Philippe Desmazes/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
François Hollande addressed supporters in Tulle, France.
As my fellow blogger friend over @ Whatever Works blogged a few hours ago….
Sarkozy is the 11th European leader to lose their job due to HUGE CUTS in their countries budgets and spending…..
There IS a message here……
It seems to be that the Democrats have it right in trying to ‘prime the American pump’
And the Republican’s are WRONG in their continual calls for more cuts….Cuts….and CUTS….
In fact most economists now complain that President Obama should have gambled for a LARGER stimulus instead of being afraid to ask for more….
People don’t much care about balanced budgets….
It really has no immediate effect on them…
But HUGE cuts in spending and cuts in employment do effect them….
It is NO coincidence that Europe is slipping BACK into a recession…..
The truth is spending IS the way move into stronger economies….
And America HAS taken that course inspire of the political tear-down the GOP would like…..
One thinks that the Republican’s know this….
And are alright with risking the Economic health of 300 million people to get rid of the current President by MAKING HUGE cuts a plufdging the country into an
Economic tailspin so that THEY can blame the President…..
Get his job…
Then SPEND the money needed..
THEMSELVES …..
To gain political power….
IOt’s gonna be up to smart Americans to NOT let what happened to Europe …
Come here…
While Republican Governors have infact started the European Cutting Policy….
American’s need to do what they have done in EWurope…
Vote with their feet to defeat those politicians that would sacrifice OUR economy for their own political power….
Mr. Sarkozy became the latest European leader to lose his post amid economic upheaval and the first French incumbent to be rejected since 1981.
In his five years in office, he propelled France, and himself, into a more central role in world affairs, rejoining the NATO military command and helping drive an international military campaign in Libya. He also proved to be a difficult but crucial ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany in their joint effort to master the European debt and currency crisis and save the euro.
That project, however, received multiple blows on Sunday, when Greek voters sent their own message against austerity. They handed the two main parties, both of which had pledged to follow harsh international bailout terms, significant losses as they streamed to parties on the far left and far right that have opposed budget cuts. In the process, voters cast into question the ability of any party to form a government soon, let alone continue with the austerity program.
For their part, French voters may not like belt-tightening, but both Mr. Hollande and Mr. Sarkozy had promised to balance the budget in the next five years.
The balance between reducing the debt and addressing popular anger is proving complicated for Europeans, and Mr. Hollande has said that he intends to give “a new direction to Europe,”demanding that a European Union treaty limiting debt be expanded to include measures to produce economic growth. Domestically, he has promised to raise taxes on big corporations and raise the tax rate to 75 percent for those earning more than one million euros a year.
Calling his victory “a fresh start,” Mr. Hollande pronounced: “Austerity need not be Europe’s fate.”
Photo….Sarkocy…..Michel Euler/Associated Press
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Watch Wall Street react.
That will tell the story.
Note:
Great Britian went back into recession without warning.
Spain is totally screwed up with 50% the young of eligble working age unemployed..
Greece’s “economy” qualifies for a death panel.
And in China a blind guy escapes from capture.
Time for a golden oldie!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExH7h9Lk5HY&feature=related
It’s going to be a long summer I think.
The only message I see is anti incumbency
If that then again I have never noticed any particular relationship between electoral politics in other countries and here
But if that’s the message
Bad news for Obama
Attempting to predict American elections based on European ones is tricky.
The parties are too different–for example even the “conservative” parties in Western Europe all champion universal health care.
I recall in 1992 Republicans pointed to John Major holding on to the Prime Minister’s seat as a sign that GHW Bush could be reelected.
Didn’t happen.
I would be careful in comparing the situation in Europe to that in the US. What might make sense over there does not necessarily make sense over here. While James is correct that most economists in the US would have proposed a larger stimulus package, I would be surprised if most economists in France would propose the same thing.
Frankly, I expected Sarcozy to win and am disappointed that he did not. In my opinion, this increases the odds that the banking system in Europe will collapse. And ultimately, that would hurt the US too. Hollande’s ideas are not feasible in Europe’s current environment, and frankly I see no way that he will even come close to achieving his agenda. The interest rate on French Government bonds will likely significantly increase – and (although I don’t have time to do the research) it probably already has.
Ah, Jack…
You see NO relationship between the austerity cuts and turning people OUT of office????
This is a GOOD thing for Obama….
He’s pushing life lines…
The Economy here IS expanding….
This BAD for the GOP Cut…Cut…CUT …..
Good Point Scott….
I and others are trying to use the European template on the up coming elections here…
But Yes….
Of course there are SOME differences….
But….
Talking food out of people’s mouths does tend to get you in trouble…
Hollande HAS promised to balance his countries budget…
But wants MORE time to do it….
He’s proposed 5 years…
There is NO denying the word Socialist….
Which is of course a push back against the banks over there….
Kinda a ‘Occupy’ moment, eh?
The narrative is there was cuts all over Europe to support the BANKS….
MORE cuts under the guise of supporting the banks is NOT gonna work politically there ….
The people in the street would probably support communism if it means NO MORE cuts and the bankers lose THEIR shirts…
Short sited?
Damn real…
But like I just said…
WE could be down to man’s basic’s over their…
And the man on the street could care less if the bankers get their money back…
The US markets are holding as I type this…
Notice that the gist of my and Scott’s remarks are basically the same
The Dog attempts to contradict me
Then agrees with Scott
laughable
I think I pointed out that main thing I saw in yesterday’s vote was austerity….
NOT being tired of Sarcozy….
Scott cautions about tying European elections to American’s….
I understand that….
He, he, he…
EVEN if YOU point that out Jack…
But the French vote was about CUTS, in my mind…
Plain and simple…
And today we have Greece coming right behind France…
I DO point out that fact that President Obama took the stimulus route…
And the US is growing…..
You Damn real that should be compared to Euorpe….
While there ARE difference’s…
My point was, and is….
You cut enough ground from under people to please the banks…
You lose your job….
(Even the GOPer’s are betting on this to unseat Obama…..they cut…. HE loses HIS job)
GHW Bush got he clock cleaned by a young Bill Clinton who ran circles around him….
Even Bush admitted he thought his war thing would carry him…
It didn’t….
Come-on I like Bush I
But he was NO match for Clinton…
That race had absolutely NOTHING to do with
John Major….
I don’t even remember who Labour’s standard bearer was in 1992, I guess Neil Kinnock? Tony Blair didn’t come around till a little bit later, and he was the one who was comparable to Clinton.
Anyways the comparisons were that the Tories had been in power for a dozen years–same as the GOP had been in the USA at that time.
When Major managed to prevail Republicans here in the states thought maybe Bush could as well.
Yea….
Again…
I liked Bush I….
Thought he was the last of the compassionate GOPer’s….
But Clinton was…..
Ah….
Bill Clinton….
He had more POLITICAL savvy on one finger than Bush had in his WHOLE body…
I read somewhere recently….Ah ….The President’s book….That Bush though HE was gonna win all the way down to the end….
And he took the loss valiantly but hard….
The two a very close these days…..
The ‘President’s Club’ is the book…
The polls of which you are so enamored
Show overwhelming support for austerity in this country
There is no comparison at all to France
Almost VERYONE thinks the government spends too much money
The dispute comes over WHAT is to be cut not IF it should be cut
Like I say
There is NO lesson to be “learned” here
[delete last post; maybe this should work]
There actually was a pattern of party shifts in the U.S. being followed immediately by shifts in the next U.K. general election, and vice-versa (a party losing the White House being followed by a similar loss of 10 Downing Street). This wasn’t true before 1945 and it hasn’t been true since 2000, but for five decades in between it held.
The misinterpretation of this scenario in 1992 was to think that a failure to shift in one country meant that there’d be no later shift (if only after a few months) across the Atlantic. One electorate has to be the first to shift for the other to follow; if one always had to stay with the incumbent party when the incumbent party had won across the Atlantic, then there’d never be a swing either way.
» 1951 Chuchill (C) upsets Attlee (Lab), although Labour won more popular votes
» 1952 Eisenhower (R) takes Presidency from the Democrats
« 1960 JFK (D) wins
« 1964 Harold Wilson (Lab) upsets Sir Alec Douglas Home (C)
» 1968 Nixon (R) wins
» 1970 Heath (C) upsets Wilson (Lab)
« 1974 Wilson (Lab) unseats Heath (C)
« 1976 Carter (D) unseats Ford (R)
» 1979 Thatcher (C) unseats Callaghan (Lab)
» 1980 Reagan (R) unseats Carter (D)
[= 1992 (April) Major (C) returned to power]
« 1992 (Nov.) Clinton (D) unseats Bush (R)
« 1997 Blair (Lab) unseats Major (C)
… and then the double pendulum swings out of synch (your opinion of Bush v. Gore will influence where you think it got stuck, but if you say Gore won, then you have to say Attlee won in 1951 because Labour won more popular votes than their opponents).
»= 2000 Bush (R) wins [or if you prefer Gore (D) wins]
= 2003 Blair (Lab) reelected
»= 2004 Bush (R) (re-)elected
= 2007 Blair (Lab) reelected)
« 2008 Obama (D) wins White House
» 2010 Cameron (C) upsets Brown (Lab)
Ok Jack you get my agreement on WHAT
Good point
But I’m sticking with basic premise that TOO MUCH CUTS
Endangers your job
That’s the bottom line