Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest…7/1/11…..

By David Nir…..

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by David Nir
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• FL-Sen: Though the race has tightened a bit, Dem Bill Nelson still has wide leads on all the GOP hopefuls in PPP’s latest. (Full post at Daily Kos Elections.)

• OH-Sen: With ex-SoS Ken Blackwell declining to pull the trigger on a primary bid for the GOP nod to challenge Democrat Sherrod Brown, it’d be easy to assume that state Treasurer Josh Mandel has a clear path to the nomination. However, in an effort to remind people that he still exists, ex-state Sen. Kevin Coughlin spoke to Hotline On Call’s Julie Sobel to reaffirm his commitment to the race. Coughlin, a Cool Ranch-flavored wingnut, isn’t hyping his fundraising, noting that he hasn’t “had a single event” yet, but promises to be much more aggressive in the third quarter. (JL)

• TX-Sen: Another PPP poll, and this one shows surprisingly optimistic results for Democrats in Texas. (Full post at Daily Kos Elections.)

• VA-Sen: Quinnipiac releases its first-ever Virginia poll, finding Tim Kaine and George Allen in a dead heat. (Full post at Daily Kos Elections.)

• WI-Sen: Dem Rep. Ron Kind says that he won’t make any decisions on a Senate run to replace outgoing Sen. Herb Kohl until the state Senate recall elections are completed in August. With many pols mulling over decisions like these, it’s often clear that they’re leaning one way or another, but Kind’s decision-making process seems pretty tough to read right now. (JL)


• UT-Gov: Utah Pollster Dan Jones, who recently released a Senate pollshowing Dem Rep. Jim Matheson in dead heats against Orrin Hatch and Jason Chaffetz in hypothetical match-ups, also tested Matheson out against GOP Gov. Gary Herbert. Matheson, remarkably, fares almost as well against Herbert, trailing the incumbent Governor by only 48-45. Herbert, as you may recall, crushed Democrat Peter Corroon, the mayor of Salt Lake County, by 64-32 in the 2010 special election to fill the remainder of Jon Huntsman’s term after he became Ambassador to China. Against a generic primary opponent, Herbert leads by 54 to 23. It would be pretty amazing if a Republican decision to draw Matheson out of his own seat boomeranged into a Matheson statewide victory instead. (JL)


• CA-Coastal San Diego: Politico says that wealthy marketing exec Bob Nascenzi will challenge GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray, presumably in the district presently labeled “Coastal San Diego” (though of course that’s subject to change).

• CA-36: Dem Janice Hahn raised $677K from April 28 to June 22 and has $326K on hand, while Craig Huey pulled in $323K and has $56K in the bank. No word on how much of Huey’s haul was self-funded, nor whether he plans to personally supplement his coffers during the stretch run (the election is July 12). Also, Hahn has a new attack ad out, which you can watch at the link.

• CO-06: Dem state Rep. Joe Miklosi says he’ll decide next week whether he’ll take on sophomore GOP Rep. Mike Coffman. While Barack Obama performed well here, the 6th is a very red seat, though that could potentially change in redistricting. Miklosi doesn’t actually live in CO-06, though his state House district (the 9th) borders the CD.

• MS-04: Longtime Dem Rep. Gene Taylor, swept out of his exceedingly red district in last year’s tidal wave, has closed out his campaign account, suggesting another run for office is probably not in the cards. (Though he served 11 terms, he’s only 57 years old.) Greg Giroux catches one odd detail: One of the last acts of Taylor’s committee was to make a $1,000 donation to GOP ex-Rep. Joe Cao.

• TX-25: Republican state Rep. Jason Isaac says he may run for the kinda-sorta new 25th CD, according to Jason Embry of the Austin American-Statesman. Obviously based on the numbering scheme, the 25th isn’t technically a new district. But the lines have been changed so much that if Dem Rep. Lloyd Doggett runs for re-election, it will be in the “new” 35th, leaving the 25th incumbent-less.

• WA-01: Roll Call runs through a bunch of new names of potential House candidates in Washington. In the open 1st, there’s 2010 WA-08 nominee Suzan DelBene, state Sen. Steve Hobbs, Kitsap County Commissioner Josh Brown, and state Rep. Ross Hunter. Republican James Watkins, who lost to Jay Inslee last year, also says he’ll run again.

Grab Bag:

• Census: The AP has an interesting rundown on challenges by cities and towns to official Census numbers. Ten years ago, some 1,200 jurisdictions filed appeals with the Census Bureau, all of which collectively resulted in a net adjustment of 2,700 people. These challenges can’t affect reapportionment or redistricting, but they can affect the distribution of federal dollars.

• Voter suppression: The Republican-led Ohio legislature passed new voter suppression legislation, which now goes to Gov. John Kasich for his signature. The bill actually did not include a voter ID provision, but lawmakers are hoping to take that up when the legislative session recommences later this month.

• DCCC: More D-Trip robocalls against GOPers, this time on Social Security. What else is new?

Redistricting Roundup:

• Arizona: For the second time, the lone independent member of Arizona’s redistricting commission has sided with Democrats, this time agreeing with their selection of a mapping firm. Previously, Colleen Mathis also sided with the Dems on which law firm to hire. I’m guessing Mathis must be feeling a lot of heat from Republicans, since she not only read out a prepared statement defending her choice, but Evan Wyloge of the Arizona Capitol Times observes that she did so with “hands shaking.” I hope Mathis doesn’t try to find artificial “balance” by going along with the Republicans in the future.

• Massachusetts: The legislature’s redistricting committee says it won’t consider any maps until the conclusion of public hearings on July 11 — and that their “goal is to have a final map prepared for the full Legislature to begin debating early in the fall.”

• North Carolina: We need a good name for whatever the opposite of “Redistmas” is, because that’s today. The Republican-controlled North Carolina legislature is expected to publish its new maps today, and it won’t be pretty for Democrats.

• Oregon: As expected, the state legislature passed the compromise congressional map yesterday, the last day of the session. (Google Maps versionhere.) For our analysis of the new plan, click here. Kari Chisholm has more at Blue Oregon.

• Utah: Lee Davidson of the Salt Lake Tribune discusses a topic that’s come up a bunch here at Elections: what might happen to Dem Rep. Jim Matheson if Utah actually goes with a “doughnut hole” district in Salt Lake City. There are some maps available at the link.