Open thread October 31, 2012

Five days out

the storm is gone

the polls  and excuses

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Daily Polling Numbers for 2012 for October 29, 2012…8 days out…Obama above 50% Approval…

Monday, October 29
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Pew Research Romney 47, Obama 47 Tie
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Romney 51, Obama 46 Romney +5
General Election: Romney vs. Obama ABC News/Wash Post Romney 49, Obama 48 Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Politico/GWU/Battleground Romney 48, Obama 49 Obama +1
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 49, Obama 47 Romney +2
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 50 Romney +2
Florida: Romney vs. Obama CNN/Opinion Research Romney 50, Obama 49 Romney +1
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama Elon University Romney 45, Obama 45 Tie
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama Boston Globe Obama 52, Romney 38 Obama +14
Maryland: Romney vs. Obama Baltimore Sun Obama 55, Romney 36 Obama +19
Massachusetts Senate – Brown vs. Warren Boston Globe Warren 47, Brown 47 Tie
Ohio Senate – Mandel vs. Brown Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Brown 51, Mandel 47 Brown +4
Florida Senate – Mack vs. Nelson Rasmussen Reports Nelson 49, Mack 46 Nelson +3
Florida Senate – Mack vs. Nelson Sunshine State News/VSS Nelson 49, Mack 44 Nelson +5
Connecticut Senate – McMahon vs. Murphy Rasmussen Reports Murphy 51, McMahon 45 Murphy +6
Hawaii Senate – Lingle vs. Hirono Honolulu Star-Advertiser Hirono 57, Lingle 35 Hirono +22
Maryland Senate – Bongino vs. Cardin vs. Sobhani Baltimore Sun Cardin 50, Bongino 24, Sobhani 14 Cardin +26
North Carolina Governor – McCrory vs. Dalton Elon University McCrory 52, Dalton 38 McCrory +14
North Carolina Governor – McCrory vs. Dalton Rasmussen Reports McCrory 54, Dalton 35 McCrory +19
Maryland 6th District – Bartlett vs. Delaney Baltimore Sun Delaney 42, Bartlett 41 Delaney +1
Generic Congressional Vote Politico/GWU/Battleground Republicans 46, Democrats 45 Republicans +1
Generic Congressional Vote Rasmussen Reports Republicans 46, Democrats 43 Republicans +3
President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 51, Disapprove 44 Approve +7
President Obama Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 49, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +2
Obama and Democrats’ Health Care Plan Rasmussen Reports* For/Favor 39, Against/Oppose 54 Against/Oppose +15
President Obama Job Approval ABC News/Wash Post Approve 50, Disapprove 48 Approve +2
Direction of Country Politico/GWU/Battleground Right Direction 37, Wrong Track 56 Wrong Track +19
President Obama Job Approval Politico/GWU/Battleground Approve 50, Disapprove 49 Approve +1
Obama: Favorable/Unfavorable Politico/GWU/Battleground Favorable 51, Unfavorable 46 Favorable +5
Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable Politico/GWU/Battleground Favorable 52, Unfavorable 43 Favorable +9

from realclearpolitics….

from twitter…..

In new WaPo-ABC numbers, twice as many indies say they are worse off than say better off since Obama was elected.

We are skipping our tracking poll tonight as well

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About that Romney surge?…10/29/12…

The latest numbers, from TPM’s polling composites:

Compared to last Wednesday, President Barack Obama has retaken the lead in Colorado and Virginia. Florida remains the flip of a GOTV operation, and North Carolina remains Mitt Romney’s best bet.

The official composite includes all the crap GOP pollsters, like Rasmussen et al. For fun, I decided to check what would happen if I excluded Rasmussen in some of these states.

In North Carolina, that 2.5-point deficit would be 1.2 points.

In Ohio, that 1.4-point lead would be a 3-point Obama lead, 50-47.

In Wisconsin, that 2.2 lead would be a 3.2-point Obama lead, 48.7-45.5.

So Ras is single-handedly worth 1-2 points in the composite for Romney.

Today’s numbers bring back something we had discussed extensively prior to the first debate—Romney’s likability ceiling. Obama is at 48 percent or better in every state except for North Carolina. Romney is at 48 percent or better in just three of these nine states. Look at how that compares to Romney’s level of support back on 10/19, the strongest Romney day in these snapshots:

Even with Rasmussen and the baby Rasmussens like Gravis propping up his numbers, Romney is down in half of these states. Given that he’s losing in most of them, he needs his level of support to rise in all of them.

Now here are Obama’s numbers:

Average all those numbers out, and Romney has declined 0.33 points the last 10 days, while Obama has gained 0.71.

The campaign will now be on hold over the next several days as national polling grinds to a halt and the eastern battlegrounds focus on riding out Sandy. Given the trends in this race, it’s not a good turn of events for Republicans pretending to have any shot at the White House.

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Election*Projection Update for Oct. 29, 2012…..Obama leads in EV’s….

from the Blogging Caesar at Election Projection…..

EP update for October 29 – Obama leads Electoral Vote projection entering last full week
Countdown:  8 days until Election Day
With just a week and a day left before Election Day, President Obama is projected to win 290 electoral votes against just 248 for Mitt Romney.  The challenger’s projected 1.3-point advantage in the projected popular vote will be little consolation if the Electoral College turns out as it stands in today’s update.  Still, there is nowhere near enough breathing room in several blue battleground states to provide Obama any sense of surety that he’ll come out on top.New Hampshire Governor Race
I haven’t often gotten the opportunity to discuss gubernatorial races much this year.  There are only eleven on tap this year and those have been very static for the most part.  A Public Policy Polling (D) survey coming out of New Hampshire yesterday flips the statehouse projection there from red to blue.  The poll gives Democrat Maggie Hassan a 4-point edge over Republican Ovide Lamontagne in the race to replace the retiring governor, Democrat John Lynch and shifts the projection in her favor by 1.3%.  Republicans are still projected to increase their lead in governorships by 2 even after taking New Hampshire off the board.

October 29 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 290 290 no change
  Mitt Romney 248 248 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Mitt Romney 49.9 49.9 no change
  Barack Obama 48.6 48.6 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 51 51 no change
  Republicans 47 47 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 241 241 no change
  Democrats 194 194 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 31 32 -1
  Democrats 18 17 +1
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  New Hampshire

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Breaking…Gallup Stops Tracking Polling……

 

Gallup Suspends Tracking Poll

From a statement: “Gallup has suspended polling for its daily tracking as of Monday night and will reassess on a day-to-day basis. The ultimate effect on the overall picture of polling between now and this weekend, including election polling, will depend on what happens as a result of the storm, about which we will have a better understanding of on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.”

Politicalwire….

Note…

With Gallup out of the picture look for Obama’s National Averge to go Up immediatly on RCP……

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President predicts ‘War’ in the Republican party if he wins election….

That’s a UNDERSTATMENT……

President Obama said if he wins reelection, it will give him a “mandate” to work with Congress to address some of the more difficult issues facing the country, such as the pending tax increases and mandatory budget cuts that will kick in at the end of the year if Congress does not act.

“And after the election, I think that both Democrats and Republicans have to step back and say, ‘You know what, this is something that the country wants to solve,’” Obama said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. “If I’ve won, then I believe that’s a mandate for doing it in a balanced way.”

Obama said there are plenty of issues on which he agrees with Republicans, but he also said it was up to the other party to come to the table for compromise on issues like infrastructure, regulations and education. He conceded that it may be difficult.

“There are a whole range of issues, I think, where we can actually bring the country together with a non-ideological agenda,” Obama said. “The question’s going to be: How do Republicans in Congress react post-election? Because there’s going to be a war going on inside that party.”

The interview wasn’t all compromise and bipartisanship. The president also took a shot at his Republican opponent while naming some ways to generate revenue over the long term.

“I stole a whole bunch of ideas from a Massachusetts governor that I think over time is going to save us money,” Obama continued, a reference to the health care plan signed into law in Massachusetts during Mitt Romney’s term.

As the campaign enters its final week, Obama said he was optimistic…

More….

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Hurricane Sandy Update….NY Mero Area….Afternoon October 29, 2012…

New York State Governor has announced the closing of several bridges and the Holland and Queens Midtown Tunnel closing…..

He also predicted that the storm will move thru New York  land fall earlier than first predicted ….around 6 to 9 PM instead of 11PM….

The NY Governor was in the company of the Nassau and Suffolk County Executive’s…

(The local TV channel’s are pre-empting their regular programing)

Long Island Ocean surges are his major worries…..

(There have been recues on Long Island’s Fire Island)

Cuomo has been in touch with President Obama….

Who has pledged assistance…

He has called up the National Guard……

The huge storm, which picked up speed over the water on Monday morning, was producing sustained winds of 90 miles per hour by 11 a.m., up from 75 m.p.h. on Sunday night. The center of Hurricane Sandy made its expected turn toward the New Jersey coast early on Monday. The National Hurricane Center said the center of the storm was now moving north-northwest at 28 m.p.h. At 2 p.m., the center said that the center of the storm was about 110 miles from Atlantic City, where the boardwalk had been damaged, and 175 miles from New York City.

In Manhattan, the top section of a crane atop a luxury building under construction on West 57th Street near Central Park had toppled over and was dangling about 80 stories above the ground. Even with landfall still hours away, there was no holding back flooding from the advance guard of the storm — fast-moving bands of rain that lashed protective barriers in beachfront communities and then pushed inland. In Delaware, some oceanfront roads in Rehoboth Beach were underwater and structures destroyed. In Maryland, the normally placid Sligo Creek in the Washington suburb of Takoma Park turned into a torrent. In Ocean City, Md., the boardwalk pier was “significantly damaged” overnight, said Mike Levy, a public information officer for the Police Department there.

President Obama returned to the White House on Monday and met with top advisers before speaking to reporters.

“This is going to be a big storm,” he said, urging people to follow mandatory evacuation orders. “It’s going to be a difficult storm.”

Mr. Obama said the storm would disrupt the rhythms of daily life in the states it hit. “Transportation is going to be tied up for a long time,” he said, adding that besides flooding, there would probably be widespread power failures. “The fact is, a lot of these emergency crews are not going to get into position to start restoring power until some of these winds die down.” He added, “That may take several days.”

When a reporter asked about the hurricane’s impact on the campaign, the president said: “I am not worried at this point about the impact on the election. I’m worried about the impact on families, and I’m worried about our first responders.”

More…

Note….

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo IS being seen as displaying ‘Leadership’ people…..

Politics is always present…..

photo of Southampton LI, NY….Lucus Jackson/Reuters

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Daily Odds for October 29, 2012….Two Calls…My Name is Jack…

I long ago called North Carolina for Romney

I am now ready to call two more “swing” states

Nevada for Obama

Florida for Romney

Which leads to

The Daily Odds
October 29
Slightly Fair and Balanced

Obama 51%
Romney 49%

The polls remain tied basically about a week out.The ONLY thing keeping me from going straight tossup is that Obama still has a very slight advantage in Ohio and that state plus Nevada which I called above with him holding the normal Blue states would assure victory.Obama -1.

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Jobs Report could be delayed by Hurrican Sandy….The Right NOT happy….

If the numbers stay good…Obama gets No Credit..

If the September numbers are adjusted UPWARDS and Octber is back over 8% Obama will get greif over the weekend from the Republicans….

from the Washington Post...

The Labor Department has not yet ruled out delaying Friday’s jobs report due to the havoc caused by Hurricane Sandy.

“The employees at the Bureau of Labor Statistics are working hard to ensure the timely release of employment data on Friday, November 2,” the BLS said in a statement. “It is our intention that Friday will be business as usual regarding the October Employment Situation Report.”

Intense security measures surrounding the monthly jobs reports mean the numbers cannot be crunched remotely. The analysts responsible for preparing Friday’s jobs report are considered “non-essential” personnel and are not at their desks today.

The jobs report would be the last word on the economy before voters head to the polls. Last month’s report showed unemployment dropping from 8.1 to 7.8 percent, a number some conservatives questioned as suspiciously positive. …

from Politico…

Breitbart News editor-at-large John Nolte called the possibility of a delayed jobs report “outrageous.” He wrote Monday: “Not releasing October’s unemployment numbers just a few days before a presidential election would be absolutely outrageous and only further erode trust in our public institutions. It also reeks of desperation.”

Nolte joined other conservatives who took to Twitter to call foul, including Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Communications Director Brian Walsh…

 

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Jim Cantore…That Weather Guy….

The Weather Channel Guy will be in his glory for the next 48 hours ….

If you live anywhere in or around New York City, look out! Jim Cantore is headed to the Big Apple to cover Hurricane Sandy for The Weather Channel. On October 26, Cantore revealed his travel plans and posted onTwitter that he’s headed for New York City to cover yet another late season hurricane. This is terrible news for millions of residents who live in the heavily populated region.

The Weather Channel goes into full alert modeor Hurricane Sandy.

Jim Cantore is the “Mike Wallace” and “Where’s Waldo” of meteorology. When he shows up, residents expect the weather to get interesting. Jim’s passion for field reporting during extreme weather events is well known among TWC viewers. Whether it’s “thunder snow“, an ice stormtornado chasing, or a category 5 hurricane, there is no place this seasoned and experienced meteorologist would rather be than right in the “eye of the storm.”

First and foremost, Jim Cantore is a hurricane specialist, having reported live from Hurricanes Andrew, Bonnie, Fran, Georges, Gustav, Floyd, Katrina, Mitch and Rita. In 2011, he reported live from Battery Park as Hurricane Irene made landfall in NYC and flooded parts of Lower Manhattan. He later moved to Vermont to cover Irene’s after effects in New England. Jim is a member of both the National Weather Association and the American Meteorological Society. He holds the AMS Television Seal of Approval…..

More…

Photo….webobups.blogspot.com

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Alan Abramowitz Does Not Like Rasmussen…But his statistical model does predict that Obama will lose the popular vote

By: Sean Davis (Diary) @ Red State

Alan Abramowitz does not like Scott Rasmussen. Who is Alan Abramowitz, you ask? I have no idea either, but according to Google he is a professor of political science at Emory University in Georgia.  Abramowitz published a piece at Huffington Post on Saturday that all but called Scott Rasmussen a partisan hack who has no clue what he’s doing.

So what was Abramowitz’s proof?  He cited several battleground states in which Rasmussen found Romney performing better than the average of polls in the state, and that is apparently a crime.  What Abramowitz did not tell his readers is that in six other battleground states — MI, MN, MO, MT, NM, and PA –Rasmussen showed Romney doing worse than the RealClearPolitics’ average. This is what passes for intellectual rigor in Abramowitz’s world.

But that’s not the best part. The best part is that in 2008 Abramowitz presented a statistical model to predict the two-party popular vote of presidential candidates.  His 2008 model, which suggested that Obama would receive 54.3% of the two-party vote in 2008, has only three factors:  real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of the election year, the incumbent president’s net approval rating at the end of June of the election year, and whether a candidate is running for re-election.

Here’s the actual equation that Abramowitz published:  Popular vote % for incumbent party candidate = 51.417 +(0.604*GDP) + (0.109*Net Approval) – (4.265*Re-election).

According to Abramowitz’s model, a candidate would lose nearly 4.3% just by running for re-election. Each 10 points of additional net approval would add 1% to the candidate’s total, while each percentage point of GDP growth would add 0.6% to his or her final vote share.

During the 2nd quarter of 2012, real GDP increased only 1.3 percent. Obama’s average net approval rating (total approval minus total disapproval) was only 0.4 percent at the end of June. And the variable for re-election is 1.  Put all those together, and you have an Abramowitz popular vote prediction of…48% for Barack Obama.

The most recent national tracking poll from Rasmussen shows Obama at 47%. What a hack.

[Addendum: A Twitter correspondent of mine tells me that Abramowitz “tweaked” his model in July, when it became clear that his 2008 model would predict an Obama loss. The new and improved Abramowitz model predicts an Obama win, naturally.]

Source….

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Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 10/29/12: We move MA-Sen from ‘Tossup’ to ‘Lean D’

by David Nir

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by David Nir

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner

Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.

Race Ratings:We’re making four changes to our race ratings this week, including two big moves on ourSenate chart and two more on our House chart. All four favor Democrats.

• MA-Sen (Tossup to Lean D): I’m betting that Scott Brown is seriously regretting his agreement with Elizabeth Warren to bar most third-party spending on the race, because you know he’s thinking that a $5 million blitz by Karl Rove sure would be tasty right about now. That’s because the polling’s simply been awful for the Republican senator since Labor Day, ever since the contest took a negative turn. If Brown could have stayed positive and had someone else do his dirty work, he might still be in this thing. But he’s sullied his image, and Massachusetts’ traditional blue instincts have reasserted themselves enough to power Warren to a distinct advantage.

• MO-Sen (Tossup to Lean D): We were among the biggest naysayers when Todd Akin’s epic implosion rocked the Missouri Senate race—surely, we figured, once Akin successfully called the GOP establishment’s bluff and refused to drop out, Crossroads and the NRSC would be right back in the game, and conservative hostility toward Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill would overpower any lingering disgust toward Akin. But even after they could no longer replace Akin on the ballot, Republicans stayed out, McCaskill woke her attack machine out of temporary stasis, and the contest has, remarkably, veered back into the blue column. Why the GOP didn’t spend some of the millions they’re wasting on Josh Mandel on Todd Akin instead, I’m not sure I can answer. But the fact is that they haven’t, and Claire McCaskill may just be the luckiest senator in living memory.

• CA-36 (Lean R to Tossup): I admit it: I was very spooked by the revelations that Democrat Raul Ruiz had once read a letter in support of activist Leonard Peltier, who was convicted of murdering two FBI agents in 1975. But despite some ugly headlines, I guess Peltier has about as much resonance these days as Sacco and Vanzetti (and if you have to Google that, well, I’ve just made my point). What’s more, GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack’s attacks on Ruiz have inspired local Indian tribes (who almost never get involved in politics) to openly chastise her. (See CA-36 bullet below in our “House” section for more on this.) Indeed, Bono Mack’s relationships with minority communities in her district seem to be a real problem for her, especially Latinos, whom she promised to reach out to …after the election. That’s a pretty serious issue, seeing as Hispanics make up 27 percent of the voting population of the redrawn 36th, about a quarter of which is brand-new to MBM. She’s also never faced a serious race, and her rust has put this one into serious play for Team Blue.

• GA-12 (Lean R to Tossup): After the Republicans in control of redistricting screwed Rep. John Barrow something fierce, it was hard to imagine him hanging on: After all, his district see-sawed incredibly, going from 54-45 Obama to 56-44 McCain, one of the biggest swings in the country. But Barrow’d always been good (perhaps a little too good) at cultivating a very conservative profile—and he’s canny enough for me to believe that he knew this day was coming. A recent Democratic internal had him up 48-45 over Republican Lee Anderson, and Anderson never responded. (A dusty Anderson internal from August only had him up 1, anyway.) While Dem third-party groups have been outspent $2.6 mil to $2 mil, Barrow’s crushed Anderson in fundraising, $2.7 mil to just $800K, and Anderson had to spend most of his haul on winning the GOP nomination.

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To my peeps in the Northeast, stay safe…Whatever Works…

by  @ Whatever Works

(Thank Elvis, Romney is still all talk.)

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Banks Waive Fees for Residents in Path of Hurricane Sandy….

…from Time….

Anticipating a storm-related cash crunch and bill-paying delays, Chase and Citibank announced on Sunday that they would waive overdraft, ATM, and/or late fees for customers in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut who will get hit by historic Hurricane Sandy over the next 72 hours.

JP Morgan Chase — the nation’s largest bank — sent an e-mail to customers Sunday night informing them that all overdraft fees and late fees on credit cards and business and consumer loans would be waived through Wednesday, Oct. 31. Customers have until the end of business Thursday to make sure their accounts and balances are up-to-date to avoid a fee.

Similarly, Citibank announced that fees would be waived for New York City residents who use another bank’s ATM, according to The Wall Street Journal. As of Sunday evening Bank of America had not announced any specific move that would eliminate fees for any of the estimated 50 million people in the path of Hurricane Sandy, which was expected to make landfall along the mid-Atlantic region Monday evening.

That’s good news for customers who would have to make deposits and payments at their local branches, many of which will be closed across the Northeast.

More….

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Open Thread for October 29, 2012…Campaign on hold for Obama and Romney….

Well a LOT of us are gonna be sitting the house for the next 48 hours…

The East Coast of the United States is closed down due to Hurricane Sandy….

Winds, Rain and water surges are starting to be felt from the storm….

This ole Dog just came back from making sure stuff is tied down in the back of the house….

I’ll be typing away here and NOT making any money from work which is closed down….

(As long as I have power..Cross ya fingers!)

I can use the rest….

I’ll have to give up the money….

At least the NY Football Giants won yesterday , right?

The polls are one thing these days…

The Republicans are selling something else….

There are 8 days until election day …November 6, 2012

(And the Big guys ain’t campaigning till Wednesday at the earliest!)

October 29, 2012

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Hurricane Political Update Oct 29, 2012 Midday…Mitt Romney comes off the Campiagn ….

Mitt Romney cancels campaign appearances …

President Obama is in the White House and will have a presser @ 12:45 PM….

twitter….

Romney follows Obama in cancelling campaign events Mon night and Tuesday 

Romney has cancelled all his events today and tmro, his campaign just announced. 8 days on calendar, but 5 or 6 days now left for campaign?

At mid day Monday basically all presidential stuff canceled through Tuesday. So if/when things resume Wednesday we will be 6 days away. Wow.

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