Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest…6/9/11…Cory Booker in 2016?

Hum?….Is Cory Booker trying to do a Barack Obama type run at the Presidency in 2016?

Get a Senate seat …Then run?….

Skip the Governors step like Andrew Cuomo?

By Steve Singiser @Daily Kos….

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Steve SingiserTo receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest via email each weekday, sign up here.Senate:

• CT-Sen: We may have another name in the mix in the Nutmeg State, though exactly what office said politico wants to seek is still a mystery. According to Nathan Gonzales (link is subscriber-only), state House GOP leader Larry Cafero is mulling seeking a move to DC. What remains unclear, however, is if this means a bid for the open Senate seat being abandoned by Joe Lieberman, or making a run at one of the state’s Democratic House members.

• FL-Sen: Apparently, his brief appointed tenure in the Senate did yield a real payoff for George LeMieux. A payoff in the form of campaign cash, which a dozen GOP Senators will be raising for the man who briefly filled Mel Martinez’s shoes in 2009-10. The host committee for the June 23rd fundraiser is a pretty diverse group, ranging from comparative moderates like Lisa Murkowski to undeniable right-wingers like Pat Roberts and Jim Risch.

• NJ-Sen: This is a bit of an eyebrow-raiser. Newark Mayor Cory Booker has filed paperwork with the FEC regarding a prospective bid for the U.S. Senate. Since all signs are that Robert Menendez is seeking another term next year, the only logical landing spot for a Senate bid for Booker would be 2014, when Frank Lautenberg will be a spry 90 years of age. But most folks presumed that Booker was more likely to land in a bid for Governor against GOP golden child Chris Christie.

• PA-Sen: Republicans are still flailing about in their efforts to secure a first-tier challenger to freshman Democrat Bob Casey. Two names making the rounds, according to Politico writer (and PA native) Dan Hirschhorn, are newly minted state Lt. Governor Jim Cawley, and wealthy businessman Keith Loiselle, who could presumably help bankroll his own campaign. What is as notable in the article is the fact that all signs are that the oft-mentioned contenders from the House (Dent, Gerlach, and Meehan) are all leaning against making the leap.

Gubernatorial:

• KY-Gov: In yesterday’s digest, David made mention of a new ad for Democratic Governor Steve Beshear touting his budgetary chops. At the time, the ad was MIA. No longer, as you can see from the link. Beshear is being challenged by GOP state Senate President David Williams.

• MA-Gov: One of the recurring themes of PPP’s polling this year has been the wave of buyer’s remorse in the wake of 2010 elections, with multiple Governors with crashing approval ratings, and voters wishing they could do it all over again. Meet the exception–Democrat Deval Patrick. Patrick’s approval rating is well north of 50% (a place it never was during the 2010 campaign), and he wins a prospective rematch with his 2010 GOP challenger (Charlie Baker) by over 20 points.

• MO-Gov: Oof. If this is what Peter Kinder’s Republican colleagues are willing to tell reporters about him, you know that he is pretty helplessly screwed in his bid to unseat Democratic Governor Jay Nixon. When the lede says that GOPers are “increasingly despondent” about their chances here, that kind of says it all.

• PA-Gov: Fiscal conservatism strikes again! It isn’t as optically delicious as Chris Christie requiring a helicopter to see his son’s ballgame (and a chauffered car to take him those critical last hundred yards), but it is pretty awesome nonetheless. Republican Governor Tom Corbett has demanded a hatchet be taken to his state’s ed budget, but nearly $200,000 was thrown down to outfit him and Lt. Governor Cawley…and their wives…with brand new SUVs. His defense, as often is the case when Republican politicos get caught in such circumstances, was that he “didn’t ask” for the upgraded rides.

• WA-Gov: Rob McKenna’s campaign just got liftoff this week, and it already has a high-profile validator. Congressman Dave Reichert says that he will support McKenna, which should put to rest the persistent rumors that Reichert himself might be a candidate for the gubernatorial race. Reichert is also occasionally mentioned for the Senate race, but his statement regarding McKenna gave no hint of any statewide ambitions.

House:

• CA-06: Giroux finds another intriguing FEC filing–this time in Marin County. County supervisor Susan Adams has filed with the FEC for this district, long held by Democrat Lynn Woolsey. Woolsey, a veteran of nearly two decades in the House, has long been rumored to be flirting with the idea of retirement.

• CA-51/San Diego Mayor: As has been hinted for a few months, longtime Democratic Rep. Bob Filner is planning to make a bid to be San Diego’s next mayor. Given that the mayoral primary is not until next June, this would seem to spell the end of Filner’s tenure in the House. Perhaps anticipating as much, the article notes that Filner is moving from Chula Vista to downtown San Diego, which would take him out of his current district. California’s first maps come out at the end of the week, though it seems likely that Filner’s seat will remain with a markedly Democratic lean. Much of the population growth has been in the eastern stretches of the district, which might favor Democratic state Senator Juan Vargas.

• IL-17: Ron Gunzburger of Politics1 tweets that East Moline alderwoman Cheri Bustos (D) is in for a bid to topple freshman Republican Bobby Shilling. Bustos would join state Senator Dave Koehler in the race. As noted earlier in the week by HuffPo’s Will Guzzardi, a batch of Democrats are looking at the House in the wake of the redistricting of the state by the Dem-dominated lege.

• NV-03: In a recurring theme–decide for yourself which is more insulting: a Republican politician making a statement attacking Social Security (or Medicare, or…you get the idea), or the politician’s spokesperson vehemently denying that the thing his boss obviously said wasn’t what he said at all.

• OH-13: For posterity, let it be noted that Congresswoman Betty Sutton was the first to offer to return any cash related to embattled Rep. Anthony Weiner. Props to Catanese for referring to the moolah in question as “weiner-tainted cash.” Sutton is clearly looking ahead to 2012, when she may well face a primary with Dennis Kucinich, assuming Kucinich doesn’t wind up running in one of the other 49 states.

• OK-02: I’d argue this is a pretty damned unimpeachable source. A local blogger in the Sooner State says that state legislator George Faught (R) is mulling a bid for the newly-open 2nd district seat being vacated by Democrat Dan Boren. The blogger? Faught’s son, Jamison.

Other Races:

• Miami-Dade Mayor: This is pretty freaking hilarious. Two men, Julio Robaina and Carlos Giminez, are running for this important municipal post. Both are Republicans. And both are positively sprinting away from any association with the state’s Republican Governor, the reviled Rick Scott. Giminez went so far as to volunteer to local investigative reporter Jim DeFede that he actually voted for Democrat Alex Sink in last year’s election.

• NJ-Legislature: Tuesday’s primaries yielded few surprises, as even the most embattled incumbents managed to hang on to victories. Most notable in this was state Senator Ray Lesniak and Assemblyman Joe Cryan. The two men, fierce rivals of Governor Christie, accused the Gov of backing faux Democrats in an effort to knock them out of the politics. Lesniak came the closest to extinction, winning with 54% of the vote. Meanwhile, down in Atlantic City, mayor Lorenzo Langford is leaning toward an Independent bid to take down Democratic Sen. Jim Whelan. Langford’s presence could hand the seat to GOP challenger Vince Polistina, and Whelan is accusing Langford of working hand-in-glove with the Republican.

• Philadelphia Mayor: It would appear as if Mayor Michael Nutter would like to send a little message to former Mayor John Street–do not enter. Street, a critic of Nutter’s who has been mentioned as a possible opponent to Nutter’s re-election, runs a distant third in a poll conducted for the Nutter campaign by Garin Hart Yang. In the poll, Nutter claims two-thirds of the vote, with Republican Karen Brown (14%) and Street (13%) well behind.

• WI Recall: Yep, it’s pretty hard to deny that you are recruiting candidates to run as spoilers in the other party’s primaries when your own candidate is admitting as much. Octogenarian Otto Junkermann is running as a Democrat against Republican Rob Cowles, even though he speaks of Cowles with nothing other than the deepest admiration. Hmmm…than why run against him, again? The purpose, of course, is to necessitate a primary, which would give Cowles an additional four weeks to prepare a defense for his seat.

Grab Bag:

• Demographics: Could Georgia be following Virginia and North Carolina into “purple state” status? A new article in Roll Call hints that it might, due to the shifting demographics of the state. An influx of both Latino and Asian voters could tweak the numbers at the margins, giving Democrats a boost of a few points. Buried in the article, intriguingly, was a GOP internal conducted in May which showed that Barack Obama would hold a 43-39 lead over Mitt Romney in the state if the election were held today.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Alabama: With only a smidgen of drama, Gov. Robert Bentley signed his state’s redistricting proposal into law. Bentley did rebuff a last-second entreaty from defense-related groups, who wanted both the 4th and 5th districts to have an anchor in Huntsville (presumably to add muscle on their behalf). The new maps seem likely to lock in a 6-1 Republican edge in the state.

• New York: Here may lie the only tie-in to the whole “Weinergate” saga that people here at Daily Kos Elections might find relevant. All this talk about resignation and potential opponents (a list of which was helpfully provided byPolitico) might be for naught. A consensus is slowly forming that the most logical exit route vis-a-vis Weiner may simply be to eliminate his district. After all, one downstate district was a certainty to get collapsed during the redistricting process, and Weiner’s saga makes him the most viable candidate to feel the ax. Both Nate Silver and David Wasserman take their cracks at a Weiner-less map of New York.

• South Carolina: File this under “no surprise, whatsoever”: the newly-passed GOP plans to redraw the state legislative maps are aiming to pad the GOP’s majorities at the expense of Democratic seats, most notably that of Democratic state senator Vincent Sheheen. Eliminating Sheheen’s seat will deny him a perch in the legislature from which he can plan a potential rematch with GOP Governor Nikki Haley, to whom he lost narrowly in 2010.

• Dallas, Texas: This is the kind of thing that is catnip for a lot of us that proudly wear the title of “election junkie.” Dallas has a tool that allows you to try your hand at drawing the lines for the city. To do so, however, you do need tosign up for an account first.

Note: Tomorrow’s digest will be back in the extremely capable hands of Mr. David Nir. Thanks to David for letting me take a turn at the wheel…


 

 

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14 Comments.

  1. Booker would be committing SUICIDE by running against Christie for the governorship in 2013, I’d have him replace Lautenberg in 2014 when he seeks the US Senate seat.

  2. Cory Booker would likely have given Christie a good run…..

    Last time we knocked him though he had good poll numbers……

  3. Hum?….Is Cory Booker trying to do a Barack Obama type run at the Presidency in 2016?

    Get a Senate seat …Then run?….

    Skip the Governors step like Andrew Cuomo?

    … or Hillary Clinton?

  4. DSD…..I don’t think Hillary will run…..

    Maybe I’m wrong….
    But …She seems’s tired ….
    And she see’s her husband having a good time OUT of office…
    You never know….
    But being in her spot maybe she see’s the top job as NOT all that….

    Beside’s Maybe Chelsea and Huma’s children will be enough for her?

  5. Ops!….Chelsea isn’t with child….

  6. Jay Nixon has gotten high marks for his handling of the tragic tornado in Joplin that has now taken over 150 lives.

    Meanwhile Lt. Gov. Pete Kinder has been tarnished by stories of how he used taxpayer funds for fancy hotels in St. Louis while not on official state business. He has since reimbursed the state.

    I don’t expect that Nixon will win by the almost 20 pts. that he did in 2008, but he is in good shape to win a second term.

  7. No matter what….It is good to see elected official’s praised for their actions in handling large mass casuality events….

  8. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a Nixon and a Democrat….

  9. MSNBC has a story

    About Hillary Clinton wanting the job of President of the World Bank

  10. check at your friendly Dog Jack…..We’re on it! http://www.politicaldog101.com/?p=30834

  11. I don’t see Booker winning the Dem nomination. big city mayors have done poorly in that state.

  12. Don’t mean he won’t try…..Why would he jump to the Senate ?….Why not be an excutive as the Governot?

  13. Newark has an awful reputation in New Jersey. Former Newark mayor Gibson once ran for Gov and barely got any votes outside of Newark. The things you have to do to be elected in Newark are the same things that kill candidates in the rest of the state. Also, South Jersey in particular vote heavily for their local candidates. If Booker runs, my best guess is that Booker barely loses in his bid to get the Dem nomination.

  14. Zreebs, eventually the Newark curse will be broken sooner or later.

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