Another state the President will have in his column come November 6, 2012…
A real interesting thing is Rick Santorum’s 36/53 favorability poll numbers…..
And this guy thought he could beat Obama?
The President and Pa Governor Bob Casey……
photo…cbs news.com
PPP’s newest Pennsylvania poll finds things have changed very little in the state over the course of the last ten weeks. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-42, basically the same as his 49-42 advantage there in early March.
It doesn’t look like Obama’s going to have to worry too much about Pennsylvania this year, and that’s a big change from what we found in our polling of the state over the course of 2011. Obama led by an average of less than a point in four PPP polls there last year. He was plagued by poor approval ratings then, but now voters are pretty evenly divided on him with 48% approving and 49% disapproving of the job he’s doing. Meanwhile Romney continues to be unpopular, with just 37% of voters rating him positively to 51% with a negative opinion.
Obama and Romney are holding their party’s voters in basically equal numbers, with Obama taking 80% of Democrats and Romney 78% of Republicans. In a state where Democrats have a large registration advantage Obama wins if that holds true. It’s a departure from some past polls that found him under even 70% of the Democratic vote, but conservative whites seem to be moving back toward him just as they did after supporting Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary. Obama’s also up 48-24 with Pennsylvania’s small contingent of independent voters.
Obama is up 56-36 with women and 64-28 with young voters, two groups that continue to help provide the base of his support in many swing states.
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I mean if Obama doesn’t win PA
He is obviously not going to win the election
This would have mattered if Romney were leading
Otherwise
next…
I wonder if in 10 yrs. we could see states like PA with aging mostly white populations becoming more GOP–sort of the reverse of the demographic changes that are pushing states in the west into the Democratic column?
Right now I’d say Jack is right though. The way the map stands now it’s pretty much impossible for Obama to be reelected without PA.
As goes West Virginia, so goes Pennsylvania?
Well Scott
OBAMA’s gonna get Pa
So as Jack would say to me
Next
I might add that the southwestern states
Have become more important with their
Population shifts
Ah, West Virginia …..
Manchin is safe there the polling looks like
And Obama will probably squeak by there
A bit closer than Pa I’d think
I’m an optimist, but unfortunately I don’t see (despite past history) how Barack Obama will retake the Mountaineer State short of a national sweep significantly greater than 2008: I’m talking FDR-Andrew Jackson numbers here: 55% or more.
The issues in West Virginia have just lurched away from Obama, and he doesn’t have the regional or class appeal of Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton or LBJ or even Al Gore (who lost W. Va). There’s almost no way for him to look better to coal miners on energy than Mitt Romney, and the social issues of guns, gays, God and abortion all cut sharply against him. So, of course, does the electorate’s ethnic and denominational composition.
You should be able to sell Obamacare and being pro-union and pro-mine-safety to West Virginians, but I don’t think the Obama campaign has the skills.
And it can’t ride on the coattails of Joe Manchin or Earl Ray Tomblin since they haven’t endorsed Obama yet and will do so only perfunctorily if they do. Both of them are seeking their own re-election this year.
I find it very depressing to discount West Virginia, which had been one of the four or five most Democratic states from the 1920′s to 2000 (with RI, Mass, Hawaii & DC), but I haven’t yet seen a good reason to put her back.
No reason at all to think Obama will take West Virginia
McCain handily took it in 08
The Dogs cheerleading continues to cloud his judgment
In the presidential race
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Good point DSD
I think MAYBE Obama MIGHT get
A chance
But you ARE CORRECT
With the new political mood there
Why else would Manchin be doing alright
By distancing himself from His parties
President
Yo Jack
Stranger thinks have happened
Like NC in 2008
You NEVER know
Hey DSD you have any idea on the latest
WV POLLING?
I know they don’t much for that state
Ok
The polling numbers bear out Jack’s
Call
54/37 Romney in WV
I withdraw my comment about Obama
Having ANY chance
In the state
Oh, I think the President might have a chance in West Virginia, but it’s probably about equal to if not rather less than Mitt Romney’s chance of carrying Pennsylvania or Illinois.
There are certainly some underlying factors favoring the Democrats, for example history, trade unionism, the Byrd legacy, and the fact that West Virginia’s governor and two senators are all Democrats.
But for Obama to carry the state would take either a strong national sweep that only FDR, LBJ and Jackson have achieved in terms of overall percentage (Obama is fourth at 53%, ahead of Carter, Pierce, Tilden and Van Buren at 50-51%) or some specific turn of facts and events that would sway West Virginia more particularly than the nation as a whole.
The Republican presidential candidate took West Virginia by nearly 100,000 votes out of 700,000 to 750,000 in both 2004 and 2008.
You know DSD I made my off the cuff comment based on your comments ….
But the polling numbers are 54 to 37….
Realisticly…
Obama isn’t getting this state….
Obama WILl get Pa….
So in my mind….
It actually ISN’T the same…
On this I can’t fight Jack….
I was saying that for Obama to carry West Virginia was no more likely — and probably rather less likely — than for him to LOSE Pennsyvania or Illinois.
So my initial comment about “as goes West Virgnia, so goes Pennsylvania?” should be taken as rhetorical rather than realistic: the relative demographic movement that James saw in Pennsylvania seems to have already happened in West Virginia.
Yup…..
Obama and the Democrats can only hope to get some traction in the Southwest….
Sorry DSD….
Sometimes ‘I DON’T get it’ right away…
Hello everybody….