….from the Blogging Caesar at Election Projection…..
|EP update for October 24 – Tight state races abound in presidential contest|
|Four states within one-half point
The election battle between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is nothing if not a toss-up right now. A quick look at several predictors reveals just how uncertain the outcome is two weeks out. President Obama’sjob approval is hovering just below 50%. That a precarious position for an incumbent president seeking re-election. National head-to-head polling, another important metric, is within a point with Romney leading 47.7% to 46.8%. Both of these indicators lean ever so slightly to the challenger.But the closeness of this race doesn’t stop there. Check out the state battleground projections here at Election Projection. You’ll find no less than four states in my state-by-state summary projected to go to one candidate or the other by less than one half of one percent. And among these, two currently lean to Obama, Ohio (+0.46%) and New Hampshire (+0.41%), and two tilt toward Romney, Virginia (+0.24%) and Colorado (+0.10%). The President owns a slight advantage here since, with these four states split 2-2, he leads the Electoral College projection 281-257.
Clearly, there’s a competitive game afoot. And so many factors will exert weight on the dynamics of this election down the stretch. How will Monday’s end to the debate season move the needle? How much, if any at all, are the polls modeling too heavy a Democratic turnout? What effect will late deciders, who typically break for the challenger in these races, have on the final votes? Will there be an October surprise to shake things up? And what about that crucial turnout? How will each party’s enthusiasm, or lack thereof, impact the makeup of 2012′s version of the electorate?
I don’t have the answers to these questions, but I sure am looking forward to finding them out on Election Day. Until then, I’ll be crunching like crazy the avalanche of polling numbers and pundit predictions to offer you some of the most comprehensive election projections on the web. We have just 13 days to wait now, so buckle up and hold on. It’s going to be a white-knuckled finish!