Obama /Romney tied @ 48%…PPP Poll….September 30, 2012

A Obama tie in North Carolina is a GOOD Thing…..

Mitt Romney SHOULD own this state, right?

Democrats feel this IS Doable….

Dead even in North Carolina

In 2008 North Carolina was the second closest state in the Presidential race. It looks more and more like it could be the closest this year. PPP’s newest poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney dead even at 48%. In 3 September PPP polls of the state we found a tie twice and a one point Obama lead the third time. Taking a bigger picture look, in 26 Obama/Romney polls dating back to November of 2010 we have only found the candidates separated by more than 3 points one time. It would be hard for the race in North Carolina to be much tighter.

North Carolinians narrowly disapprove of Obama, with 48% giving him good marks to 49% who are unhappy with his performance. They also have a narrowly unfavorable opinion of Romney with 46% of voters rating him positively to 49% with a negative opinion. The candidates are incredibly close on other measures as well. Romney leads Obama 49/47 in terms of who voters trust more on the economy, but Obama reverses those numbers for the 49/47 lead on who voters trust more on foreign policy.

57% of voters say they’ve been personally contacted by the Obama campaign, and 55% say they’ve been personally contacted by the Romney campaign. That those numbers are so close is an indication of the race in North Carolina being much different than 2008- the McCain campaign was sort of caught by surprise here and significantly lagged Obama’s field operation.

Democrats in North Carolina are feeling more excitement about the campaign at this point than Republicans are…..

GOP team on course to strengthen House majority…GOP Rep Pete Sessions…

A post from a man who is operating in a Different Universe…..

By REP. PETE SESSIONS (Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee) @ Politico

With less than 40 days until Nov. 6, our Republican team is on offense to strengthen the House Republican majority, take back the Senate and make Barack Obama a one-term president.

Unlike our Democrat counterparts who have run record deficits and implemented job-destroying regulations, Republicans have a plan to get our economy back on track. Republican candidates across the country have shared this message with American families and small businesses, leading an aggressive campaign to hold Democrats accountable for their failed policies.

Unlike our Democrat counterparts who have run record deficits and implemented job-destroying regulations, Republicans have a plan to get our economy back on track. Republican candidates across the country have shared this message with American families and small businesses, leading an aggressive campaign to hold Democrats accountable for their failed policies.

More….

photo….headlinesfortoday.blogspot.com

Democrats have a second-term wish list for President Obama….

With the polls looking REALLY GOOD for the Prresident’s chances of  another Four years….

People are thinking about ‘What can We Do this time?’

An Obama victory in November would lend the president a new fistful of political capital as he confronts Republican leaders over how to avoid the fiscal cliff and steer the polarized country through the next four years. More than a month before November’s elections, his allies in the House are already offering tips for how to spend it.

“He’s got to continue to concentrate on jobs,” Rep. Bill Pascrell said last week as the House was leaving town for a long, pre-election recess.

“I’m hoping he’ll do immigration reform,” said Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas).

“We should get back to an energy policy – one that acknowledges that climate change is real,” said Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.).

“The critical issues will be revenue generation … and … a concerted push on immigration reform,” said Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.).

“I think he’d want his administration to start on healthcare,” said Rep. Mike Honda (D-Calif.).

The remarks highlight the sheer variety of issues the Democrats are hoping to address after two years in the House minority – and foreshadow the degree of pressure a reelected Obama would be under to satisfy his allies after a bruising campaign season….

More….

Swing State Polls September 30, 2012…..Another day of Obama rules…..

Ok….He’s Tied in North Carolina….

But that’s a Southern State that he’s tying ….

He’s hanging in there in a state Romney SHOULD own….

Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed through the day:

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Des Moines Register)

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 42% (Columbus Dispatch)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

North Carolina: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)

Politicalwire….

Daily 2012 Polling numbers for September 30, 2012………Obama still leads just about Everywhere…

Sunday, September 30
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 49, Romney 44 Obama +5
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 48, Romney 46 Obama +2
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama Des Moines Register Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Columbus Dispatch* Obama 51, Romney 42 Obama +9
Washington: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, Romney 41 Obama +11
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama Boston Globe Obama 57, Romney 30 Obama +27
Massachusetts Senate – Brown vs. Warren Boston Globe Warren 43, Brown 38 Warren +5
President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 46, Disapprove 46 Tie
President Obama Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 50, Disapprove 49 Approve +1

from realclearpolitics….

The concept of game-changers from the Debates….Talk and Politics

by mac @ Talk and Politics….

Lots of folks are trying to lower the expectations before the debates starting Wednesday.. and many say they seldom matter.. but..

Romney is pretty consistent and unique in lowering his own approval every time he opens his mouth..

And Obama is said to be personally antagonized by Romney, probably giving the little pressure and edge to his attacks and line of arguments..

The Monkey Cage has this take:

The Right Perspective on Debates:

 

Gwen Ifill:

Gallup polls going back decades show precious little shift in established voter trends before and after debates.

Chris Cillizza:

…there are relatively few examples of times in which the general election presidential debates fundamentally altered the course of a race.

Miranda Green:

Presidential debates rarely have much effect on election outcomes.

It’s nice to see these, rather than hype about the debates as “game-changers.”  Maybe political science is “killing the campaign narrative” after all?

(Via The Monkey Cage)

Alan Simpson……

I’m finally getting around to this….

While driving around Friday I got a chance to listen to Alan Simpson at some conference ….

Doing a Q & A….

Some thoughts….

Simpson who’s 81 and has been out of elected office for a while….

He talked A LOT about old politics vs new politics….

And politicians playing politics …NOT governing…

Of course since he and Erskine Bowles spent a good amount of time putting together their report on debt and deficit reduction …only to see the report shoved aside…

While he may be mad at things, right now….He considers politicians BETTER today that ‘back in the day’… with good staffs…

But he complained (Correctly) that todays politicians don’t confront serious problems….They punt

He’s a bit pissed (of Course) that with a 17 Trillion hole in the countries budget the politician’s STILL will NOT deal with the problem…

Simpson goes on to throw at Democrats and Republicans….

And he’s not afraid to use some semi-salty language….

He related how he was in the room the first time the House and Democrats  got together on his and Bowles report…

Everyone spoke…..

The Rep Paul Ryan said his piece….

Simp[son related how Obama tore Ryan a new one in front of everyone…

Someone later asked Simpson what he thought of the exchange 

Simpson spoke right up saying that the President chewed Ryan up…

Making a political statement, NOT a move to deal with what Ryan said…

Simpson just put it out there …..The Politics…

It was refreshing ….

But dated….

While Simpson has every right to be annoyed at system…

He’s NO LONGER in it…

Politician’s as he points out ….

Are ALWAYS running for office these days….

And that means they will NOT face hard choices…

That’s the way it is….

Add the Republican’s hard at Obama thing….

And Yea Alan….

There ain’t ANYTHING that is gonna get done….

photo…Bowles and Simpson…latimes.com

Could Iowa be the Romney turning point?…Nate Silver

While Nate Silver HAS been hemming and hawing for the last week or so…

He ‘s out with this piece on maybe Mitt Romney IS losing Iowa and …

The whole thing….

(Silver has Romney’s chance of winning at  16%)

Sept. 29: As Iowa Goes, So Go Romney’s Chances?

By NATE SILVER @ Fivethirtyeight…
 

Saturday, not Sunday, is the news media’s traditional day of rest — and so it is the slowest day of the week for polling.

But the national tracking polls were published on Saturday, and continued to show President Obama in a fairly strong position. He held at a six-point lead in the Gallup national tracking poll, although his approval rating dipped. He also maintained a rough seven-point advantage in the RAND Corporation’s online tracking poll. Mr. Obama also pulled ahead to take a two-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, which had differed from other polling firms by previously showing a tie. (Another national tracking poll, from Ipsos, is not regularly published on the weekends.)

We’re getting to the point in the campaign where a day on which the polls are in line with expectations is a winning one for Mr. Obama, since Mr. Romney trails in the race and now has just five full weeks to make the deficit up. Mr. Obama’s forecast rose slightly, to an 83.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, from 82.7 percent on Friday.

The Des Moines Register also published its highly regarded Iowa Poll on Saturday, which showed Mr. Obama with a four-point lead, 49 to 45. This result is quite consistent with other polls of Iowa published since the conventions, which also have shown Mr. Obama ahead by four points on average.

Read more…

Obama’s Fourth Recovery Summer Ends…Red State….

This message is brought to you by the people who WILL vote FOR Willard Mitt Romney……

One of the stunning things about the utterly supine press in the United States is that we have lived through the worst four years of economic mismanagement in this nation’s history. Not even Gerald Ford wearing his WIN (Whip Inflation Now) button and Jimmy Carter declared energy independence as the Moral Equivalence Of War (a contender for the unfortunate acronym award: MEOW) can compete with the utter fecklessness of this administration.

By any conceivable measure, we are much worse off today than we were four years ago. In the best areas of the economy we are stagnant.

Unemployment has only been kept down below 9% by the clever tactic of reducing labor force participation. For men, the labor force participation rate is the lowest on record.

Household income is in a nosedive, dropping an unprecedented 8.2% since Obama began his one-man campaign to turn us into a Third World ineptocracy.

Nearly 47 million Americans rely on food stamps. This reflects an increase of about 12 million people over the highest level under President Bush.

There is no sign that economic activity is coming back. Manufacturing orders fell by 13.2% in August. The GDP annual growth rate was scaled back from a previously anemic 1.7% to an absolutely ossified 1.3%. This growth rate will not keep pace with new entrants to the workforce combined with the rate of inflation. Essentially our economy has stalled and may be contracting in real terms….

More….

You notice something odd about the image they posted with the Red State piece?

Weekend Polling: Advantage Team Blue…September 30, 2012

The Polltracker chart does not include the Dispatch poll out this morning as of this writing.

A trio of interesting newspaper polls just out in the last twelve hours show an advantage for the Blue Team.

Ohio


In Ohio, Columbus Dispatch: Obama 52 51 Romney 41 42 (+9). The two were tied at 45 in August.

What’s interesting here is not simply the confirmation of an Obama lead. The internalsshow Obama splitting the senior vote and winning everyone else. This, with Ohioans casting ballots starting Tuesday.  And not to put too fine a point on it, this from National Review:

In terms of the broader election, I don’t want to be the one who contradicts Karl Rove’s view that Romney can win without Ohio, but he can’t. It isn’t just that historically no Republican has won the presidency without Ohio’s electoral votes that “proves” that point. It also is the fact that Ohio is a bell-weather state, so if a candidate cannot win Ohio — especially a candidate operating under a very-low-margin-of-error strategy — the likelihood that that candidate wins enough of the other five to nine toss-up states is not high. We are seeing that in the polling results in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia. The election isn’t over, but it appears that Romney will need a big Obama misstep to win.

Iowa


The Des Moines Register‘s go-to pollster in IA, Ann Selzer, has Obama up 49-45 (+4). There hasn’t been a DMR poll since February (Romney was up by 2).

Romney leads by a huge margin on who would be better for business,

But so far they’re not convinced Romney will do a better job of shoring up the economy. He trails slightly (47 percent to 46 percent) in voters’ perception of who would be the better economy fixer.

Also note:

Thirty-seven days from Election Day, Iowa has few undecided voters left — just 2 percent.

But 10 percent of likely voters say they could still change their minds. Of that group, more than half are independent voters.

“The 10 percent persuadable could change the race,” Democratic strategist Celinda Lake said.

The Polltracker chart includes the DMR poll out last night.

Massachusetts Senate


The Boston Globe has Elizabeth Warren (D) over Scott Brown (R-inc) by 5, 43-38 with 18% undecided. That reverses a May 2 point Brown lead. From the Globe:

This survey is the sixth of eight public polls taken this month that show Warren ahead.

Warren’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, meaning a spread of as much as 8 percentage points between the candidates would still statistically count as a dead heat. Still, the survey is sobering for Brown six weeks before the election.

“It’s trending away from Brown,’’ said Smith. “Brown right now is not doing well enough among Democrats to offset the advantage that ­Warren has,” said Smith. “That’s just such a big obstacle to overcome for any Republican candidate” in Massachusetts.

The Polltracker chart does not include the Boston Globe poll out this morning as of this writing.

Finally, keep in mind the under-appreciated RAND poll shows a stable race today.

Since the narrative from the media will be straining for a Romney comeback to make this a race, keep in mind where we are the Sunday before the debates.

Rick Santorum starts on 2016…..Could a Social Conservative have a chance in a National Election?

topics.nytimes.com

Any thought that a Social Conservatives would NOT seek to extend their grip on the Republican Party is just wishful thinking…..

My question with Santorum is ….

Mitt Romney started trying to go to the right and lately is scratching for the middle….

A Santorum campaign would be rooted in the right …..A place that is getting smaller by the minute….How could Rick Santorum possible win a national election?

Unlike some other prominent conservatives that either ran against Romney or supported other candidates, Santorum has sought to amplify his brand in the conservative wing of the Republican Party while also serving as a surrogate for the 2012 Republican nominee.

Santorum, 54, has previously indicated that he might run in 2016 should Romney lose.

In an April interview with Greta Van Susteren on Fox News, Santorum said, “I feel like a young man, and hopefully I feel like a young man four years from now.”

That same month, a senior aide to Santorum told Chris Matthews on MSNBC that the ex-senator has engaged in discussions about a 2016 bid…..

More….

Warren up in Boston Globe Poll ….Brown is slipping after their debate and the Democratic Convention…

That Brown kept Ted Kennedy’s seat so long is pretty good…

But a Good Convention and a lousy Republican Presidential candidate is providing too much for GOP Mass Senator  Scott Brown these days…

Democrats ARE coming home…

And…..Never-mind the ‘professor’ label Elizabeth Warren has …..

She is trending up ……

The rallying of Massachusetts Democrats around Elizabeth Warren produces another bracing poll result for Sen. Scott Brown, via the Boston Globe:

Warren, a Democrat, leads Brown, a Republican, 43 percent to 38 percent, a shift from the Globe’s last poll in May, when Brown held a 2-point lead. But the race remains within either candidate’s grasp, with 18 percent of voters still undecided, said Andrew E. Smith, the Globe’s pollster and the director of the University of New Hampshire ­Survey Center. …

Warren’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, meaning a spread of as much as 8 percentage points between the candidates would still statistically count as a dead heat. Still, the survey is sobering for Brown six weeks before the election.

“It’s trending away from Brown,’’ said Smith. “Brown right now is not doing well enough among Democrats to offset the advantage that ­Warren has,” said Smith. “That’s just such a big obstacle to overcome for any Republican candidate” in Massachusetts.

With the exception of a Boston Herald poll, Warren has led every major survey since the Democratic National Convention…..

More….

abcnews.go.com

Who says Conventions don’t matter?

Ever since the Democratic Convention ….Obama, Warren and other Democrats have marched ahead of their opponents and never looked back….