
This week Marist and Quinnipiac released polls with slightly different, though, mostly consistent results. Marist had Weiner at 25%, Quinn at 20%, Thompson at 13%, Bill de Blasio at 10% and John Liu at 8%. Quinnipiac put Quinn at 19%, Weiner at 17%, Thompson at 16%, de Blasio at 10% and Liu at 7%. You’ll note that both surveys paint Quinn, Thompson, de blasio and Liu in nearly the same place and any differences are within the margin of error. Weiner’s higher percentage in the Marist poll may, as Mark Blumenthal noted on Wednesday, be because he’s in the news a lot and is benefitting from Marist pushing undecideds harder.
That should not be mistaken for Quinn having any sort of strong support. The Marist poll finds that among those who strongly support a candidate Weiner’s lead over Quinn’s extends to 17pt – 40% to 23%. Quinnipiac has her unfavorable rating among Democrats climbing to 31% – 12pt higher than in May and by far her highest of the year. What is going on?
While many analysts were stuck claiming that Weiner was a product of name recognition, they failed to recognize the same and perhaps to a greater extent was true of Quinn. I wrote in March that Quinn didn’t have a record that some Democrats would like once they got to know it. Anti-Quinn advertisements have been running in New York, and they clearly have had an effect.
Quinn had also been polling particularly strongly among African-Americans and Latinos in prior Marist surveys, which didn’t make much sense. Quinn is seen as a kind of heir apparent to Mayor Michael Bloomberg who polls worst among minorities. The latest Marist poll has her falling back to third among blacks at 19% and second among Latinos at 16%. Those numbers may fall further.
Weiner, meanwhile, has seen his numbers climb. In the ballot test, he’s at his high point in both the Marist and Quinnpiac polls. He’s cut his deficit in a potential runoff against Quinn from 15pt down to 2pt per Marist. Marist has his net favorable among Democrats rising from 0 to +16pt in the last month alone, while Quinnpiac show the percentage of Democrats thinking he should run for mayor up to 52% from 41% last month.
It’s easy to say that Weiner’s rise is because more people are hearing his name, but I don’t think that’s necessarily true.
My reasoning is that the Black vote will not be enough for Thompson to beat Weiner who is a carismic campaigner…..In addition, Weiner will carry the Jewish vote along with East Indians who will be sensitive to his wife ‘s Huma Abden’s background….Finally, Weiner should somewhat split the black vote (Which tends to NOT be that strong in NYC) in my opinion…..I agree that Chritine Quinn is probably NOT gonna be able to keep with Weiner and Thompson….She’s too closely tied to Bloomberg who is NOT liked very much and who manoeuvred a third term with her assistance….