It’s the Perception thing…..
I remember standing on line in a supermarket when Carter was running for a return match…
The people on line where talking among themselves….
Carter was the subject……
And the talk wasn’t good at all….
I don’t think one person on that line back then voted for the guy….
Things WHERE BAD during Cater’s term………
Now….. Things aren’t that great right now….
(We’re coming out a rough 3 years like Carter)
And Carter WAS sitting on a 7.1% jobless rate going into the election ….
Because it had come down from over 10% during his term….
Obama’s now at a point ABOVE 7.1% and people are like ‘oh, well’…..
So he’s got the benefit….
Carter DIDN’T have….
I’d say NOT having the Iranians’s trying to embrace you and running against a guy as stiff as a brick also helps also……
Since 1932 only two presidents have ever won re-election when the unemployment rate was above 6%. In 1936 and 1940 Franklin Roosevelt won reelection with unemployment rates of 17% and 14.6%, but both of these elections should be treated as outliers or oddities. In 1936 the unemployment rate had dropped from nearly 24% to 17% and the economy was growing at an annual rate of 14%. In 1940 World War II was upon America and with patriotism high, support for Roosevelt was strong. More importantly, the economy was growing at 10% but the perception was that the president had the country going in the right direction.
In 1984 Ronald Reagan won re-election with an unemployment rate of 7.5%. Yet his victory occurred when the economy was growing at more than 11% and gas prices were tumbling from then record highs. Reagan definitely benefitted from the perception that it truly was morning in America, especially after the unemployment rate tumbled from around 10% in 1982 and 1983.
from Fivethirty eight. @ the NY Times….
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Economically, Obama Is No Jimmy Carter
By NATE SILVER
President Obama faces re-election amid a mixed and mediocre set of economic indicators. While there has been some improvement in the economy, most major indicators still show below-average growth.
The most instructive comparisons for Mr. Obama might be the two most recent presidents who had an economy that fell somewhere in this range during the election year, where the rate of growth was positive but below the long-term trend.
These conditions probably best describe the elections featuring the two George Bushes, in 1992 and 2004. George H.W. Bush failed to win re-election, while George W. Bush won a second term. However, another comparison that sometimes gets made – one between Mr. Obama and former President Jimmy Carter – is less appropriate. It’s as inappropriate as comparing Mr. Obama with former President Ronald Reagan, who benefited from exceptionally robust economic growth in 1984.
It would be hard to overstate what a disaster the economy looked like at this point in 1980.