2009 Political Correspondents Open Thread……Tell us what you think?…..add to the list….

Merlin has requested some comments on the people who TRY to bring us political news…day in and day out…he starts off the list with these people and his ratings….

We are soliciting your comments on the people on the list and are looking for additons…..local personailties qualify….we’re looking for feed back people!

CNN

Wolf Blitzer = B +
John King = A
Gloria Borger = A +
Yessica Yellin = B
Candy Crowley = B +
Ed Henry = A
Dan Lothian = C
Dana Bash = C +

MSNBC

Norah O’Donnell = A ++

Note:….I would give  John king a A….he’s been my favorite….Candy Crowley gets a A for hanging in their every election cycle..she makes mistakes when ad libbing..but she’s been there  for the last few cycles….Ed Henery gets to go to Hawaii every Holiday week with the new President….not bad duty….Wolf Blitzer is not my cup of tea….he should be replaced by King…..I deterst Chuck Todd from over at MSNBC….who during the Democratic primaries was clearly enamored of the Obama campaign…..he’d get a D- from me….

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The U.S. Senate seats status as of Decemeber 2009 ……

We’re borrowing these numbers from Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com ……. I’ve commented on certain states….Merlin is not going to agree on my comments……

Races are ranked in order of their likelihood of changing parties by November 2010, accounting for all factors such as potential retirements, primary challenges, and so forth.

Likelihood of party switch has increased since October‘s rankings.
Likelihood of party switch has decreased since October.

1. Delaware (D-Open) — The reason I keep this one in first position is because Beau Biden has yet to declare and there’s a small chance he won’t run, in which case it’s a walk for Mike Castle. If Castle wins close to 100 percent of the time that Biden doesn’t run, and 55 percent of the time that he does, then that puts his odds above 60 percent overall. ( Notice…he says small chance? )

2.  Connecticut (D-Dodd) — You probably know how skeptical I tend to be of internal polls. So when an incumbent candidate publishes an internal poll that shows him behind his leading Republican opponent, you know that he’s in trouble. With that said, this race is a long way from over; Republicans could still wind up nominating a goofy candidate like Linda McMahon, and there likewise remains a chance that Dodd won’t be the Democratic nominee. ( Notice….. he says..long way from over...)

3. Missouri (R-Open) — Robin Carnahan’s polling has been very stable, continuing to show her with a very slight lead. That’s probably because her opponent, Roy Blunt, is a rather vocal member of the sitting Republican Congress, which is losing popularity just as quickly as the Democrats in Congress are. He’s the wrong candidate for this type of cycle.

4. Nevada (D-Reid) — The reasons why Reid could lose are fairly self-evident, both on a polling and a narrative basis. So here’s why he could still win: (1) $$$$$$, (2) it’ll be harder to brand him as ineffectual if he passes health care, (3) Nevada is a machine state and Democrats control the machine, (4) Republican candidates are untested. ( I agrree…Reid should win...)

5. Colorado (D-Bennet) — We need more polling here.

6.  Arkansas (D-Lincoln) — No doubt Blanche Lincoln has the fight of her life on her hands, but perceptions that she’s dead meat are formed principally by Rasmussen’s polling, whereas most other polls have continued to show her with a slight lead. Following my advice, she also managed to stay out of the spotlight at the end of the health care debate as Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman led the three-ring circus instead. (another winner for the  dem’s considering ALL factors )

7.  Ohio (R-Open) — Some of the polling has started to move Rob Portman’s way. Fundamentally, though, this will still be about whether Portman is cast as the Responsible Deficit Hawk or the Bushie Cabinet Hack, a dynamic that should keep this one close straight through to November. ( as the economy comes back …the dem’s will come back…it’s too early to rule this GOP )

8.  Kentucky (R-Open) — Upgraded because it looks like Rand Paul will be the Republican nominee. Kentucky is not a very libertarian-friendly state; it tends, rather, to be in the opposite corner, conservative on social issues but supportive of an economic safety net. So — although Paul will surely raise millions from activists all over the country — there’s a chance this plays out something like NY-23, where a national message proves to be a bit tone-deaf in an idiosyncratic corner of the country. (he, he, he….again Nate hedges his bets, huh? )

9.  Pennsylvania (D-Specter) — Democrats are going to want to make this one about Pat Toomey, who in an ordinary cycle would meet Rick Santorum’s fate. But 2010 may not be an ordinary cycle — the larger the national “wave” the less the particulars of the candidates may matter (this was how Santorum got elected in the first place). And Arlen Specter’s flip-floppin’ gives Toomey plenty of ammunition and might allow Toomey to control the tempo of the campaign. So, upon further reflection, I’ve become a bit more inclined to believe the polling here, which shows the race to be a toss-up. But the polling also shows that more voters move into the undecided camp in the event that Joe Sestak is the nominee, in which case the strategy of attacking Toomey could be more effectual. (ole’ Arlen is ahead slightly in the democratic primary race….and will win a general…that’s my guess)

10. New Hampshire (R-Open) — New Hampshire tends to be a very good bellwether for national trends, perhaps because it’s a well-educated state where people watch a lot of news and really enjoy the sport of politics. And since the national momentum is likely to favor the Republicans in November, that means Paul Hodes is running into a bit of a headwind. (again…..like in most of these races the poll is now…an economic comeback will change things considerably…)

11.  Illinois (D-Burris) — Rasmussen actually shows a tiny bit of momentum toward the Democrat Giannoulias. Mark Kirk is in a somewhat awkward position; he was elected repeatedly in Democratic-leaning IL-10 by running unashamedly as a moderate, but that’s not where the GOP zeitgeist is this year and he’s accumulated a more conservative voting record. I don’t care how bad the national environment is — I’m not sure you can win by reflexively opposing Barack Obama’s agenda in Barack Obama’s home state. (agreed…..I’m with Alexi pulling this one out)

12. North Carolina (R-Burr) — If there’s one thing I’m certain of it’s that North Carolina belongs in the #12 position; it marks the dividing line between those races that can basically be considered to be toss-ups and those that clearly lean toward the incumbent party.

13.  Florida (R-Open) — I’m pretty sure that Marco Rubio now has to be considered the favorite in the Republican primary. I’m not a huge believer in “trends” — meaning, I don’t think you should necessarily assume that just because a candidate has been gaining ground means that he’ll continue to do so. But in this case, the trends have been pretty bleepin’ overwhelming and have been accompanied by a disastrous narrative that has developed around Crist. In any event, whether it’s Rubio who emerges or a wounded Crist, this race has come somewhat back on the radar screen as an opportunity for Democrats. ( YEA BOY!…..my man Meek has a excellent chance if Rubio wrestles the noimination from Crist…I’ve called this way for a while! )

14.  North Dakota (D-Dorgan) — There are several polls showing John Hoeven with a huge lead over Byron Dorgan if he decides to enter, but all were conducted by Republican-leaning outfits. I’m a little bit suspicious of this sort of polling when the national party is trying to recruit a candidate into the race. Also, as a sitting governor whose term doesn’t expire until 2012, Hoeven would have to explain to the electorate why he quit the governorship to challenge a fairly popular incumbent, which could instantly take a bite out of his numbers. So, I’m upgrading this race slightly on upside potential for the Republicans, but Hoeven remains an underdog to enter (having already blown through his self-imposed deadline of September) and is hardly a shoo-in if he does. (agreed…the polling is against a guy who is still not in the race….)

15. Louisiana (R-Vitter) — Nothing in the way of new polling here. Vitter’s failings are personal rather than political and are somewhat old news. I’m just not sure this is a winnable seat for Democrats in a state that has gone very red very quickly. (agreed...)

16. Iowa (R-Grassley) — Democrats have gotten a semi-interesting candidate in the form of Roxanne Conlin, who has 73 percent name recognition in Iowa. Although Grassley, who had built up a large reservoir of goodwill, has probably not hurt himself quite enough to lose, the health care fight undermined his brand as a bipartisan dealmaker. This race deserves more polling.

17.  New York (D-Gillibrand) — Would Rudy have made the same decision not to run for national office if the Eunuch Bomber had struck on Thanksgiving rather than Christmas? ( this race is not a race if no big name Republican runs (Pataki has a horrible record as Governor)…..I hope Bill Thompson, the failed NYC mayoral candidate primaries her…..I do not think Ms. Gillibrand is the best choice for the seat…the dem’s could have done better…much better….)

18. Wisconsin (D-Feingold) — The buzz that Tommy Thompson might run seems to have died down. Nor do I know why Thompson would challenge a fairly popular incumbent for the Senate when there’s an open seat in the governor’s mansion instead.

19. California (D-Boxer)

20.  Indiana (D-Bayh) — Republicans have gotten themselves a candidate here in the form of six-term Congressman John Hostettler. Although Hostettler is a notoriously weak campaigner and Bayh has historically won by huge margins, this race could conceivably become interesting at the upper bound conditions of Republican momentum.  (Bayh is boring )

21.  Arizona (R-McCain) — It’s getting a bit late for J.D. Hayworth to primary John McCain and Democrats would have to scramble to find their own candidate even if he did. But one contrary indicator: a Republican poll sponsored by a McCain-backing group tested negative messages about Hayworth, which suggests that somebody is at least a little bit nervous.

22.  Texas (R-Open?) — Bill White will run for governor rather than Senate, which robs Democrats of most of their opportunity — especially since it has become less clear that Kay Bailey Hutchison will resign her seat in the first place.

23.  South Carolina (R-DeMint) — A PPP poll shows that Jim DeMint could potentially be vulnerable. But Democrats have almost no infrastructure in the Palmetto State, which probably makes this an academic question.

24.  Georgia (R-Isakson) — I’m going to start to downgrade some of these races where there’s no fresh polling and no credible opponent.

25.  Hawaii (D-Inouye) — Ditto.

26. Massachusetts (D-Open) — It’s worth polling the special general, which will occur in just three weeks, but I’m pretty sure that Massachusetts will soon have a Senator Coakley.

27. Oklahoma (R-Coburn)

28. Alaska (R-Murkowski)

29. Kansas (R-Open)

30. Maryland (D-Mikulski)

31. Washington (D-Murray)

32. Alabama (R-Shelby)

33. South Dakota (R-Thune)

34. Vermont (D-Leahy)

35. Oregon (D-Wyden)

36. Utah (R-Bennett)

37. New York (Sr.) (D-Schumer)

38. Idaho (R-Crapo)


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Things swing back the other way…….58% of American's favor waterboarding to get info from badguys…..

This is how things go when the media goes batshit on a subject…….first they broke Obama’s chops because  the U.S. had a torture policy…now things swing the other way…..

It’s also why I posted the same sentiments and picked up BS oversight, when the torture policy got changed…….

This info is from a Rasmussen Poll linked above……

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Ke$ha breaks female download record…….

The 22 years old Kesha (Kesha Rose Sebert) has broken Lady Gaga,’s previous (female) seven-day record digital record (419,000 copies) of “Just Dance” from a year ago…….

Ke$ha has done  610,000 downloads in the past week……..the song, Tik Tok” , is only eclipsed in total downloads by male Flo Rida , who has the overall record at 636,000 downloads for his record “Right Round”…..which Kesha sang on getting no mention…..

That is a lot of downloads for one week!

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Kate Gosselin maybe trying to find a date…..on TV……

Pretty lady available for love…strong willed….nice body…..wild hair cut…….ah, eight kids…….

Contact the Produces for a pre-date interview….on camera…..

Stay tuned……..

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Linda McMahon is trying to buy her way into the Senate from Connecticut……

This from Mydd.com….

She is a political novice seeking to unseat one of the most powerful Democrats in the United States Senate. But Linda McMahon does possess one big weapon: a vast personal fortune that she is already wielding to shake up the race.

Ms. McMahon has been saturating residents with television advertisements, pouring money into the campaigns of local elected officials and building a campaign organization that dwarfs its rivals.

The spending, roughly $5 million, more than 10 months before the election, has transformed Ms. McMahon, the former chief executive of World Wrestling Entertainment, into a potent political force as she seeks the Republican nomination to challenge Senator Christopher J. Dodd.

The campaign of Ms. McMahon’s main rival in the Republican primary, former Representative Rob Simmons, has responded with a wave of attacks as he suddenly finds himself contending with a formidable opponent.

Even Democrats close to the Dodd campaign acknowledge concerns about facing Ms. McMahon in a general election, given the huge sums of money she has been willing to spend in the first few months of the race. Her campaign says she is prepared to spend at least $30 million to win the seat.

Wresling is her sport, huh?….we’ll see how she wrestles in the politcal arena……

It seems to have been very good to her pocketbook, also……

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This is NOT what we should do in the wake of NW 235….the radical's crawl out from unders the rocks…..

This from Newt Gingrich…….

The U.S. government should “discriminate” and “profile” for radical Islamic terrorists, former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich said Wednesday morning.

I knew that was coming…following Rep. Peter King (R-NY)  ….these guys want to go back to good ole’ days of interment camps and “JimCrow’……

Like I say…Political overeaction….

Both of these guys happen happen to be white male Republicans……..

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NW 235 reaction?…….

Is it me ?….or is the media still going batshit crazy over this story?

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Open Thread for the last day of the year…Decemeber 31….2009….

The last day of the year…a good day…to refelcet, and to giddy up along……

Subscribe.….. you Dog friends!…….

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Rush Lambaugh rushed to the hospital…..complaining of chest pains…..

Hope he’s alright…….

He maybe a knucklehead…but I wish the best for him…..

He’s in Hawaii…..

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Mariah Carey may star as Vanessa Hudgens mother in a movie?

Wow…..Mariah Carey is only 39 years old…and Hudgens ia only 19……I mean ……that would be entirely possible……

Mariah better do a good job…another ‘Glitter ‘and she’s had it……

Say…is she gonna have a kid?…..( I know that is sexist, but is she gonna have a kid?…for real?….JLo had twins……)

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Tiger Woods seen with Rachel Uchitel…..

I stopped writing about the ‘brother’….but I told my wife he’s gonna end up with Rachel….

I hate to go there…… but remember Prince Charles of England?

Update:…..her lawyer says the reports are untrue….hum?

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The Feds are trying make mortagage closings more human……

You ever buy a house?

The closing is just one endless sign this…sign that…sign this…..write out a check for that……

Good Faith Estimates have been around for decades, but there was no standard format. Under the new rules, lenders and mortgage brokers will be required to give consumers the estimate forms within three days of receiving a loan application.

Lenders aren’t allowed to increase the origination fee from the estimate. Some other charges not included in the origination fee, such as title services and recording charges, can increase by as much as a combined 10% from the estimate. Estimates for other charges, such as homeowner’s insurance and other services provided by third parties selected by the borrower, aren’t subject to such limits.

Title insurance typically is the largest fee, and the new forms let consumers know they don’t have to accept the insurer suggested by the lender.  Title insurance can be “vastly overpriced” and consumers should take the time to shop for it.

Take it from me…You still are going come out from your lawyer’s office, or the bank happy after buying your dream house…..but, still thinking,What???

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The Democrats are set to drop 'superdelegates ' from their primary process…..amen…..

The Democrat National Committee is set to make the ‘superdelegates’ honorary positions…..taking them out of the nominating process…the policy to use them is carry over from when the party could pick its candidates in back room deals ( which probably can still happen ) but not in public……..

It’s about time….while Hillary could have surely benefited from a reversal of the primary votes in each state …the grief it would have caused in the media would have made such a deal worthless…..get rid of the system…..

….and stick to the tentative deal to push back most of the state primary dates further into the years….the last run was way too early……

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13 GOP Attorney General's want the "Nebraska Compromise" stripped from the Healthacare Bill….

They have written to Speaker of the House Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Reid formally requesting Senator Ben Nelson’s (D- Neb.) sweetner be eliminated as illegal……

Here’s more…..

“The fundamental unfairness of H.R. 3590 may also give rise to claims under the due process, equal protection, privileges and immunities clauses and other provisions of the Constitution,” they wrote.

The state officials say they are “contemplating” legal action but would not go through with it if it is removed from the bill. They claim they do not find any other Constitutional objections to the bill.

Some Republicans have argued that the bill’s individual mandate to buy health insurance also violated the Constitution.

…..and this is copy of the letter…….

December 30, 2009

The Honorable Nancy Pelosi

Speaker, United States House of Representatives

Washington, DC 20515

The Honorable Harry Reid

Majority Leader, United States Senate

Washington, DC 20510

The undersigned state attorneys general, in response to numerous inquiries, write to express our grave concern with the Senate version of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“H.R. 3590”). The current iteration of the bill contains a provision that affords special treatment to the state of Nebraska under the federal Medicaid program. We believe this provision is constitutionally flawed. As chief legal officers of our states we are contemplating a legal challenge to this provision and we ask you to take action to render this challenge unnecessary by striking that provision.

It has been reported that Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson’s vote, for H.R. 3590, was secured only after striking a deal that the federal government would bear the cost of newly eligible Nebraska Medicaid enrollees. In marked contrast all other states would not be similarly treated, and instead would be required to allocate substantial sums, potentially totaling billions of dollars, to accommodate H.R. 3590’s new Medicaid mandates. In addition to violating the most basic and universally held notions of what is fair and just, we also believe this provision of H.R. 3590 is inconsistent with protections afforded by the United States Constitution against arbitrary legislation.

In Helvering v. Davis, 301 U.S 619, 640 (1937), the United States Supreme Court warned that Congress does not possess the right under the Spending Power to demonstrate a “display of arbitrary power.” Congressional spending cannot be arbitrary and capricious. The spending power of Congress includes authority to accomplish policy objectives by conditioning receipt of federal funds on compliance with statutory directives, as in the Medicaid program. However, the power is not unlimited and “must be in pursuit of the ‘general welfare.’ ” South Dakota v. Dole, 483 U.S. 203, 207 (1987). In Dole the Supreme Court stated, “that conditions on federal grants might be illegitimate if they are unrelated to the federal interest in particular national projects or programs.” Id. at 207. It seems axiomatic that the federal interest in H.R. 3590 is not simply requiring universal health care, but also ensuring that the states share with the federal government the cost of providing such care to their citizens. This federal interest is evident from the fact this legislation would require every state, except Nebraska, to shoulder its fair share of the increased Medicaid costs the bill will generate. The provision of the bill that relieves a single state from this cost-sharing program appears to be not only unrelated, but also antithetical to the legitimate federal interests in the bill.

The fundamental unfairness of H.R. 3590 may also give rise to claims under the due process, equal protection, privileges and immunities clauses and other provisions of the Constitution. As a practical matter, the deal struck by the United States Senate on the “Nebraska Compromise” is a disadvantage to the citizens of 49 states. Every state’s tax dollars, except Nebraska’s, will be devoted to cost-sharing required by the bill, and will be therefore unavailable for other essential state programs. Only the citizens of Nebraska will be freed from this diminution in state resources for critical state services. Since the only basis for the Nebraska preference is arbitrary and unrelated to the substance of the legislation, it is unlikely that the difference would survive even minimal scrutiny.

We ask that Congress delete the Nebraska provision from the pending legislation, as we prefer to avoid litigation. Because this provision has serious implications for the country and the future of our nation’s legislative process, we urge you to take appropriate steps to protect the Constitution and the rights of the citizens of our nation. We believe this issue is readily resolved by removing the provision in question from the bill, and we ask that you do so.

By singling out the particular provision relating to special treatment of Nebraska, we do not suggest there are no other legal or constitutional issues in the proposed health care legislation.

Please let us know if we can be of assistance as you consider this matter.

Sincerely,

Henry McMaster

Attorney General, South Carolina

Rob McKenna

Attorney General, Washington

Mike Cox

Attorney General, Michigan

Greg Abbott

Attorney General, Texas

John Suthers

Attorney General, Colorado

Troy King

Attorney General, Alabama

Wayne Stenehjem

Attorney General, North Dakota

Bill Mims

Attorney General, Virginia

Tom Corbett

Attorney General, Pennsylvania

Mark Shurtleff

Attorney General, Utah

Bill McCollum

Attorney General, Florida

Lawrence Wasden

Attorney General, Idaho

Marty Jackley

Attorney General, South Dakota

Ok, how far is this going to go?……Does a state have a chance against something the majority party wants?…..the Supremes can read the tea leaves also……

Stay tuned….

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Females sharing apartments comes top Japan…..

Single women have multiplied in Japan’s big cities and the economic troubles the country suffered along with everywhere else has created a glut of empty apartments too expensive for single female’s in that country to rent…..

What to do?

How about renting rooms in large apartments to individual females?

The idea is new and different to the country…but with real estate agents realizing they can get more money per apartment with multiple renter and young women making a room rentals to save money …the idea has caught on…..I don’t live in Japan so I don’t know how much….the author of this piece seems to think it’s there to stay……

Ah, they are still going to have to work the kinks out….I’m sure……

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