For Romney….The Base seems NOT to be enough….

Romney has NOT be able to get past HIS natural base in the swing states….

This inability has kept President Obama’s electoral votes intact……

This  points to the reason that Romney mentioned women A LOT in his acceptance speech…..

And….

Tried to get his campaign back to jobs in his speech …..

And finally let people talk about his past in front of people…..

Of course he’s gonna have the social conservatives stop doing OOPS utterances….

There aren’t enough of them alone to give him a win come November…..

Base Turnout Strategy May Be Too Narrow for Romney

By NATE SILVER @ Fivethirtyeigth…..

Mitt Romney’s strategy once seemed self-evident. First, skewer President Obama over the tepid economic recovery. Second, lean just enough to the center over the course of the fall campaign so you won’t lose because of social issues, temperament and tone, controversial proposals about the welfare state or other things that might distract voters from your economic message.

With his selection of Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin as his running mate this month, however, Mr. Romney seems to have been pursuing a different approach, one that focuses more on turning out the Republican base.

Political messaging isn’t a simple matter, and skilled political candidates can develop pitches that resonate with different audiences. In 2008, Mr. Obama simultaneously tried to brand himself as a “post-partisan” moderate, while also seeking to demonstrate to Democratic primary voters that he’d be more reliably liberal than Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But Mr. Romney is probably a less dexterous politician than Mr. Obama. In his acceptance speech before the Republican National Convention on Thursday night, he will probably have to tip his hand as to which goal will be receiving the most emphasis over the balance of his campaign. Will it be a speech designed to fire up the delegates in the room — and the Republican partisans who are watching on Fox News and other networks? Or more one designed to appeal to the independent voters who might be casually flipping through their cable lineups?

The argument for a base strategy is something like this: there are very few undecided voters left, and hardly anything has moved the polls. With the election being so close, the contest will come down to turnout. So get your voters as motivated as possible.

A risk for Mr. Romney, however, is that even with a favorable turnout, the Republican coalition may have become slightly too narrow for him to win, given that the party is struggling with Hispanics and other minority voters.

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