CBC projects CPC plurality of MP’s if not majority…Conservative Canadian PM Harper wins…..Update..

A DSD Highlight….

9:19 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time

Canadian voters have delivered Conservative Leader Stephen Harper another election night victory, but it is still too close to call whether he will head a minority or majority government, CBC News projects.

As of 10 p.m. EST, the Conservatives were leading or elected in 131 seats, followed by the NDP with 78, Liberals with 30 and the Bloc with five.

According to early results, Conservatives and NDP made gains in Atlantic Canada at the expense of the Liberals, who have won the most seats in the region in every federal election since 1997. The Conservatives had 38 per cent of the vote, compared to 30 per cent for the NDP and 29 for the Liberals.

In Labrador, the Conservatives won what was once considered a safe Liberal seat, with Peter Penashue defeating Liberal incumbent Todd Russell. The Tories had been shutout of the province following an “Anything but Conservative” campaign mounted in 2008 by former premier Danny Williams.

Meanwhile, in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, NDP candidate Ryan Cleary defeated Liberal incumbent Siobhan Coady.

The results come as many analysts were caught off guard during the campaign after polls suggested a surge of support for the NDP, specifically in Quebec, following the leaders’ debate in French.

NDP Leader Jack Layton took advantage of this apparent spike, saying that voters were tired of both the Conservatives and Liberals and that the “winds of change” were in the political air.

The polls also forced Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff to alter their strategy and focus more on the NDP leader….

… more at http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/05/02/cv-election-main.html

Update …..

Canadian voters have delivered Conservative Leader Stephen Harper another election night victory, but it is still too close to call whether he will head a minority or majority government, CBC News projects. Meanwhile NDP Leader Jack Layton was set to become Official Opposition leader.

The NDP made a major breakthrough, more than doubling their seat count, while the Liberals were poised to suffer a major electoral loss.

As of 10:15 p.m. EST, the Conservatives were leading or elected in 143 seats, followed by the NDP with 87, Liberals with 29 and the Bloc with three.

According to early results, Conservatives and NDP made gains in Atlantic Canada at the expense of the Liberals, who have won the most seats in the region in every federal election since 1997. The Conservatives had 38 per cent of the vote, compared to 30 per cent for the NDP and 29 for the Liberals.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/05/02/cv-election-main.html (same link as above, updated)

In Atlantic Canada, with most polling places having declared, this is what Elections Canada’s site shows (I don’t have time to look right now at the current standing of the parties by province):

Newfoundland & Labrador (NL): Liberals 4; NDP 2; Conservatives (CPC) 1
Lib 38%; NDP 33%; Cons 28%; turnout 52.5%
1 polling place out of 1,480 yet to declare

Nova Scotia (NS): Liberals 4; Conservatives 4; New Democrats 3
Cons 36.8%; NDP 30.4%; Lib 28.8%; Greens 4.0%; turnout 60.1%
54 out of 2,469 polling places yet to declare

Prince Edward Island (PEI): Liberals 3; Conservatives 1
Cons 41.2%; Lib 40.9%; NDP 15.4%; Greens 2.4%; turnout 73.3%
1 polling place out of 440 yet to declare

New Brunswick (NB): 8 Conservatives, 1 Liberal, 1 New Democrat
Cons 43.8%; NDP 29.8%; Lib 22.6%; Green 3.1%; turnout 63.4%
47 polling places out of 1,968 yet to declare

http://enr.elections.ca/Provinces_e.aspx

Projections and declared seats indicate that Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party of Canada will now have a majority in the House of Commons (more than 155 out of 308) after this election forced by the opposition parties’ vote of no confidence, where before the election the Tories had only a minority government.

The New Democratic Party seems to have eclipsed both the Liberals, Canada’s “natural party of government” and the Bloc Québécois, and Jack Layton of the NDP will replace Michael Ignatieff of the Liberals as the Leader of Her Majesty’s Official Opposition in the Canadian House of Commons. While the Green Party of Canada leads in one riding (district), it won only 3.4% of the vote.

Here’s the latest projection from the CBC:

Canadian voters have delivered Conservative Leader Stephen Harper another election night victory, but it is still too close to call whether he will head a minority or majority government, CBC News projects. Meanwhile NDP Leader Jack Layton was set to become Official Opposition leader.

The NDP, according to projections, made a major breakthrough and appeared to have nearly tripled their seat count, while the Liberals — often touted as Canada’s “natural governing party” — were poised to suffer a stunning historic electoral loss and place third.

As of 10:37 p.m. EST, the Conservatives were elected or leading in 158 seats, followed by the NDP with 107, Liberals with 29 and the Bloc with three. A party needs to capture 155 seats to win a majority in the House of Commons.

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff trailed in his Toronto riding. In Quebec, Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe was trailing behind NDP candidate Hélène Laverdière in the riding of Laurier-Sainte-Marie, in what was shaping out to be a disastrous night for the sovereignist party.

In the battleground province of Ontario, Conservative Chris Alexander was leading over Liberal incumbent Mark Holland in the coveted Greater Toronto Area riding of Ajax-Pickering.

According to early results, Conservatives and NDP made gains in Atlantic Canada at the expense of the Liberals, who have won the most seats in the region in every federal election since 1997. The Conservatives had 38 per cent of the vote, compared to 30 per cent for the NDP and 29 for the Liberals.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/05/02/cv-election-main.html

 

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20 Comments.

  1. thanks DSD!

  2. Illinois Brandon

    Canada’s politics will now become more polorized I fear. Remember the NDP will be Quebec dominated while the Tories will Ontario and the West. Look at how much Quebec hates the Oil Sands of Alberta for example.

  3. could you expand on that brandon?

  4. Illinois Brandon

    The big story is the nearly wipeout of the Bloc and the near of the Liberal Party which has dominated Canada for most of it’s history.

  5. thanks….Brandon….

  6. Sorry, I’ve been watching all the leaders’ speeches and miscellaneous commentary on the CBC web site.

    Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Québécois lost his seat and will step down as BQ leader. The Bloc, who run only in Québec ridings in federal elections, have been pushed down to either 3 or 4 seats (out of 75 in Québec and 308 overall), losing their status as an official party entitled to various parliamentary privileges (e.g., less recognition on the floor and in committees, less right to introduce bills and amendments), and to certain staff, facilities and funds. I’m not sure what the implications will be for the provincial Parti Québécois. The CBC staff and guest commentators warned that, before the NDP, other parties have won great support as the most promising alternative to the nationalists and Liberals in Québec, only to wither away (at one point the Tories, at another the now-defunct Action Démocratique du Québec).

    Michael Ignatieff of the Liberals also lost his seat. The Liberals, historically “Canada’s natural party of government”, are now down to something between 33 and 35 seats, which is roughly the NDP’s average over the last two or three decades.

    The Greens won their first seat, Saanich-Gulf Islands, on Vancouver Island, just north of Victoria (and opposite the city of Vancouver) for their leader Elizabeth May. This echoes the first ever Westminster parliamentary seat won by the British Greens’ leader last year. However, to win this seat under the first-past-the-post/single-member system that Canada shares with the U.S. and (at least until next Thursday) the U.K., the Green Party of Canada concentrated much of its volunteer effort, electoral machinery and money on this single riding, to the apparent loss of its national presence. The Greens’ percentage of the national Canadian vote plummeted by nearly half, or by almost 3% to 3.9%.

    The New Democratic Party (or since most of its MP’s now come from Québec, le Nouvel Parti Démocratique) which was formed fifty years ago by an alliance of the western agrarian socialist Cooperative Commonwealth Federation with the Canadian Labour Congress, has won a historic victory, tripling its MP’s to something between 102 and 104, or a third of the House of Commons’ 308, and becoming Her Majesty’s Official Opposition. This has never happened before. It won about 31% of the national vote, compared to the Tories 40% and the Liberals’ 19%. By reversing positions with the Liberals, it has put the Liberals into a position somewhat analogous to the Liberals and then Liberal Democrats in Britain since 1918, as a centre party struggling to distinguish its message from two big parties on either side.

    I’ll see how this looks printed out, before considering adding any more comments.

  7. commentary continued (just when you thought you were safe)

    But there’s a paradox in the NDP/NPD’s victory. Facing a minority Conservative government, all the opposition parties had some tangible political power that could be used to negotiate with Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a potential threat which they finally exercised last March by joining together (rather than abstaining) on a vote of confidence, thus precipitating this week’s election.

    Now that Harper has a modest but real overall majority of about two dozen over all other parties combined (roughly 167 to 141), he can govern, should he wish, for almost the full four year maximum term of the next Parliament, according to the wishes of his own Cabinet, parliamentary caucus and national party, bound by the Canadian Constitution and parliamentary convention, but not by the wishes of other parties.

    Sometimes such a majority can vanish in far fewer than four years, of course, either because of some scandal, crisis or emergency, or because seats are lost from splits, defections or by losing an unusually large number of byelections (caused by retirements, deaths, expulsions or disqualifications). If the opposition parties or independent were able to win a net baker’s dozen of such byelections (winning 13 more Tory seats than they lose to the Tories), Harper’s majority would be lost and he would again have to lead a minority government or form what he warned against throughout the 2011 campaign: a coalition on the British model.

  8. With only 47 out of 71,513 polling places yet to report, here are the official preliminary results from Elections Canada:

    (MP’s elected; national popular vote; percentage of national popular vote)

    308 – 14,716,492 TOTAL

    167 – 5,830,695 (39.6%) Conservative Party of Canada
    102 – 4,506,702 (30.6%) New Democratic Party
    _34 – 2,782,631 (18.9%) Liberal Party of Canada
    __4 – _,889,980 (_6.1%) Bloc Québécois
    __1 – _,575,978 (_3.9%) Green Party of Canada

    not represented in the next parliament:

    63,340 (0.4%) Independents
    19,216 (0.1%) Christian Heritage Party of Canada
    10,147 (0.1%) Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada
    _9,391 (0.1%) No affiliation
    _6,017 (0.0%) Libertarian
    _5,838 (0.0%) Progressive Conservative Party
    _3,822 (0.0%) Rhinoceros Party
    _3,198 (0.0%) Pirate Party
    _2,925 (0.0%) Communist Party of Canada
    _2,030 (0.0%) Canadian Action Party
    _1,270 (0.0%) three other parties (FPNP, WBP & United Party)

  9. May 2, 2011

    Tories sweep to majority, NDP to Opposition in historic election

    By PATRICK BRETHOUR

    [Toronto] Globe and Mail Update
    Duceppe quits as Bloc nears extinction, Ignatieff loses riding, May wins first Green seat

    Canadian voters have radically redrawn the country’s political landscape, handing the Conservative Party its long-sought majority in an election that decimated the Bloc Québécois and humbled the Liberals.

    For the first time in history, the New Democratic Party will form the Official Opposition after an extraordinary breakthrough that propelled the party to more than 100 seats.

    The extent of the transformation is startling. The Liberals now hold just four seats west of Guelph, Ont. The Conservatives, formerly shunned by Toronto voters, won nearly half of the seats in that city, twice as many as the Liberals.

    The Bloc Québécois, which defined Quebec federal politics for two decades, no longer qualifies for official party status. And Green Party Leader Elizabeth May won the party’s first seat, and the right to a place in the next election’s debates.

    Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe lost his seat and resigned. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff lost his riding. Both defeated leaders were squeezed, like many of their candidates, between growth in Conservative support and Jack Layton’s surging New Democrats.

    The night belonged to Stephen Harper, who put his party over the top after five years of minority government and becomes just the third Conservative leader since Confederation to win triple victories.

    “We are intensely aware that we are and must be the government of all Canadians, including those that did not vote for us,” Mr. Harper said.

    Parliament was radically remade. The fragmentation of the 1993 election has been reversed, with the Conservatives and NDP emerging as national parties with support across all regions of the country, although the Tories find themselves in an unusual position, as a majority government with just a handful of Quebec seats.

    “I’ve always favoured proposition over opposition,” Mr. Layton told a cheering crowd. “But we will oppose the government when it’s off track. I will propose constructive solutions focused on helping Canadians.”

    With almost all polls reporting, the Conservatives were elected in 167 ridings, and the NDP in 102, more than double its best historical tally. The Liberals were reduced to the lowest seat count in their history, elected in just 34 seats. The Bloc had just four.

    “I’m leaving, but others will follow, until Quebec becomes a country,” Mr. Duceppe said.

    Mr. Ignatieff said he did not plan to step down as Liberal leader, adding that “democracy teaches hard lessons.”

    The next Parliament will return to the traditional shape of majority government, but it will be a very different House of Commons, with the Official Opposition well left of centre, the regional agenda of the Bloc largely excised, and the wild card of a Green MP.

    “We need hope over fear, compassion over competition,” Ms. May told a jubilant crowd, before focusing on the wider Parliament of which she is now a member. “We are elected to serve the people of Canada, not one ideology.”

    Worries (and hopes) that the NDP’s jump in the polls would fade at the ballot box did not materialize…..

    …. continued, with much more analysis, at: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-sweep-to-majority-ndp-to-opposition-in-historic-election/article2006635/

  10. Scratch (delete) the previous post. Let’s try that again with proper accents instead of gobbledygook:

    Tories sweep to majority, NDP to Opposition in historic election

    PATRICK BRETHOUR
    [Toronto] Globe and Mail Update

    Published Monday, May. 02, 2011 8:50AM EDT
    Last updated Tuesday, May. 03, 2011 2:53AM EDT

    Canadian voters have radically redrawn the country’s political landscape, handing the Conservative Party its long-sought majority in an election that decimated the Bloc Québécois and humbled the Liberals.

    For the first time in history, the New Democratic Party will form the Official Opposition after an extraordinary breakthrough that propelled the party to more than 100 seats.

    The extent of the transformation is startling. The Liberals now hold just four seats west of Guelph, Ont. The Conservatives, formerly shunned by Toronto voters, won nearly half of the seats in that city, twice as many as the Liberals.

    The Bloc Québécois, which defined Quebec federal politics for two decades, no longer qualifies for official party status. And Green Party Leader Elizabeth May won the party’s first seat, and the right to a place in the next election’s debates.

    Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe lost his seat and resigned. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff lost his riding. Both defeated leaders were squeezed, like many of their candidates, between growth in Conservative support and Jack Layton’s surging New Democrats.

    The night belonged to Stephen Harper, who put his party over the top after five years of minority government and becomes just the third Conservative leader since Confederation to win triple victories.

    “We are intensely aware that we are and must be the government of all Canadians, including those that did not vote for us,” Mr. Harper said.

    Parliament was radically remade. The fragmentation of the 1993 election has been reversed, with the Conservatives and NDP emerging as national parties with support across all regions of the country, although the Tories find themselves in an unusual position, as a majority government with just a handful of Quebec seats.

    “I’ve always favoured proposition over opposition,” Mr. Layton told a cheering crowd. “But we will oppose the government when it’s off track. I will propose constructive solutions focused on helping Canadians.”

    With almost all polls reporting, the Conservatives were elected in 167 ridings, and the NDP in 102, more than double its best historical tally. The Liberals were reduced to the lowest seat count in their history, elected in just 34 seats. The Bloc had just four.

    “I’m leaving, but others will follow, until Quebec becomes a country,” Mr. Duceppe said.

    Mr. Ignatieff said he did not plan to step down as Liberal leader, adding that “democracy teaches hard lessons.”

    The next Parliament will return to the traditional shape of majority government, but it will be a very different House of Commons, with the Official Opposition well left of centre, the regional agenda of the Bloc largely excised, and the wild card of a Green MP.

    “We need hope over fear, compassion over competition,” Ms. May told a jubilant crowd, before focusing on the wider Parliament of which she is now a member. “We are elected to serve the people of Canada, not one ideology.”

    Worries (and hopes) that the NDP’s jump in the polls would fade at the ballot box did not materialize.

    Jack Layton and his party saw support climb nationwide to almost 31 per cent. The Conservatives’ popular vote edged up close to the 40-per-cent mark, continuing the steady growth of the last three elections. But the Liberals saw their popular vote plummet to just 19 per cent from 26 per cent.

    …. continued, with much more analysis, at: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-sweep-to-majority-ndp-to-opposition-in-historic-election/article2006635/

  11. This is what happens when stupid fools get to vote. and they call it democracy. unfortunately,people just dont know where ther interest lies.
    amd Remember Mike Harris and the non sense revolution. Well this is pretty much the same.as welfare and unemployed fools , voting for the conservatives. And so lets hope and pray the conservatives not as radicle as the Harris revolution.And the conservatives are looking ro privatize health care, cut and gut unemployment insurance and other social safety nets….

  12. well we have been fooled again by the sheep in a wolfs clothing.And though Mr Harpers may appear to be more moderate in the past , because he had to deal with a minority parliament. but now with a majority govt he can do as he pleases.

  13. Yes we will see the real harper now. The Neo con who favours the privaitization of health care.and the this Neo Con next will offer vouchers to senoirs, and cut funding to Provinces, for health care. this is the de- evolution of canada and a system more like that fo th US….. We have lost Oh Canada

  14. I see from Wikipedia’s list of newspaper endorsements in this election that almost every Canadian newspaper which made an endosement supported the Tories, even the Globe & Mail and Toronto Star.

  15. He, he, he….

  16. Thanks DSD for the coverage….

  17. Illinois Brandon

    The GOP could sure use a Stephen Harper to help rebrand them a more moderate party.

  18. Stephen Harper’s historic role was to united the hard core western Reform Party with the traditional Progressive Conservatives. The Reform Party (begun by Preston Manning and partly descended from Social Credit) was socially conservative, militantly opposed to Quebec nationalism and much closer to the U.S. Republican Party than the Progressive Conservatives, who were the historic Canadian party of the right led by John Diefenbaker, Joe Clark and Brian Mulroney.

    So I’m not sure if an American Stephen Harper would reform the GOP into a more moderate brand. On the other hand, he’s been very careful to say that while he’s prepared to give provinces more flexibility, he won’t abandon the principle of (wait, now) universal health insurance. I think he’s been more moderate as he’s led a minority government, having to deal with other parties, and also on the campaign trail, but we’ll have to see what his programme will be now that he has a majority of MP’s (not of voters).

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