by The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection……
| EP update for October 15 – Gallup approval number still in as is, Democrats claim another Senate seat |
No change to projection methodology
Last week, I lamented a mid-season change in the way Gallup is arriving at it job approval numbers for President Obama. Since Election Projection is dependent on that metric as a vital part of my projections, the alteration confronted me with a decision on how to proceed. I have decided to continue using Gallup’s number as is without trying to inject any modifications to it.My reasoning for this conclusion is twofold. First, as readers have pointed out, Gallup’s adjusted numbers are still in line with other pollsters who test Obama’s job approval. And, second, with a multitude of data points included in my presidential projections, a couple points in Gallup’s approval does not impact the numbers enough to justify tampering with it.
Romney captures popular vote lead
The first debate bounce is in the books and the fallout for the Obama administration’s gross cover-up surrounding the terrorist attack in Libya appears to be starting to exact its impact on the numbers as well. The challenger is now ahead by a couple points in most national polls and has moved ahead of the President in the projected popular vote here at EP for the first time in months. However, with Ohio and Virginia still stubbornly blue, the electoral vote projection remains in Obama favor at 294-244.
Today’s new blue race: Arizona Senate
Jon Kyl’s retirement presented Democrats with a decent shot to pick up this Southwestern seat. Until recently, it looked like Republican nominee Jeff Flake would be able to thwart that opportunity. However, polls released in October so far have given Democrat Richard Carmona a slight lead. Yesterday’s offering from Behavior Research show the Democrat up by 4 points. Couple that with a Public Policy Polling (D) survey from October 3 with him up by 2, and you have another blue state on the Senate projection map.
If things stay the way they are projected at the moment, instead of sporting a new Senate majority as many Republicans expect, the GOP may be facing an even larger Democratic advantage come January. What a turnaround from just a few weeks ago when Republicans were projected to enjoy a 52-seat majority!
| October 15 Election Projection Update |
| Electoral Votes |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Barack Obama |
294 |
294 |
no change |
| Mitt Romney |
244 |
244 |
no change |
| Party switchers: none |
|
| Popular Vote |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Mitt Romney |
49.6 |
48.9 |
+0.7 |
| Barack Obama |
48.9 |
49.5 |
-0.6 |
| Party switchers: none |
|
| U.S. Senate |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Democrats |
53 |
52 |
+1 |
| Republicans |
45 |
46 |
-1 |
| Independents |
2 |
2 |
no change |
| Party switchers: Arizona |
|
| U.S. House |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Republicans |
240 |
240 |
no change |
| Democrats |
195 |
195 |
no change |
| Party switchers: none |
|
| Governors |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Republicans |
32 |
32 |
no change |
| Democrats |
17 |
17 |
no change |
| Independents |
1 |
1 |
no change |
| Party switchers: none |
|
|
|
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There are no doubt some on this blog (if you’ll allow me to hazard to venture a wild, unsupported guess), who might be inclined to believe that Gov. Brewer, Sheriff Arpaio and the Ariz. GOP need to put more emphasis on controlling the Hispanic vote.
Yup!
YOU GOT THAT RIGHT DSD!
Round’m Up!