Afternoon People!
Some Tweets from PPP about the Impact of the VP Debate:
VP debate looks like a draw in the swing states where we launched polls tonight. Not a game changer either way
When we release the Ohio poll tomorrow there will be a breakdown of people who’ve already voted vs. have yet to vote
Ohio looks pretty darn close on the first night of our poll there. We’ll do more calls tomorrow and have results in the evening.
As I said all along after the VP Debate it would have NO IMPACT on the Presidential Race.
Daniel G.
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The main impact was rallying the Democrats who were down after Obamas poll fall
But any real impact on the election?
No
That will be decided around the question
Will things be BETTER with Mitt Romney as President?
That’s what this boils down to
Most people “like” Obama better
So if they feel that Romney will be no BETTER than Obama
They’ll probably stick with the President
But if they answer in the affirmative
Romney will likely win
Ok…
On the Obama approval numbers….
I and the others put MORE weight on that than you do….
I disagree with your conclusion….
If you In fact Like Obama above than 50% where Obama HAS Been opposite the polling (Remember he ONLY trails in most swing states by 1 to 3% and you’ve championed the MOE thing) he’ll get those states in the end , plus he’s had early votes as a cushion…
So I’m with the 40% Romney
Obama + 60%….
I suspect PPP will have Ohio closer than Marist & CNN this week.
Okay
If you don’t buy the MOE “thing”
Then give me your take on the Gallup mystery
How they have Obamas approvals ABOVE fifty percent the past three polling periods(the BEST he’s done all year)
Yet he tails Romney by two points in the actual poll
Jack,
here is the Reason for Obamas Job Approval being higher over the last few Days:
“So, what’s going on? Alan Abramowitz of Huffington Post and The Democratic Strategist noticed that Gallup has increased its share of nonwhites from 27 percent the week of the [Democratic National] convention to 32 percent last week, a nearly 20 percent boost.”
In other words Gallup has CHANGED his methodology 4 weeks before the Election. Why do that so close to a National Election is beyond my thinking.
Bottom Line is:
Gallup increased the share of minorities to boost Obamas JA.
Romeny will NOT carry Ohio
Daniel……
IT’s just NOT his state
Mark my words Daniel….
It’s GOT to be a filter factor thing…..
I’m ALSO at a loss on that…..
But I’d bet the Approval ARE correct….
I don’t think I’m wrong in saying EVERYBODY else in the business thinks they ARE RIGHT
Even Romney’s people….
stop complaining Daniel…
the change gave Mitt the lead in the National polling…
Wrong james,
I’ve you increas the share of Non-Whites in the Poll (presumably African Americans, Hispanics and Asians) OBAMA SHOULD BE LEADING and not Romney.
And YOU cannot mix up the JA with the actual Ballot Test. I presume that Gallup only increased the shara of Non-Whites for the Approval and not for the Horse Race Numbers.