Brown leads by 5 in MA-Sen race
PPP’s newest poll on the Massachusetts Senate race finds Scott Brown opening up a 5 point lead, 49-44. This is the first time Brown has led in one of our polls since June of 2011. Our last poll, in June of this year, found a tie and the two before that had modest leads for Elizabeth Warren.
Brown continues to do well because of his personal popularity and because voters see him as different from the Republican Party as a whole. 53% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 36% who disapprove. Incumbents with those kinds of approval numbers generally don’t lose. Brown’s approval has improved a net 14 points from March when he was at +3 (45/42). Warren’s numbers are headed in the other direction. On that poll her favorability was 46/33 and now it’s 46/43- her negatives have risen 10 points over the last five months while her positives have remained unchanged.
Massachusetts voters see the GOP as a whole as being extreme- 56% think it’s too conservative to only 27% who consider it to be ‘about right.’ But they don’t feel that way about Brown- just 30% think he’s too conservative to 54% who believe he’s ‘about right’ ideologically. 30% of voters who think Brown’s too conservative is less than the 41% who think that Warren is too liberal. Additionally 49% regard Brown more as someone who has been ‘an independent voice for Massachusetts’ compared to 38% who feel he’s been more a ‘partisan voice for the national Republican Party.’
Brown has the lead on Warren thanks to a 58-32 advantage with independents, comparable to what he won against Martha Coakley in 2010. He has Republicans strongly unified around him (91-7) and he’s pulling a pretty decent amount of Democratic support, 20%, with just 73% of her party’s voters committed to Warren at this point.
Things are going well for Brown right now but there’s still one major data point in this poll that could spell trouble for him down the line. 53% of voters would like Democrats to have control of the next Senate, compared to 36% who want the Republicans in charge. Brown is winning in spite of that because only 76% of people who want a Democratic majority are currently planning to vote for Warren. If Democrats in the final 11 weeks of the campaign are effective turning it into a referendum on which party they’d like to have control of the Senate for the next two years, Warren might be able to get the race headed back in her direction.
The race remains close but Scott Brown is proving to be pretty resilient despite his state’s heavily Democratic electorate.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_0821121.pdf
As PPP sums it up: Democrats have to convince Voters that a Democratic Senate would be better for the Country OTHERWISE Scott Brown wins. That will be a TOUGH sell should Obama late in the Campaign be poised to take the Presidency. Voters usually like more a devided Government in America see the Clinton Years. Brown leads 58-32 among Independents. IF he keeps that up I can’t see him losing.
Daniel G.
She is a left wing dope.
Claimed she was a descendant of an Indian tribe.
So she wrote a native American cookbook.
Called “Pow Wow Chow!”
But lo and behold she is not descendant from American Indians.
It was just a wives tale her mother told her.
Check the book out on Amazon
The reviews are spectacular!
Manila and the rest of the Republicans don’t give a rip about Warren’s ancestry
They can’t stand her because she has the balls to call out Wall Street crooks and others who live by the motto “privatized profits and socialized losses”
I agree Warren making an issue of her 1/432 of Native blood was a stupid mistake.
But even if she was full blooded Cherokee they’d be miffed that she dares to stand up for consumers and against the “talent” that got us into the 2008 mess in the first place.
That stuff about her being an “Indian” did give me pause
That was off the wall
Speaking of “dopes” Manila
Do you believe Tood Akin to be a Right Wing Dope?
Since Manila is an unofficial member of the
Society To Save Americas Wealthy
One can understand his opposition to Warren
Unlike Manila Waren doesn’t understand what an endangered species the “jobs creators” are
Ignore all this “librul” stuff about the rich making more money than they ever made!
They stand but a foot away from annihilation!
Of course I’m concerned, but there’s nothing too startling in one poll this far ahead of the election.
I’ve long thought this would be close with the edge, if anything, in the incumbent’s favour when it could be in the challenger’s because of Democratic Party incompetence, both national and state.
I’ve never seen how Elizabeth Warren was going to set the Commonwealth on fire, and she apparently can’t become more likeable than Scott Brown.
Look at it this way, if likable wins an election then Romney has already lost. I expect Warren to beat Senator Zero on the back of the Obama sweep in Massachusetts. Brown can only kiss so many babies, drive his truck so many miles, and strip for the camera so often — in the end he has to talk issues. Number one issue Senator Zero, do you support Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan and their plans for medicare and social security.
The Society to Save Wealthy America’s
Ha, ha , ha
I happy to see Jack has joined Keith
In good labels for the GOPer’s
And DSD
I hope she win’s
But America ‘s
Don’t vote for too many people they
DON’T
LIKE
That applies to Romney also
“Number one issue Senator Zero, do you support Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan and their plans for medicare and social security.”
He doesn’t support it Keith AND you know. He voted against the Ryan Budget Plan TWICE in the Senate.
So Keith,
IF you try TO TIE a Moderate/Liberal Republican like Scott Brown is who has also a good Record to back his moderate credentials up to the Romney/Ryan Ticket you’ll lose I guarantee you that.
I’m surprised to see you defend Brown Daniel
As I have read posts where you blast “moderate” Republicans and urge their defeat so that “real” conservatives can take their place
Indeed isn’t your main gripe with Romney that he isn’t “conservative” enough?
ah, Daniel….
Jack has a EXCELLENT POINT….
Brown’s a MODERATE…
Why are you fighting for him?
Question: Does Senator Zero support Romney/Ryan or not? All he has to do is answer that question.
I always find it amusing when Daniel guarantees something. Like the time he guaranteed Obama would lose the South Carolina primary.
But, does he support the Romney/Ryan plan for social security and medicare or not? Does he?
Warren will eat this boy alive in a debate. He really isn’t too bright.
While I agree that Warren is a BETTER brain than Brown….
It won’t be about that I’d think, with blue collar Mass Democratic men….
Ryan ….Somewhat like Obama, is a personable guy who WILL appeal to people who are looking for a ‘regular’ center to right candidate…
The closeness of the race in Blue Mass is indicative of the strength Brown has EVEN with Democrats….
I’ve ALWAYS felt that when people go to vote they have a heartfelt urge to vote who they LIKE and TRUST….
Warren isn’t someone that NON-intellectuals are gonna trust let alone like…
While I disagree on the most issues with Scott Brown I LIKE HIM. That’s why I’m fighting for him plus I want a GOP Senate “AT ALL COST”
jack,
Really stupid Question from you! You can’t nominate a staunch Conservative in Blue Mass and expect to win a Senate Seat….
I support staunch Conservative Candidates in Races where they actually can win like Texas (Cruz) or Indiana (Mourdock)…
In States like Wisconsin or Massachusetts you’d have to go with the Moderate Candidate.
Not a stupid question at all
So called “real” conservatives have FOR YEARS advocated defeating moderate Republicans EVEN if it means a Democratic victory
To cleanse the party of these undesirables(known as RINOS down here in SC where the “moderates they seek to oust are somewhere to the RIGHT of Mitt Romney there presidential candidate.I know it’s illogical but hey these are Republicans and this is SC)
Indeed your response begs the question as to why aren’t YOU supporting Romney if you really feel this way?
So you are FOR Brown because that’s the best you can get in Mass
But not supporting Romney for President?
Makes sense to me!
Brown is going back in.
McCaskil now can win but Akin may be able to salvage a victory.
He is now a household name.
And from what I saw on GMA today
He seems to like it.
Daniel never makes sense, from his party switching to Scott Brown, his views are totally inconsistent. He switched parties overnight and was completely ridiculed on the old Politics1 for his lack of conviction. I expect him to become a member of the Constitution Party next (the name has a nice ring to it).
You said it best Jack, Scott Brown will vote for Mitch McConnell for Majority Leader. Couple that with the fact that when the election starts for real, Brown will actually have to explain why he supports the Republican platform and we have a real race on our hands.
After all, Scott Brown can only trout out so many tired old white ethically challenged Democratic politicians in Massachusetts to say how “bi-partisan” he is for so long. Sooner or later he will have to answer the question: “Do you support Romney/Ryan?”
Akin, a household name for saying women can’t get pregnant from forced rape, what would that name be? Stupid? Rather a national laughing stock.
jack,
You really want to know why I’m not supporting Romney?
BECAUSE HE IS A MORMON and that VIOLATES the Bible & Scripture…PERIOD….End of Discussion.
There is no such thing as bad publicity but we shall see.
He did seem to conduct himself very well on GMA this AM.
A little bit too well.
And as his dropping out would really concede the seat anyhow.
And he has been a Congressman for 12 years.
Lets see how he does.
.
“Sooner or later he will have to answer the question: “Do you support Romney/Ryan?”
Of course he does.
And so will a large number of MA residents.
Very large.
Actually Jack….
Daniel was a HEAVY for GOP RINO extinction
We ALL change as we get older…
Manila….
Unless he gets a Mad Batshit Crazy vote Akin isn’t gonna win anything….
He has had his money cut….
He’s got women pissed at him…
He looks like a Dufiss…
And in ten or fifteen minutes the media is going to start going thru EVERYTHING dumb he’s said in the past….
Teeing off of Manila’s 9:14, I would expect Scott Brown to have heavy coattails.
He could carry many GOP congressional candidates in that state over the finish line.
And, of course, give Romney/Ryan the states’ 11 EV’s.
and there….
Daniel has owned up to his CHIEF REASON he doesn’t like Mitt Romney
Jack,
On a Sidenote:
My Religious Belief FORBID me to vote for Romney….simple is that….
james,
That’s not TRUE. Let me explain it to you all:
In a Race for example Indiana or Texas where you have the chance to replace a “Moderate Republican” like Lugar or Dewhurst with a stauch Conservative WITHOUT endangering the Seat YOU SHOULD DO IT. That’s why I supported Mourdock & Cruz.
However, MA or to lesser extend WI it’s a different Ballgame. These are States that a) are left or b) are left leaning so you can’t nominate a staunch Conservative especially in a Presidential Year and expect to win the Fall Election.
You get that NOW.
Yes, indeed….
The religious angle combined with a NEW pragmatism has allowed you to back way from you RINO position in the past…..
Moderate GOPer’s are NOW acceptable in certain cases…
I get it….
In some cases james…
On a Sidenote to you:
You want Scott Brown out, do you? BUT have you looked at the BIGGER PICTURE?
Assuming you hold the Senate lt’s say 51-49 YOU STILL NEED 9 VOTES TO BREAK A GOP FILIBUSTER….
Where will you get those 9 Votes?
Angus King? NOPE
Scott Brown if he’s OUT? NOPE
Will Mark Pryor (Arkansas), Mary Landrieu (Louisiana) vote for the Dem. Agenda if Obama is reelected…NOPE my friend…
YOU’VE LOST ALREADY in getting ANYTHING done if Obama is reelected.
And that’s what I WANT…PURE BLOCKING of everything.
Ah, back to 2010 Daniel…
Block Obama at every corner….
Shut DOWN Congress….
Screw 300 Million American’s?
We’ll see
I hope we’ll have an increase back into higher UE Rate so that this BULLSHIT President can see what he’s done so far…
So the little party swapping ex-pat now hopes the unemployment rate goes up. How very American of you Daniel.
“He could carry many GOP congressional candidates in that state over the finish line.’
No. After Brown their is no GOP in MA. Even John “Roll 7!” Tierney should get back in.
“And, of course, give Romney/Ryan the states’ 11 EV’s.”
No again but electing Brown gives us insurance that we will have a voice to speak to the White House if Romney wins.
PS:
John Kerry: Please call home.
Signed:
Lizzie Warren
“And in ten or fifteen minutes the media is going to start going thru EVERYTHING dumb he’s said in the past….”
It will take that long?
This is not his 15 minutes of fame, this is his macaca moment!