Obama holding his own in ALL exceprt for Florida and North Carolina….
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (OnSight Public Affairs)
Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Purple Strategies)
Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46% (Sunshine State News)
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Gravis)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)
New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (New England College)
North Carolina: Romney 53%, Obama 45% (Gravis)
North Carolina: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Civitas)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (American Research Group)
Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Purple Strategies)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (CNN/ORC)
Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Purple Strategies)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
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It is time to start analyzing these so called “undecideds” as reflected in these swing state polls
I opined the other day that most of these types are going to eventually fall to Romney
Even The Dog agreed
Accordingly,and admittedly somewhat arbitrarily, I will begin assigning 70% of these “undecideds” in the polls analyzed here for Romney
Which in my views much more realistic than the cheerleading from the Dog in which a poll showing Obama leading but with less than 50% and listing a sometime ABSURD 10% as undecided is indicative of anything.
Viewed in such a light some of the above polling results can be seen in a different light
Even showing Romney LEADS in Colorado(Purple Strategies)Ohio(Purple Strategies)Virginia(both Purple Strategies and Newsmax/ Zogby) andWisconsin(Rasmussen)
It is time to
GET REAL
Obama is NOT “winning”
And the longer these polls relect these fairly large number of so called “undecideds” the worse it is for him!
I don’t think he’s losing either, and lots of the undecideds, when pushed, break for the President. The undecideds are largely folks who voted for Obama last time and are reluctant to do so this time. I think that fact has born out with the poll interviews, and even the conversation I had last night.
Also, I have to say this because it is more than true. Rasmussen cooks the books. They have at least a 2% Republican bias. Not sure about Purple State, but I believe the margins are very small.
The only poll that I really think is accurate is Quinnipac. Lots of interviews and they do both landline and cell phones. Older folks still talk on their landline and polls that use only that form of communication skew GOP. It only makes sense.
Polls with larger samples tend to have Obama over 50.
Now, we could discuss this all day and night. Turnout is key. If traditional Democratic groups vote, Obama wins.
That is why early voting has been so good for him.
Undecided voters at this point are those folks that will most likely not turn up on election day. Went to vote early today here in DC. A mad house like it was four years ago. I see no reluctance in the black community not to vote.
As Michelle Obama said to Jimmy Kimmell, go vote, and eat some carrots!!
I can buy that he’s not “losing”
But these battleground polls showing him “leading” by a point or two with four and five percent”undecided?”
Sorry I can’t say that such shows ANYTHING other than a tie
And that’s not winning
Jack….
While I agree with you about the undecidedness you’re making a BIG mistake in your last comment…..
You are arbatrily DISMISSING the fact that there are Good sized blocks of Obama voters THAT WILL vote for him
ON ELECTION DAY….
THE VIEW (Among insiders) IS THERE ARE VERY FEW TRULEY UNDECIDED VOTERS OUT THERE 11 DAYS FROM THE ELECTION….
THEREFORE THE POLLING PROBABLY IS CLOSE TO THE REAL WORLD STATUS OF THE RACE…..
YOU CONCLUSION JUST NOW MAKES NO REAL WORLD SENSE….
70%?????????
Come On!….
Winning is WINNING….
Isn’t that YOU Jack….
Don’t tell me you’re finding shades of GREY here?
I’m glad to see you walking back that 70% figure…..
Actually I think it’s Higher
Anyone telling a pollster today that they are “undecided” is likely not going to vote for the incumbent
This is a farly standard view among political science types that undecideds break for the challenger
You have decided Obama has this won
I haven’t
And No I don’t agree that these “leads” of one or two points with fairly large numbers of undecideds indicate much of anything
And I agree that Obama does NOT get a BLOWOUT WIN…
In fact if you listen to the campaign people for Obama they NOW speak of getting to 270 PERIOD….
The President WILL WIN because he’ll hold Ohio, Wisconsin, Pa, NM, Colo, Iowa and other states…
My guess is that he’ll squeeze out Virginia and NH…..
THAT WILL be enough for him to get the ‘W’…..
If Obama DOESN’T hold Pa or Wisconsin
He is going to lose the election
And unlike you I pay NO attention to what the various campaigns are saying as that is pure fluff to boost themselves
Virginia appears to be slipping away as well as Florida
The President appears to be holding Nevada
All the rest?
Pure tossups!
I understand your skepticism…
But Obama HAS been ahead STEADILY in the states I listed ….
MOST of them HAVE been voting for while with Obama ahead….
And the polling pundits and the indeed the Romney supporters acknowledge that Obama WILL win most of those states…
Proof is the fact that Romney One won’t be far from Ohio for the next 11 days while the President went home to sleep in his bed for the last few days…..
The proof IS in the pudding Jack…
Romney MUST have Ohio….
Ohio will NOT go to the altar with him….
And amusingly after saying that the President will NOT get a Blowout win
You then begin to count all the states he will take which if he des will net him around 300 electoral votes
Many would define that as a Blowout!
HeyI was preaching Ohio for a long time
Yes I agree
Romney has to win Ohio
Of course that’s assuming Obama holds Pa Michigan and Isconsin!
We’ll see Jack….
But just so you should know….
Obama is up +5% in Pa….Romney hasn’t been NEAR anything in the last month there and hasn’t been in the state since forever
Obama is Up +2.3% in Wiscn…..Romney has ALSO never been up in the state since when and hasn’t been in the state since forever….
I KNOW you’re gonna vote for Obama…
I’m glad he’ll win….
And be able to erase your doubts….
Indeed using your “prediction” above?
Obama wins 332 -206
I would call that a BLOWOUT!
Obama is up +4% in Micighan Jack…..Romney KNOWS that state is a lost cause ……
Really…
The paths for Romney are ALL thru Ohio….
Obama has checkmated the guy…
Romney turned to the center WAY TOO LATE….
(But his turn HAS given him votes …No Doubt….But Too late)
He, he, he….
I AM OVERCOMPENSATING
My call for Obama actually is 281 +
Be back in a bit….
Going out for a walk with my wife….
So YOU don’t even believe your own “predictions!”
That’s where “cheerleading” will get you!
I will remember that as I am sure you will become even more shrill as Election Day approaches
Perhaps we should all take a break from the polls. I for one like what I am hearing from the early voting stations in Northern Virginia. Long lines, young folks, lots of minorities.
Watch this, it will make you laugh, and it’s true.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Y0aydhFHNE&feature=player_embedded
In fact I DO remember my
Prediction
Obama 281+
That prediction allows for movement
And is also JUST a
PREDICTION
I agree Keith
Actually I’ve been watching the sports channels more instead
Of the cable news channels these days
The polls go up and down
I have to post them
But they actually have been static for the last week
After Obama came back from the debate
Early Obama headwind in ANOTHER state….
from twitter….
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
SOS has posted the latest NV numbers for early voting (not all rurals in). Ds up 10% in early vote, about even in mail: http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2501 …