Democratic chances of retaining control of the House are essentially unchanged in today’s FiveThirtyEight forecast. They have a 21 percent chance of doing so, up from 20 percent on Friday; that means Republicans have a 79 percent chance of instead claiming control. The average projection returned a result of 205 Democrats in the House and 230 Republicans, which would reflect a gain of 51 seats for the G.O.P.; this figure is unchanged.
There is little evidence of a change in the fundamental conditions of the race as the campaign enters its final full week.
The Gallup generic ballot poll, which publishes results using two separate turnout models, had its “enthusiasm gap” closing somewhat: it now has Republicans gain either a net of 5 or a net of 10 points when likely voters are accounted for rather than all registered ones, depending on which model is used. This enthusiasm gap is somewhat lesser for Democrats than in past surveys, when Gallup had found differences of as large as 10 and 16 points, respectively, and brings Gallup into better alignment with other polls.NATE SILVER
Democrats have made progress in several states in our latest gubernatorial forecast. Although it remains very probable that Republicans will control the majority of the nation’s governorships after Nov. 2, it is now more likely that Democratic and independent candidates can hold Republicans to victories in 20 to 23 of the 37 contests that will be held on Election Day.
Most of the Democrats’ gains in the new forecast come in blue states. InMaryland, the race appears to have shifted sharply for the Democratic incumbent, Martin O’Malley, who holds double-digit leads over Robert Ehrlich, a former governor, in three new surveys. Mr. O’Malley also has at least 52 percent of the vote in each of the surveys, and Mr. Ehrlich’s winning chances have dropped to just 4 percent from 19 percent, according to the model.
In Hawaii, a state that had shown some surprisingly close polling, a survey for the Honolulu Advertiser gives Democrat Neil Abercrombie an 8-point lead over the Republican Duke Aiona; three surveys conducted earlier this month had shown a lead for Mr. Abercrombie of just 2 to 3 points. Hawaii is a tricky state to poll, and some of the work there has been odd this year — for instance, a Rasmussen poll that gave longtime incumbent Daniel Inouye just a 13-point lead against a complete unknown in the Senate race there. I’m not going to pretend to know exactly how to untangle everything, but the model now has Mr. Abercrombie as an 85 percent favorite, up from 79 percent. Read more…