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PPP’s newest look at the Florida Senate race finds that the bombardment of negative advertising against Bill Nelson is taking a toll. Only 35% of voters approve of him now to 40% who disapprove, and in a hypothetical contest with Connie Mack IV he leads just 45-43.

This is PPP’s first Florida poll using likely voters so it’s not a direct comparison to our previous surveys. But either way Nelson’s lead is down quite a bit from margins of 10 and 13 points the previous two times we looked at the state this year.

The biggest thing contributing to Nelson’s poor approval numbers is tepid support from the Democratic base. Only 50% of voters within his party approve of the job he’s doing to 24% who disapprove. That’s down from an already somewhat weak 58/15 spread in early June. In a head to head with Mack Nelson leads just 73-14 with Democrats where he previously had an 81-10 advantage.

It’s clear Democrats are not that enthusiastic about Nelson- it’s just a question of whether that will really extend to there being a lot of Obama/Mack voters in the end. Nelson’s one Senate candidate who definitely shouldn’t run away from Obama in terms of campaign appearances, given the tepid feelings for him from the party base.

The other place where we’ve seen a big shift since our last poll is with independents. Where previously Nelson had a 48-28 advantage with them, now Mack is ahead by a 45/38 margin.

The tightening of this race shouldn’t be taken as much of an endorsement of Mack. Only 25% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 35% with an unfavorable one. He is a pretty weak candidate for the Republicans and just like in the Presidential race you wonder where this contest would be if the GOP had a stronger candidate, given how poor Nelson’s approval numbers are….

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The latest Q poll has Nelson with a BIGGER +6% lead…..Here….