Daily Kos Photo….
Barack H. Obama had a VERY GOOD Debate…….
He did what he HAD to do…
He did NOT let Mitt Romney get away with rolling him…
On several occasions doing a ‘Biden’ by challenges WHILE Romney talked….
Candy Crowley gets a Emmy…
She kept the debate mostly on line…..
Obama will get props on the Libya Terrorism answers.
And on his ‘buck stops at his desk’
And that HE called the Libya action terrorism….
The President did …..
And the tape IS ALREADY up….
Obama also got that 47% issue dropped in…
Obama also got voters on immigration…..
The President spoke about people also again….
Mitt Romney about Busness…..
The tax issue came out as NOT adding up….
Obama went back to this several times….
But Romney would change directions on those questions…
Both guys did NOT go on about Guns….
The issue is TOXIC…..
Of course there was Mitt Romney also claiming that single parent families contributed to violence he had my wife screaming at the TV…
Contraception….
‘Binders’ of women to be hired in Mass Government
And Romney threw Bush II under the bus twice (China and Budget)….
For me…
This was a VERY Good Debate…..
Obama wins Hands down and SHOULD get movement back to him in the polls….
Barack H. Obama brought HIS Gangster tonight to Hempstead….
Now that movement will not be off the charts but Obama should get HIS Swing states back more or less….
Debate Transcript…..Here
CBS Snap poll…..
Obama 37%
Romney 30%
Don’t know 33%
PPP Snap Poll in Colorado…
Obama 48
Romney 44
Indies….58/36 Obama
CNN Poll
Obama 46%
Romney 39%
Oh, Yea….
Romney threw George Bush UNDER the bus….
Twice …..on the Budget given to Obama
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Say what? Sometimes I cannot decipher you.
I know you think Obama has this thing locked up, stock, and barrel, as you have said for years now, but polling, on average, indicates the race is a tie.
But everything that has happened since the first debate has indicated unmistakable movement away from Obama and towards Romney.
Incumbents have rarely won close races for reelection, although GWB did.
But by this point in October, GWB was polling about 3-4 points better than Obama is now.
It is tough for an incumbent to come from behind this late in the game, when you consider something like the current Gallup poll. It’s theoretically possible, but it has never been done before.
Guys
The last debate
IS
ABOUT
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Ah, Corey returns with the spin!
May I repeat
When Romney wins a debate
He Wins
When Obama wins a debate
Romney Wins
Yes, I think the fact that is about foreign affairs is going to benefit Romney.
People, including those in your much touted flash polls from last night, have already concluded that Romney will be better on the economy and has a clearer plan for the future, so any current, negligible “lead” that Obama has on foreign policy issues has the potential to be majorly eroded, as Romney is likely to demonstrate his knowledge and competence on those matters, while continuing to hammer away at the weak points of Obama’s failed policies, especially in the Middle East.
You do realize that after the debate last night, Candy Crowley had to go on CNN and state that Mitt Romney was essentially right on the Libya flare-up that she made a mistake in getting involved on.
Still though, the election is more likely to be decided by the economy, and the trends on that have been moving towards Romney.
james, anything you disagree with is “spin” I am sure, but it might do you some good to listen to someone who disagrees with you for a change and to consider that all your “gut feelings” just may not be correct, such as the way you were certain Democrats were going to hold the House in 2010, all the way up until Election Day.
I scanned your comments during and right after the first debate and you thought Obama won that won too. Woops.
You were certain there would be major movement towards the Democrats are the VP debate and all we have seen from Gallup at least in the last 7 days is a 6 point shift to Romney among likely voters and a 7 point shift among registered voters.
By the way, if Obama loses in 2012, will you be inclined to support a comeback effort from him in 2016 or would you prefer someone new?
To answer Corey
I believe we DO HAVE a poll tonight with Obama ahead
We DO OBAMA ahead in Ohio
We Do have Obama with MORE EV’s
But Romney is ahead?
Oh, I forgot EV’s elect a President
Gosh
What’s gonna happen if and WHEN
Obama ‘s poll number reflect HIS debate performance?
CNN HAS Obama winning
But seems to want it BOTH WAYS these days
Making sure for BOTH debates to having BOTH GUYS
Win something
Like with CNN
what is the focus group made up of?
Obama “has more” EV because he has California, New York, Illinois, and probably Pennsylvania, but he certainly does not have 270 when the Tossup/Margin of Error states are taken into consideration.
Yes, Ohio will be very important. If Romney wins it, it would be nearly impossible for Obama to win. We did not really see any Ohio polls the past week (besides PPP/Kos) which is kind of curious, but reporters are saying that insiders from both parties, looking at private polling, are saying the race in Ohio is a tossup with Romney having gained momentum.
We will see if there is a Debate #2 bounce. I kind of doubt it, while also saying that I think the Gallup poll today is probably a little generous to Romney and it is unlikely to hold.
The first debate was by far the more important of any debate this year, and while Obama certainly put in a better effort than he did in the first debate, the general consensus of the public is that it was a tie.
The CNN focus group last night was of Ohio voters, most of whom had voted for Obama in 2008.
A slight plurality of them said Obama “won” the debate, but there was no real movement in votes, and I believe a small majority of them said that Romney had the better ideas of something like that.
The Fox News and MSNBC focus groups were far more heavily favorable of Romney over Obama.
Obama helped himself in the short term at least last night, but hard to see how Romney was really hurt any. After Debate #1, you guys needed a more convincing outcome.
Well I’ll agree that the first debate WAS most important
We’ll see if Obama gets any bounce out of yesterday’s performance
Which WAS MUCH BETTER
I’m of the opinion that the President WILL
WIN Ohio AND Virginia while keeping most of the swing states
Those two should assure him a second term
As we both know it will have to be a heavy lift for
Romney
Not impossible
But certainly difficult
Again Obama WILL have early vote ballots from states where
He led no matter what
In addition, it seems that down ballot races will assure the democrats a continued majority in Senate
The HOUSE will reman Republican
But I think by less than the 25 seats now
The next debate is on foreign affairs
Mitt better study up
The president made his base happy last night
That’s what was needed
Democrats need to turn out and vote
I’m gonna guess like I said this morning
The number of undecideds are probably
Very small no matter what they tell the pollsters
The Obama team may already be starting to walk away from Virginia (and Florida). They already have from North Carolina.
“It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.”
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017
Seems like the new Democrat position is to gamble everything on clinging to Ohio.
And take it for what you will, but there was a Virginia poll yesterday showing Romney ahead by 11.
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/10/16/4916387/new-mirror-image-gallup-poll-shows.html
Whats up with this?
http://wcvoters.org/files/public-policy-polling-oct-2012
PPP/Kos poll of Washington, with respondents saying they voted for Obama by 20 points more than McCain in 2008 (three percent more than the actual margin) and yet Obama is only ahead by 5 points right now in WA?
Funny they are making fun of Romney’s quote about a binder full of women…I said out loud while running on my treadmill, his cabinet was half women because he married them all…
That was his great-great grandfather bdog.
We ARE operationg in TWO different Universes…..
Candy Crowley CORRECTLY advised Mitt Romney of the President’s stament in the Rose Garden…
In addition, The President made a STRONGER statment about the attack being terrorism the NEXT day…..
I’m glad you’re happy to have Romney talk about foreign affairs…..
That’s because you…Like Romney JUST SWITCHED it up to the Economy and jobs?
The Economy?
Yea….
President Obama or the Mitt Romney
WHOM DO YOU TRUST?
WHO GETS the Job?
If you scaned my commenets wyou saw that I typed that Obama LOST the debate to Romney…
I have TYPED THAT at least a DOZEN Times here….
I had NO Problem admitting that….
I see you gave a begruding Obama won on Weds….
Then took it back under the color of some CNN micro poll….
Give me a break….
You are incorrect about Libya. Obama made a general statement about terrorism in the Rose Garden, on 9/12/11, in the context of speaking about 9/11/01 as well. He never said that the action in Libya was a terrorist action. For two weeks, he pointedly refused to say that, even as other members of the Administration did. Obama spent a very long time talking about an irrelevant YouTube video and saying that it was a protest, when he knew for a fact that was not the case.
A few minutes after the debate ended, Crowley was on CNN saying that they checked the transcript of what was said in the Rose Garden and Romney was technically correct.
On the economy, I trust Romney of course, and it seems like most Americans, especially those who have been watching the debates, feel the same way.
While the first debate was going on, during your running solo commentary to yourself (although Keith chimed in to say how well Obama was doing and how poorly Romney was) you were saying that Obama was winning the debate, and you only changed your mind after that after hearing the media reaction and some stuff from your son’s friends or something like that.
I think Romney won the second debate, for the record, but it was closer. I’ll give you that!
The last THree Vrginia polls have Romney UP…(He, he, he by +1,+2 and a big +1!)
But the RCP AVERAGE is Obama +.8%…..
So I don’t think Obama is gonna walk AWAY from Virginia….
Actually I think Obama is gonna carry the state….
I posted a Virginia poll above showing Romney ahead by 11.
I do not happen to think Romney is ahead by that much, but I do think Romney will win Virginia, as of now.
Yup….
Let me repeat your question…..
….’yet Obama is only ahead by 5 points right now in WA?’
He, he, he…..You ARE saying he’s UP right Corey?
Here is Candy Crowley saying after the debate last night that Romney was “right in the main.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_8KwR4N3Gw
I am sure this will all be revisited in Monday’s debate, because Obama was caught being dishonest about Libya.
Anyways, I will try to stop by here and see if anyone is around to chat sometime next week, time permitting.
Don’t worry, Obama will carry WA. Not sure what is going on with that PPP poll, but it would have to be pretty troubling for any sample showing that his vote total from 2008 is dropping by 15 percent.
Bye.
Not Me……
Obama gets its it…..
And if I’m right ….
Yesterday had The Swing states ALL back in the Obama column…
The Debate…
Watched by MORE American’s than ANY OTHER….
Will HELP the President to put more states BACK in HIS column
Ok, I just can’t get away here, huh?
The tv ratings of last night’s debate confirmed it was not as watched as the first debate. Not really a surprise there.
Swing state polls from today just show a whole bunch of 2008 blue states in the MOE. As you have been told many times, a 1 or 2 point race is not a “lead” for either candidate.
Many states are very close, but all of them are ones that went Obama last time. I was pretty surprised to see that one poll now has Wisconsin down to a 1 point race, after Obama had led in that same poll by 9 points a couple weeks ago.
I’m NOT worried at ALL….
The second debate with the widest audiance had Obama sending Mitt Romney hurrying off the stage after The President Beat him…..
Except for CNN and their we’re gonna have a tie BS…(They had Romney with the win Also)
Just about EVERY other poll had Obama coming out on top……
The swing statres are back to Obama…
We’re waiting for Obama to get a bounce from the debate win…
And Obama STILL has the lead in Ohio and in TOTAL EV’s!
WHAT ME WORRY?
You Corey you just did a Daniel on me….
First you say Obama is AHEAD in Virginia….
Then I point out thge last few polls are listed in the 1′s and ONE 2….
THEN you come back with the MOE????????
Come on Corey!!!
I posted the final ratings on your thread about that. The first debate had more people viewing, but the second debate was fairly close behind.
Virtually nobody in Chicagoland will be watching the third debate live, because Da Bears will be on Monday Night Football! Horrible conflict for me personally, but I guess I’ll have to give priority to the debate.
Obama is ahead by less than 1 point in the RCP average, which is definitely quite an improvement for him from before the first debate.
RCP does not include an R poll that had Romney up 7 or the poll I had linked above which had Romney up by 11 in VA, and I guess that’s fine, even though they do include the PPP/KOS Dem polls in their average.
Virginia is a dead heat now according to those particular polls used by RCP. Could go either way now. We can see what the next set of polls say, but all indications are that Romney seems to be on the uprise in Virginia. His crowds there today were huge too.
I meant it’s obviously an improvement for Romney in VA since before the first debate.
Corey, if Romney wins, I expect several of the current GOP governors to be lobbying for cabinet spots.
I also expect Romney to consider my homestate’s US Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) as a potential Supreme Court justice and the possibility of Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (R) taking the CIA gig (he did serve as a CIA officer and ex-USAF veteran).
Look for Christie to be pressured to get a cabinet gig. Jindal for HHS.
Don’t forget to see some US Senators and Reps getting jobs in the Romney administration IF he wins on Nov. 6th, we’re getting close to election day.