Yea Jack…..
Another I told Ya So…..
Charlie Cook…
Who gets paid to write has mused something this Dog put on here a littlw while ago….
President Obama probably won’t have the Economy as a foil aginst his re-election bid….
Just as we have our first mixed race President…..
I think he’s gonna break another mold when he gets another term with the jobless rate somewhere in the 8% range….
The economy in General will NOT be on people’s minds this fall when the Presidential race gets into full swing….
Nor will the Budget Deficit or even a Balanaced budget…..
Obama’s gonna run gainst Mitt Romney and the Republican’s….
and Newt Gingrich and compnay will have contributed several pages in Obama’s campaign playbook…..
Although the presidential race is dominating the media this week, other events are worth watching: the recent spate of brighter economic news and lower unemployment numbers. These trends could change the trajectory of the general election. The latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of 56 top economists forecasts an 8.7 percent unemployment rate for calendar year 2012 and an 8.5 rate for the fourth quarter, when Election Day occurs.
My rule of thumb has been that if unemployment is near 9 percent on Election Day, President Obama would very likely lose. If it’s near 8 percent, he would likely win. But if it’s around 8.5 percent, the race would be a toss-up. Worthy of note, the Blue Chip survey was conducted on January 4-5, before the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December unemployment numbers that dropped to 8.5 percent from an upwardly revised 8.7 percent in November. This means that the jobless rate has inched downward four months in a row, from 9.1 percent in August to 8.5 percent in December.
To be sure, many economists question how much the employment picture is really brightening. For example, a January 6 report from McVean Trading & Investments points out that the 200,000 net growth in jobs in December included 42,000 in the category of couriers and messengers. The firm noted that in December 2010, the jobs report marked an increase of 46,000 jobs in that same category, followed by a 49,000 job loss in that group the following month.
Apparently, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts for seasonal job gains and losses in many categories at Christmas time, it hasn’t yet taken into account the extra hiring for sorting centers. FedEx, UPS, and other delivery services use additional workers during the Christmas rush. McVean noted that taking 40,000 off the December job growth reduces net job creation to 158,000, about what economists had originally expected.
Moreover, even if the economy is starting to improve and private-sector job creation is offsetting continued declines in state and local government employment, the news is not all rosy. Most important, the specter of a likely recession in Europe, the world’s single-largest market, threatens to undermine the U.S. economic picture.
Republicans had counted on running against a president with an economic millstone around his neck. It’s too soon to tell how heavy that millstone will be. How much will its weight depress Obama’s potential support level? A couple of months ago, it was a reasonably good assumption that the economy would be a massive liability for him. It still might—but it might not…….
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