|PresidentOhio: Magellan: Obama 45, Romney 43. This poll was commissioned for a conservative think tank, and was likely released in response to WAA’s poll that had Obama up 48-40. WAA’s press release takes the odd step of labeling their own poll as a possible outlier, but adds that they found similar results in a second round of calls.
Pennsylvania: Susquehanna: Obama 46, Romney 43. Once again, we’re seeing both candidates hovering around their floors in PA, where neither side has spent heavily to date. Both campaigns have been cautious with PA as Romney tries to assess whether it’s worth investing in a state that hasn’t gone red in 24 years.
Arizona: In an establishment vs. outsider GOP primary, the outsider can usually count on support from groups like Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund, FreedomWorks, and the CFG…but not in the case of Wil Cardon, who is going it alone after all of those groups went for Jeff Flake, who is a pretty un-establishement establishment pick. Cardon has hung in there well, but it looks like Flake will hold on.
Maine: Charlie Summers (R) has an uphill climb to begin with, and he’s not getting help from Sen. Olympia Snowe, who is refusing to campaign for or donate to Summers….because he didn’t endorse Snowe in her primary before she retired. This is odd because Snowe and Summers have been friends and political allies for years, but perhaps Snowe is looking for a reason to defer to
Missouri: This race is moving towards Lean R status, as a Mason-Dixon poll has Claire McCaskill losing to all three GOP challengers: 52-41 to John Brunner, 49-41 to Sarah Steelman, and 49-44 to Todd Akin. In the Republican primary, it’s Brunner 33, Steelman 27, Akin 17. Nice to see the primary frontrunner doing the best against McCaskill.
North Dakota: A Dem internal has Heitkamp up 50-44. This would be a good time for Rick Berg to counter with an internal of his own–if he has one with better towlines, that is.
Texas: The election is tomorrow but Politico is already running a coronation piece on Ted Cruz, worth reading as a summary of his impressive grassroots campaign. PPP (D) released a poll late last night showing Cruz up 52-42, on the strength of enthusiastic voters, young people, and Tea Partiers. Dewhurst, however, released an internalshowing himself up 47-45 earlier yesterday, so it’s not quite over yet.
Wisconsin: Rasmussen, which had shown good results for the GOP in past polls of this race, now has Tammy Baldwin (D) beating all comers. Eric Hovde, who has seized the frontrunner mantle from Tommy Thompson, comes closest at 45-42….