The President is doing fine in the swing states….

I have argued here that contrary to some….

I believe that President Obama will CARRY most ….

If not all of the states he got four years ago….

Seven months out he’s doing fine in at least three of them…..

Obama Leads in Three Key Swing States

A new Quinnipiac poll finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney in three crucial swing states.

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 42%

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama 45%, Romney 42%

Said pollster Peter Brown: “President Obama is on a roll in the key swing states. If the election were today, he would carry at least two states. And if history repeats itself, that means he would be re-elected.”

Politicalwire…

Photo….technology-digital.com

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21 Comments.

  1. I think Indiana will be tough to carry again. But who knows, maybe Georgia will be in play? Obama did not lose that state by much and I can’t imagine that Romney is more popular there than McCain. And how about Missouri and maybe even Montana?

  2. I think Georgia is a very outside chance of being in play based on the combination of southern Republicans being very ambivalent towards Romney and if African-American turnout is close to where it was for Obama 4 yrs. ago.

    It would have to be the perfect storm and basically if it’s in play it’s likely Obama is winning anyway, but it would be interesting if this state that was the closest of all in the deep south (McCain-Palin took by about 5%) was one that the GOP had to fight to keep.

    Based on the primaries I think the deep south is the only place where Romney would perform worse than Santorum or Gingrich in the general.

  3. Obama lost Georgia by 5.2%: 52.2% McCain to 47.0% Obama (2,048,744 to 1,844,137 with 31,559 or 0.8% for others, almost all of them, 0.73%, to Ga ex-Cong. Bob Barr as a Libertarian).

    Georgia did vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976 & 1980, and for Bill Clinton in 1992 (but not 1996). In 1968 she voted for George C.. Wallace (Am. Ind.) and in 1964 for Barry Goldwater, the first time Georgia went Republican (or Vermont Democratic).

    After voting for Zachary Taylor (Whig) in 1848, Georgia backed every Democrat up to and including JFK in 1960. That’s not counting 1864 (having supported Jefferson Davis for the 1862-1868 term) but it includes 1948, when her neighbors supported J. Strom Thurmond (States’ Rights Dem.) over Truman, while Georgia stuck with Harry.

  4. Who knows how well this will print out from spreadsheet to blog, but here are the states where the Obama-McCain margin was less than 10% either way:

    Since this has no preview, I’m printing out once just to see what happens. If I can reformat it without too much effort, I may repaste it more readably.

    Total votes; Obama & %; McCain & %; Obama – McCain & +/– %; all others & %

    New Hampshire 710,970 384,826 54.13% 316,534 44.52% + 68,292 + 9.61% 9,610 1.35%
    Iowa 1,537,123 828,940 53.93% 682,379 44.39% + 146,561 + 9.53% 25,804 1.68%

    Colorado 2,401,361 1,288,576 53.66% 1,073,589 44.71% + 214,987 + 8.95% 39,196 1.63%
    Virginia 3,723,260 1,959,532 52.63% 1,725,005 46.33% + 234,527 + 6.30% 38,723 1.04%

    Ohio 5,698,260 2,933,388 51.48% 2,674,491 46.94% + 258,897 + 4.54% 90,381 1.59%
    Florida 8,390,744 4,282,074 51.03% 4,045,624 48.22% + 236,450 + 2.82% 63,046 0.75%
    Indiana 2,751,054 1,374,039 49.95% 1,345,648 48.91% + 28,391 + 1.03% 31,367 1.14%
    North Carolina 4,310,789 2,142,651 49.70% 2,128,474 49.38% + 14,177 + 0.33% 39,664 0.92%

    Missouri 2,925,205 1,441,911 49.29% 1,445,814 49.43% – 3,903 – 0.13% 37,480 1.28%
    Montana 490,302 231,667 47.25% 242,763 49.51% – 11,096 – 2.26% 15,872 3.24%

    Georgia 3,924,440 1,844,137 46.99% 2,048,744 52.20% – 204,607 – 5.21% 31,559 0.80%
    South Dakota 381,975 170,924 44.75% 203,054 53.16% – 32,130 – 8.41% 7,997 2.09%
    Arizona 2,293,475 1,034,707 45.12% 1,230,111 53.64% – 195,404 – 8.52% 28,657 1.25%
    North Dakota 316,621 141,278 44.62% 168,601 53.25% – 27,323 – 8.63% 6,742 2.13%
    South Carolina 1,920,969 862,449 44.90% 1,034,896 53.87% – 172,447 – 8.98% 23,624 1.23%

  5. I don’t buy it that Ross Perot caused GHW Bush to lose reelection in 1992 but I do think Georgia and Montana are two states Clinton would not have won if Perot wasn’t on the ballot that year.

  6. Let’s try this (for finer percentages and third party votes, see above)

    Tot. _,710,970 : Oba _,384,826 ( 54.1% ) – McC _,316,534 ( 44.5% ) = + _68,292 ( + 9.6% ) — New Hampshire
    Tot. 1,537,123 : Oba _,828,940 ( 53.9% ) – McC _,682,379 ( 44.4% ) = + 146,561 ( + 9.5% ) — Iowa
    Tot. 2,401,361 : Oba 1,288,576 ( 53.7% ) – McC 1,073,589 ( 44.7% ) = + 214,987 ( + 9.0% ) — Colorado

    Tot. 3,723,260 : Oba 1,959,532 ( 52.6% ) – McC 1,725,005 ( 46.3% ) = + 234,527 ( + 6.3% ) — Virginia
    Tot. 5,698,260 : Oba 2,933,388 ( 51.5% ) – McC 2,674,491 ( 46.9% ) = + 258,897 ( + 4.5% ) — Ohio

    Tot. 8,390,744 : Oba 4,282,074 ( 51.0% ) – McC 4,045,624 ( 48.2% ) = + 236,450 ( + 2.8% ) — Florida
    Tot. 2,751,054 : Oba 1,374,039 ( 49.9% ) – McC 1,345,648 ( 48.9% ) = + _28,391 ( + 1.0% ) — Indiana
    Tot. 4,310,789 : Oba 2,142,651 ( 49.7% ) – McC 2,128,474 ( 49.4% ) = + _14,177 ( + 0.3% ) — North Carolina

    Tot. 2,925,205 : Oba 1,441,911 ( 49.3% ) – McC 1,445,814 ( 49.4% ) = – __3,903 ( – 0.1% ) — Missouri
    Tot. _,490,302 : Oba _,231,667 ( 47.2% ) – McC 242,763 ( 49.5% ) = – _11,096 ( – 2.3% ) — Montana

    Tot. 3,924,440 : Oba 1,844,137 ( 47.0% ) – McC 2,048,744 ( 52.2% ) = – 204,607 ( – 5.2% ) — Georgia

    Tot. _,381,975 : Oba _,170,924 ( 44.7% ) – McC _,203,054 ( 53.2% ) = – _32,130 ( – 8.4% ) — South Dakota
    Tot. 2,293,475 : Oba 1,034,707 ( 45.1% ) – McC 1,230,111 ( 53.6% ) = – 195,404 ( – 8.5% ) — Arizona
    Tot. _,316,621 : Oba _,141,278 ( 44.6% ) – McC _,168,601 ( 53.3% ) = – _27,323 ( – 8.6% ) — North Dakota
    Tot. 1,920,969 : Oba _,862,449 ( 44.9% ) – McC 1,034,896 ( 53.9% ) = – 172,447 ( – 9.0% ) — South Carolina

  7. Ga is like many deep southern states

    In off year elections

    solidly Republican

    In presidential years

    Less so

    Because of the increased Minority vote

    Still in my view none of the deep south states are really in play

    They may not care for Mitt Romney

    But they HATE Barack Obama

  8. Are you including Florida, North Carolina or Virginia among the deep south states, Jack?

  9. No

    I classify the following as “Deep South:”

    SC,Ga,Ala,Miss,and La

    I classify the following as peripheral South

    Va,NC,Tenn,And Fla

    Texas and Ark I refer to as western/southern

  10. North Carolina and Florida ARE doable for Obama

  11. I assumed “deep south” meant something like that to you, Jack. It’s just that the term gets used in several different ways.

    My own definition of the deep or cotton South (also known as the Black Belt) is based more on election returns and some history than on direct acquaintance or deep knowledge. I add Ark to your list, to cover states that joined the Confederacy by February 1861, and voted for Al Smith in 1928, Strom Thurmond in 1948, Barry Goldwater in 1964 and/or George Wallace in 1968:

    Ark, La, Miss, Alab, Ga and SC.

    and (somewhat ahistorically) exclude Tenn. from the Outer South

    Va, NC, Fla & Texas

    although this reflects a somewhat-dated division from Kevin Phillip’s 1969 Emerging Republican Majority

    but add Tenn. to the Border States:

    Okla, Mo, Tenn, Ky, W. Va (and only for ceremonial purposes, Md & Del.)

    West Virginia used to be reliably Democratic in Presidential elections, while Maryland, like New Jersey and Connecticut used to be more of a swing state.

    But however one defines a Deep South state, none of them looks likely to go for Obama in the absence of a huge minority turnout. In 1976 all of them supported Carter, as did the every Southern & Border state besides Virginia and Oklahoma. In 1992, Clinton carried Arkansas, Louisiana & Georgia, and in 1996, Arkansas, Louisiana & Florida.

  12. Mostly I agree with your pegging

    Also I would add that politically the deep south states in general are more subject to racial appeals(see Newt Gingrich in SC)

    That’s why I don’t have Arkanasa in the Deep south

    Over the past twenty years or so the racial appeals have all but disappeared and Democrats are still competitive

    State Democratic parties in Deep South states are moribund

  13. And, my mistake, Arkansas didn’t secede until May 1861, after Fort Sumter (April 12), while Florida and Texas were both represented in the provisional Confederate Congress/Convention in Montgomery in February. Although Arkansas voted for Al Smith in 1928 and George Wallace in 1968, she didn’t back Strom Thurmond or Barry Goldwater. Kevin Phillips also classified Arkansas as Outer South.

    On the other hand, Arkansas’ margin for John McCain & Sarah Palin over Obama & Biden was much higher than even South Carolina’s or Mississippi’s (probably because of fewer black voters in Ark.): McCain 58.7% – Obama 38.9%, margin 19.9%, just above Louisiana (which may have lost more black voters to Katrina than white ones): McCain 58.6% – Obama 39.9%, margin 18.6%, and just below Alabama’s: 60.3% – 38.7%, margin 21.6%.

    [Mississippi voted 56.2% - 43% for McCain, margin 13.2%; the other deep south states, SC & Ga, are listed above.]

  14. Geography aside I’m still saying Florida and North Carolina for Obama
    And Mass!

  15. He’s 50/50 in both right now

    But except for some areas in the panhandle

    Florida has little in common with the deep south states

    Likewise North Carolina which has a robust competitive two party system

    While across the border in SC

    The Democrats are competitive only in rural areas mostly in majority Black counties

    And not at all in statewide elections

  16. Agreed Jack
    But even Election*Projection has Obama AHEAD in electoral numbers…..

  17. Show me the numbers in mid October

    Then I’ll be impressed

    As for now

    Of no great import

  18. He, he, he….
    Jack I DID mention NOW….

  19. Manila Calling!

    Who is favored to win the World Series this year?

    We will find out the answer sooner.

  20. I can understand Jack’s comment that Texas is more western than southern, but Arkansas?

    Arkansas is one of only two states east of the Mississippi in which I have never been, so maybe I’m off base on this, but Arkansas seems more Southern than Louisiana. it is definitely more Southern than Southern Louisiana.

  21. Actually Arkansas is not east of the Mississsippi.

    It’s definitely southern, but I wouldn’t call it the Deep South. Though the eastern portion of the state which lies in the Mississippi Delta is hard to tell from the state of MS itself.

    The western part of Arkansas is mostly Ozark highlands. That area contained far fewer slaves and was much more pro-Union in the Civil War.

    To me the Deep South would be the states that were unabashedly pro-Confederate.

    Tennessee, North Carolina and Arkansas all seceded–but contained pockets of union sympathizers.

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