Photo…..AP
These THREE state WILL be barometers of the Election Night …….
I have a piece linked below …
But on MY OWN….
I’m inclined to believe that Obama WIL carry Ohio and Virginia in the end….
Florida will be close…..
But the early vote probably is Obama’s…
The logic behind the candidates homing in on the trio is simple: The way Republicans see it, Romney will have a much steeper climb winning the presidency without taking back all three from the Democratic column. And in the eyes of Obama’s team, they can all but ensure a second term if they win just one of the battlegrounds.
“There are nine states where the campaign is happening, but these are the three where, in all caps, it’s really happening,” said Republican strategist Bruce Haynes.
Obama’s high command is convinced that without a sweep of Virginia, Florida and Ohio, Romney can’t make up the difference further west to reach the needed 270 electoral votes.
“Romney needs an inside straight, he has to have all three,” said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina.
A second senior Obama official, looking at swing-state leads turning into swing-state ties since the first debate, said the electoral ramifications of the trio “is something that gives me a certain level of optimism.”
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If Romney [starting with 191 electoral votes, inc. Ariz. (11), Mo. (10) & Ind.(11)] takes Ohio (18), Florida (29), Virginia (13) and North Carolina (15), he’d have 266 electoral votes. To be elected president, he’d still need one of these states:
Nevada (6)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Wisconsin (10) or
New Hampshire (4)
or (even less likely)
New Mexico (5)
Michigan (16) or
Pennsylvania (20)
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/ecalculator#_
Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada all voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, but all of them except Arizona & Missouri voted for Barack Obama and against John McCain in 2008.
Iowa and New Mexico voted for Al Gore in 2000 but against John Kerry in 2004.
New Hampshire voted against Gore (by a small plurality) in 2000 but for Kerry in 2004.
The other states in my previous post, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, voted Democratic in 2000, 2004 and 2008, for Gore, Kerry and Obama.
Looking at the same electoral-vote calculator a slightly-different way (that in the end means the same thing):
If Mitt Romney should take every state that ever voted for George W. Bush (i.e. inc. Iowa, NH & NM) except for Florida (29), he loses 267-271 (or 268-270 if Maine’s 2nd Cong. Dist. votes GOP). Ohio, NC, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada (plus Iowa, NH, NM & the McCain states) aren’t quite enough without Florida.
If Mitt Romney carries Florida but loses Ohio (18), Virginia (13) and the Gore-Kerry-Obama states (242) to Barack Obama, Romney loses 265-273 (or 266-272). So even should Romney carry Florida, he still needs to take at least five electoral votes from either Ohio, Virginia or some state which hasn’t voted Republican since 1988 or 1984 (in Minnesota’s case, since 1972).
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/ecalculator#_
Hello DSD on your 11:54 PM
Again Obama is carrying Ohio, Nev, Iowa, Wisc and NH at this time along with NM, Mich AND Pa…….
We are bending over backwards to give hypotheticals?