Five days out
the storm is gone
the polls and excuses
Five days out
the storm is gone
the polls and excuses
|Monday, October 29|
|Race/Topic (Click to Sort)||Poll||Results||Spread|
|General Election: Romney vs. Obama||Pew Research||Romney 47, Obama 47||Tie|
|General Election: Romney vs. Obama||Gallup||Romney 51, Obama 46||Romney +5|
|General Election: Romney vs. Obama||ABC News/Wash Post||Romney 49, Obama 48||Romney +1|
|General Election: Romney vs. Obama||Politico/GWU/Battleground||Romney 48, Obama 49||Obama +1|
|General Election: Romney vs. Obama||Rasmussen Reports||Romney 49, Obama 47||Romney +2|
|Ohio: Romney vs. Obama||Rasmussen Reports||Obama 48, Romney 50||Romney +2|
|Florida: Romney vs. Obama||CNN/Opinion Research||Romney 50, Obama 49||Romney +1|
|Colorado: Romney vs. Obama||ARG||Obama 47, Romney 48||Romney +1|
|North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama||Elon University||Romney 45, Obama 45||Tie|
|Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama||Boston Globe||Obama 52, Romney 38||Obama +14|
|Maryland: Romney vs. Obama||Baltimore Sun||Obama 55, Romney 36||Obama +19|
|Massachusetts Senate – Brown vs. Warren||Boston Globe||Warren 47, Brown 47||Tie|
|Ohio Senate – Mandel vs. Brown||Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News||Brown 51, Mandel 47||Brown +4|
|Florida Senate – Mack vs. Nelson||Rasmussen Reports||Nelson 49, Mack 46||Nelson +3|
|Florida Senate – Mack vs. Nelson||Sunshine State News/VSS||Nelson 49, Mack 44||Nelson +5|
|Connecticut Senate – McMahon vs. Murphy||Rasmussen Reports||Murphy 51, McMahon 45||Murphy +6|
|Hawaii Senate – Lingle vs. Hirono||Honolulu Star-Advertiser||Hirono 57, Lingle 35||Hirono +22|
|Maryland Senate – Bongino vs. Cardin vs. Sobhani||Baltimore Sun||Cardin 50, Bongino 24, Sobhani 14||Cardin +26|
|North Carolina Governor – McCrory vs. Dalton||Elon University||McCrory 52, Dalton 38||McCrory +14|
|North Carolina Governor – McCrory vs. Dalton||Rasmussen Reports||McCrory 54, Dalton 35||McCrory +19|
|Maryland 6th District – Bartlett vs. Delaney||Baltimore Sun||Delaney 42, Bartlett 41||Delaney +1|
|Generic Congressional Vote||Politico/GWU/Battleground||Republicans 46, Democrats 45||Republicans +1|
|Generic Congressional Vote||Rasmussen Reports||Republicans 46, Democrats 43||Republicans +3|
|President Obama Job Approval||Gallup||Approve 51, Disapprove 44||Approve +7|
|President Obama Job Approval||Rasmussen Reports||Approve 49, Disapprove 51||Disapprove +2|
|Obama and Democrats’ Health Care Plan||Rasmussen Reports*||For/Favor 39, Against/Oppose 54||Against/Oppose +15|
|President Obama Job Approval||ABC News/Wash Post||Approve 50, Disapprove 48||Approve +2|
|Direction of Country||Politico/GWU/Battleground||Right Direction 37, Wrong Track 56||Wrong Track +19|
|President Obama Job Approval||Politico/GWU/Battleground||Approve 50, Disapprove 49||Approve +1|
|Obama: Favorable/Unfavorable||Politico/GWU/Battleground||Favorable 51, Unfavorable 46||Favorable +5|
|Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable||Politico/GWU/Battleground||Favorable 52, Unfavorable 43||Favorable +9|
In new WaPo-ABC numbers, twice as many indies say they are worse off than say better off since Obama was elected.http://ow.ly/eRDMP
We are skipping our tracking poll tonight as well
The latest numbers, from TPM’s polling composites:
Compared to last Wednesday, President Barack Obama has retaken the lead in Colorado and Virginia. Florida remains the flip of a GOTV operation, and North Carolina remains Mitt Romney’s best bet.
The official composite includes all the crap GOP pollsters, like Rasmussen et al. For fun, I decided to check what would happen if I excluded Rasmussen in some of these states.
In North Carolina, that 2.5-point deficit would be 1.2 points.
In Ohio, that 1.4-point lead would be a 3-point Obama lead, 50-47.
In Wisconsin, that 2.2 lead would be a 3.2-point Obama lead, 48.7-45.5.
So Ras is single-handedly worth 1-2 points in the composite for Romney.
Today’s numbers bring back something we had discussed extensively prior to the first debate—Romney’s likability ceiling. Obama is at 48 percent or better in every state except for North Carolina. Romney is at 48 percent or better in just three of these nine states. Look at how that compares to Romney’s level of support back on 10/19, the strongest Romney day in these snapshots:
Even with Rasmussen and the baby Rasmussens like Gravis propping up his numbers, Romney is down in half of these states. Given that he’s losing in most of them, he needs his level of support to rise in all of them.
Now here are Obama’s numbers:
Average all those numbers out, and Romney has declined 0.33 points the last 10 days, while Obama has gained 0.71.
The campaign will now be on hold over the next several days as national polling grinds to a halt and the eastern battlegrounds focus on riding out Sandy. Given the trends in this race, it’s not a good turn of events for Republicans pretending to have any shot at the White House.
from the Blogging Caesar at Election Projection…..
|EP update for October 29 – Obama leads Electoral Vote projection entering last full week|
|Countdown: 8 days until Election Day
With just a week and a day left before Election Day, President Obama is projected to win 290 electoral votes against just 248 for Mitt Romney. The challenger’s projected 1.3-point advantage in the projected popular vote will be little consolation if the Electoral College turns out as it stands in today’s update. Still, there is nowhere near enough breathing room in several blue battleground states to provide Obama any sense of surety that he’ll come out on top.New Hampshire Governor Race
I haven’t often gotten the opportunity to discuss gubernatorial races much this year. There are only eleven on tap this year and those have been very static for the most part. A Public Policy Polling (D) survey coming out of New Hampshire yesterday flips the statehouse projection there from red to blue. The poll gives Democrat Maggie Hassan a 4-point edge over Republican Ovide Lamontagne in the race to replace the retiring governor, Democrat John Lynch and shifts the projection in her favor by 1.3%. Republicans are still projected to increase their lead in governorships by 2 even after taking New Hampshire off the board.
From a statement: “Gallup has suspended polling for its daily tracking as of Monday night and will reassess on a day-to-day basis. The ultimate effect on the overall picture of polling between now and this weekend, including election polling, will depend on what happens as a result of the storm, about which we will have a better understanding of on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.”
With Gallup out of the picture look for Obama’s National Averge to go Up immediatly on RCP……
That’s a UNDERSTATMENT……
President Obama said if he wins reelection, it will give him a “mandate” to work with Congress to address some of the more difficult issues facing the country, such as the pending tax increases and mandatory budget cuts that will kick in at the end of the year if Congress does not act.
“And after the election, I think that both Democrats and Republicans have to step back and say, ‘You know what, this is something that the country wants to solve,’” Obama said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. “If I’ve won, then I believe that’s a mandate for doing it in a balanced way.”
Obama said there are plenty of issues on which he agrees with Republicans, but he also said it was up to the other party to come to the table for compromise on issues like infrastructure, regulations and education. He conceded that it may be difficult.
“There are a whole range of issues, I think, where we can actually bring the country together with a non-ideological agenda,” Obama said. “The question’s going to be: How do Republicans in Congress react post-election? Because there’s going to be a war going on inside that party.”
The interview wasn’t all compromise and bipartisanship. The president also took a shot at his Republican opponent while naming some ways to generate revenue over the long term.
“I stole a whole bunch of ideas from a Massachusetts governor that I think over time is going to save us money,” Obama continued, a reference to the health care plan signed into law in Massachusetts during Mitt Romney’s term.
As the campaign enters its final week, Obama said he was optimistic…
New York State Governor has announced the closing of several bridges and the Holland and Queens Midtown Tunnel closing…..
He also predicted that the storm will move thru New York land fall earlier than first predicted ….around 6 to 9 PM instead of 11PM….
The NY Governor was in the company of the Nassau and Suffolk County Executive’s…
(The local TV channel’s are pre-empting their regular programing)
Long Island Ocean surges are his major worries…..
(There have been recues on Long Island’s Fire Island)
Cuomo has been in touch with President Obama….
Who has pledged assistance…
He has called up the National Guard……
The huge storm, which picked up speed over the water on Monday morning, was producing sustained winds of 90 miles per hour by 11 a.m., up from 75 m.p.h. on Sunday night. The center of Hurricane Sandy made its expected turn toward the New Jersey coast early on Monday. The National Hurricane Center said the center of the storm was now moving north-northwest at 28 m.p.h. At 2 p.m., the center said that the center of the storm was about 110 miles from Atlantic City, where the boardwalk had been damaged, and 175 miles from New York City.
In Manhattan, the top section of a crane atop a luxury building under construction on West 57th Street near Central Park had toppled over and was dangling about 80 stories above the ground. Even with landfall still hours away, there was no holding back flooding from the advance guard of the storm — fast-moving bands of rain that lashed protective barriers in beachfront communities and then pushed inland. In Delaware, some oceanfront roads in Rehoboth Beach were underwater and structures destroyed. In Maryland, the normally placid Sligo Creek in the Washington suburb of Takoma Park turned into a torrent. In Ocean City, Md., the boardwalk pier was “significantly damaged” overnight, said Mike Levy, a public information officer for the Police Department there.
President Obama returned to the White House on Monday and met with top advisers before speaking to reporters.
“This is going to be a big storm,” he said, urging people to follow mandatory evacuation orders. “It’s going to be a difficult storm.”
Mr. Obama said the storm would disrupt the rhythms of daily life in the states it hit. “Transportation is going to be tied up for a long time,” he said, adding that besides flooding, there would probably be widespread power failures. “The fact is, a lot of these emergency crews are not going to get into position to start restoring power until some of these winds die down.” He added, “That may take several days.”
When a reporter asked about the hurricane’s impact on the campaign, the president said: “I am not worried at this point about the impact on the election. I’m worried about the impact on families, and I’m worried about our first responders.”
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo IS being seen as displaying ‘Leadership’ people…..
Politics is always present…..
photo of Southampton LI, NY….Lucus Jackson/Reuters
I long ago called North Carolina for Romney
I am now ready to call two more “swing” states
Nevada for Obama
Florida for Romney
Which leads to
The Daily Odds
Slightly Fair and Balanced
The polls remain tied basically about a week out.The ONLY thing keeping me from going straight tossup is that Obama still has a very slight advantage in Ohio and that state plus Nevada which I called above with him holding the normal Blue states would assure victory.Obama -1.
If the numbers stay good…Obama gets No Credit..
If the September numbers are adjusted UPWARDS and Octber is back over 8% Obama will get greif over the weekend from the Republicans….
from the Washington Post...
The Labor Department has not yet ruled out delaying Friday’s jobs report due to the havoc caused by Hurricane Sandy.
“The employees at the Bureau of Labor Statistics are working hard to ensure the timely release of employment data on Friday, November 2,” the BLS said in a statement. “It is our intention that Friday will be business as usual regarding the October Employment Situation Report.”
Intense security measures surrounding the monthly jobs reports mean the numbers cannot be crunched remotely. The analysts responsible for preparing Friday’s jobs report are considered “non-essential” personnel and are not at their desks today.
The jobs report would be the last word on the economy before voters head to the polls. Last month’s report showed unemployment dropping from 8.1 to 7.8 percent, a number some conservatives questioned as suspiciously positive. …
Breitbart News editor-at-large John Nolte called the possibility of a delayed jobs report “outrageous.” He wrote Monday: “Not releasing October’s unemployment numbers just a few days before a presidential election would be absolutely outrageous and only further erode trust in our public institutions. It also reeks of desperation.”
Nolte joined other conservatives who took to Twitter to call foul, including Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Communications Director Brian Walsh…
The Weather Channel Guy will be in his glory for the next 48 hours ….
If you live anywhere in or around New York City, look out! Jim Cantore is headed to the Big Apple to cover Hurricane Sandy for The Weather Channel. On October 26, Cantore revealed his travel plans and posted onTwitter that he’s headed for New York City to cover yet another late season hurricane. This is terrible news for millions of residents who live in the heavily populated region.
Jim Cantore is the “Mike Wallace” and “Where’s Waldo” of meteorology. When he shows up, residents expect the weather to get interesting. Jim’s passion for field reporting during extreme weather events is well known among TWC viewers. Whether it’s “thunder snow“, an ice storm, tornado chasing, or a category 5 hurricane, there is no place this seasoned and experienced meteorologist would rather be than right in the “eye of the storm.”
First and foremost, Jim Cantore is a hurricane specialist, having reported live from Hurricanes Andrew, Bonnie, Fran, Georges, Gustav, Floyd, Katrina, Mitch and Rita. In 2011, he reported live from Battery Park as Hurricane Irene made landfall in NYC and flooded parts of Lower Manhattan. He later moved to Vermont to cover Irene’s after effects in New England. Jim is a member of both the National Weather Association and the American Meteorological Society. He holds the AMS Television Seal of Approval…..
Alan Abramowitz does not like Scott Rasmussen. Who is Alan Abramowitz, you ask? I have no idea either, but according to Google he is a professor of political science at Emory University in Georgia. Abramowitz published a piece at Huffington Post on Saturday that all but called Scott Rasmussen a partisan hack who has no clue what he’s doing.
So what was Abramowitz’s proof? He cited several battleground states in which Rasmussen found Romney performing better than the average of polls in the state, and that is apparently a crime. What Abramowitz did not tell his readers is that in six other battleground states — MI, MN, MO, MT, NM, and PA –Rasmussen showed Romney doing worse than the RealClearPolitics’ average. This is what passes for intellectual rigor in Abramowitz’s world.
But that’s not the best part. The best part is that in 2008 Abramowitz presented a statistical model to predict the two-party popular vote of presidential candidates. His 2008 model, which suggested that Obama would receive 54.3% of the two-party vote in 2008, has only three factors: real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of the election year, the incumbent president’s net approval rating at the end of June of the election year, and whether a candidate is running for re-election.
Here’s the actual equation that Abramowitz published: Popular vote % for incumbent party candidate = 51.417 +(0.604*GDP) + (0.109*Net Approval) – (4.265*Re-election).
According to Abramowitz’s model, a candidate would lose nearly 4.3% just by running for re-election. Each 10 points of additional net approval would add 1% to the candidate’s total, while each percentage point of GDP growth would add 0.6% to his or her final vote share.
During the 2nd quarter of 2012, real GDP increased only 1.3 percent. Obama’s average net approval rating (total approval minus total disapproval) was only 0.4 percent at the end of June. And the variable for re-election is 1. Put all those together, and you have an Abramowitz popular vote prediction of…48% for Barack Obama.
The most recent national tracking poll from Rasmussen shows Obama at 47%. What a hack.
[Addendum: A Twitter correspondent of mine tells me that Abramowitz “tweaked” his model in July, when it became clear that his 2008 model would predict an Obama loss. The new and improved Abramowitz model predicts an Obama win, naturally.]
by David Nir
• MA-Sen (Tossup to Lean D): I’m betting that Scott Brown is seriously regretting his agreement with Elizabeth Warren to bar most third-party spending on the race, because you know he’s thinking that a $5 million blitz by Karl Rove sure would be tasty right about now. That’s because the polling’s simply been awful for the Republican senator since Labor Day, ever since the contest took a negative turn. If Brown could have stayed positive and had someone else do his dirty work, he might still be in this thing. But he’s sullied his image, and Massachusetts’ traditional blue instincts have reasserted themselves enough to power Warren to a distinct advantage.
• MO-Sen (Tossup to Lean D): We were among the biggest naysayers when Todd Akin’s epic implosion rocked the Missouri Senate race—surely, we figured, once Akin successfully called the GOP establishment’s bluff and refused to drop out, Crossroads and the NRSC would be right back in the game, and conservative hostility toward Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill would overpower any lingering disgust toward Akin. But even after they could no longer replace Akin on the ballot, Republicans stayed out, McCaskill woke her attack machine out of temporary stasis, and the contest has, remarkably, veered back into the blue column. Why the GOP didn’t spend some of the millions they’re wasting on Josh Mandel on Todd Akin instead, I’m not sure I can answer. But the fact is that they haven’t, and Claire McCaskill may just be the luckiest senator in living memory.
• CA-36 (Lean R to Tossup): I admit it: I was very spooked by the revelations that Democrat Raul Ruiz had once read a letter in support of activist Leonard Peltier, who was convicted of murdering two FBI agents in 1975. But despite some ugly headlines, I guess Peltier has about as much resonance these days as Sacco and Vanzetti (and if you have to Google that, well, I’ve just made my point). What’s more, GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack’s attacks on Ruiz have inspired local Indian tribes (who almost never get involved in politics) to openly chastise her. (See CA-36 bullet below in our “House” section for more on this.) Indeed, Bono Mack’s relationships with minority communities in her district seem to be a real problem for her, especially Latinos, whom she promised to reach out to …after the election. That’s a pretty serious issue, seeing as Hispanics make up 27 percent of the voting population of the redrawn 36th, about a quarter of which is brand-new to MBM. She’s also never faced a serious race, and her rust has put this one into serious play for Team Blue.
• GA-12 (Lean R to Tossup): After the Republicans in control of redistricting screwed Rep. John Barrow something fierce, it was hard to imagine him hanging on: After all, his district see-sawed incredibly, going from 54-45 Obama to 56-44 McCain, one of the biggest swings in the country. But Barrow’d always been good (perhaps a little too good) at cultivating a very conservative profile—and he’s canny enough for me to believe that he knew this day was coming. A recent Democratic internal had him up 48-45 over Republican Lee Anderson, and Anderson never responded. (A dusty Anderson internal from August only had him up 1, anyway.) While Dem third-party groups have been outspent $2.6 mil to $2 mil, Barrow’s crushed Anderson in fundraising, $2.7 mil to just $800K, and Anderson had to spend most of his haul on winning the GOP nomination.