Here in the land of competitive race # 2 the decision of fmr. Sen. Jim Talent to sit out the 2012 Senate race looks to ensure a rather large pool of contenders to challenge Claire McCaskill
This morning the guy who narrowly lost to my Congressman Russ Carnahan in Nov–Ed Martin announced he is upping the ante and will run for Senate
Other Missouri Republicans who have won House races are also looking to jump in–including Jo Ann Emerson and Sam Graves.
Sarah Steelman–the former state treasurer who lost a GOP primary for Gov. in 2008 is the only other candidate besides Martin to announce.
The MO Republican establishment has little use for Steelman, but she came close to knocking off their pick for Governor 3 yrs. ago–then Rep. Kenny Hulshof.
If the establishment can’t rally around one of these folks Steelman could win a contested primary, but will the party be as unified as they need to be to knock off McCaskill?
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If you want me a bet especially after Ed Martin jumped into this Contest is that Sam Graves will run and after Talent bowed out Graves would be by far the strongest Recruit the GOP has left there.
More importantly Graves (with th Entry of Martin) has now a better Chance winning the Primary as Steelman & Martin are likely splitting up the Anti-Establishment Vote.
With Rehberg now running in Montana the Chances for the Dems to hold the Senate after 2012 got an awful lot grimmer.
We’ve currently 47 Seats:
Winning the Open North Dakota Seat brings us to 48
Winning in Nebraska (Ben Nelson) Cornhusker Kickback brings us to 49
Winning in Montana (Jon Tester) brings us to 50
and then assuming Scott Brown loses in MA (which is not a given) we need only to win 2 out of 4 in Missouri, Ohio, Florida and Virginia not to mention that Michigan might be competitive if either Hoekstra or Terri Lynn Land are running against Stabenow.
Ah, Daniel is back!
It will be tough for the Dem’s in the Senate in the 2012′s…..
I’m hoping they can hold a narrow majority….
Obama winning may help in several of the close races since everyone now belives things have gotten more national…
Daniel G., I have the Senate outlook like this:
Republicans winning Nebraska (almost forgone conclusion), Montana, North Dakota, Ohio (the OH GOP is super-energized with the GOP having full control of state government from top to bottom), Virginia, Florida and maybe Wisconsin (could Kohl be second incumbent Dem in the state to get the boot ?) could give the GOP 54 seats in the Senate.
I’m keeping my eye on Missouri (though Gov. Nixon will likely get reelected, he’s won 5 statewide elections) and Michigan.
Sam Graves announced he isn’t running for the Senate in 2012
Rep. Jo Ann Emerson is still looking at the race.
About 8 years ago, the GOP looked as if they had completely locked out the Democratic Party from the courthouse to the statehouse in both Ohio and Indiana.
It didn’t quite turn out that way (for one thing, both states voted for Obama).
So while unbridled optimism is hardly in order for Democrats there, I don’t think any of them should surrender to irredeemable gloom.