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Romney: I think this is a strong ad by Romney, attacking Obama for gutting Bill Clinton’s popular welfare reform. This is a good line of attack, one that should help with swing voters who don’t like welfare, but especially don’t like welfare for those who aren’t even trying.

North Carolina: In the same poll that finds Bev Purdue surging (seriously, I’m kidding) PPP finds Obama leading Romney 49-46.

Florida: If you’ve got some time on your hands, this is a great write-up on the ultimate battleground, the Florida I-4 corridor, which will be Ground Zero for the Presidential (and Senate) races in Florida this year.

Colorado: Dueling polls in the Centennial State, with Rasmussen showing the race tied at 47, while PPP shows Obama up 49-43. I suspect the actual race is probably somewhere in between, with Obama up by 2-3.

Priorities USA: I see no way this one backfires

Republican Convention: The RNC announced several more speakers: WI Gov. Scott Walker, FL AG Pam Bondi, GA AG Sam Olens (Jewish outreach?), Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuno, and Texas Senate nominee Ted Cruz. Many of these picks appear aimed at helping in Florida, with the Florida AG, a Jew from a neighboring state, and Fortuno for Florida’s large Puerto Rican population and Cruz for the large Cuban population.

Democratic Convention: The DNC announced that former President Jimmy Carter will address their convention via video on September 4.

Veepstakes

Ryan: If Ryan is the pick, we can probably rule out any date before the 18th for an announcement, as he leaves this Saturday for a week long family vacation in Colorado.

Portman: Rob Portman brought in $500k in two Ohio fundraisers for Romney. Don’t underestimate how important fundraising ability is for potential veeps.

Announcement: We can also rule out any date before the 11th, as Josh Romney emails to tell me that the deadline for the campaign’s meet Mitt and the VP contest is August 10 at 11:59 PM.

Senate

Hawaii: An internal poll for Rep. Mazie Hirono shows her leading former Rep. Ed Case 50-33 in the Democratic primary. Don Young bump? You betcha