Republicans want this country closed off and back to the 1950’s…Open Thread for Dec 8, 2017….

No more immigrants….

Hunt down those who came here illegally , cuff them and ship them out

No more abortions…

Black and poor people denied the right to vote….

Guns for everyone….

Give your money BACK to your boss…

Gays are denied their civil rights….

War….Not Peace….

More guns and tanks….

Get rid of social safety net programs…

Tell OTHER countries…They are on their own…

Tell American exporters….You can only sell in this country….

Threaten to take away a healthcare program that has enrolled almost 10% of Americans who had NO healthcare except the emergency room…

Added to all this is the idea that it’s all right to put people (guys) into office that lie, cheat and steal from those less fortunate…..

All that excitement about Barack Obama being the first black/mixed race President and a Democrat has made the Republicans hard pressed to ‘take back’ a country that IS  into second decade of the 21st Century….

In order for the above to be stopped?

Democrats and some Republicans are gonna have to NOT accept resignation and rise up and VOTE….In local , state and Congressional election next November and in 2020….

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They could get some help from the Robert Mueller final throw-down which will show a New York Real Estate guy who fell into the Presidency of the United State ill equipped to handle it and has tried to get in bed with a foreign power’s people that have done a masterful job of penetrating a start-up American Presidential admin and  tried to get even with American winning the ‘Cold War’…..

In addition ?

At what point does the fear of replacing an American President over come the fear of leaving the guy in to wreck just about everything he touches as he has with past business dealings?…

Donald J. Trump IS the Grand Ole Party these days…He stole it in broad daylight last year and continues make it follow his outlandish and ill conceived action’s…..

Those actions listed above, and more?

Done by guys who MOST America’s do NOT approve of or Support…

Point to a country looking to go BACKWARDS….

Not to contiune being ‘Great’….

 

image..abcnews.go.com

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Healthcare Insurers will make record profits on Obamacare ….

The argument that the Affordable Healthcare is broken is BULL SHIT…..

The argument about Repealing it?

Ridiculous …..

Strickly POLITICAL….

Insurers have finally figured out how to make money in the Obamacare markets: Charge more.

After taking a beating for three years, health plans jacked up their rates for 2017, with the average premium on the most popular products rising more than 20 percent. That created sticker shock for many Obamacare customers while putting many insurers on pace to record profits this year for the first time, according to a POLITICO analysis of 31 regional Blue Cross Blue Shield plans, many of which dominate Obamacare markets in their states.

But the turnaround comes just as Republican efforts to dismantle the health care law are creating new threats to the viability of the marketplaces. That leavesthe plans in a bewildering situation, trying to improve their margins while the GOP declares Obamacare a failure and mounts another push to dismantle the system, starting with rolling back the health care law’s individual mandate.

“The political narrative is over a market in crisis, and that’s just not how the market actually looks right now,” said Larry Levitt, senior vice president for special initiatives at the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan research group. “At this moment, the individual insurance market looks quite stable and most insurers have achieved profitability.”

The POLITICO analysis shows that insurers, on average, spent 78 percent of premium revenues on customers’ medical claims through the first nine months of this year….

More….

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Mueller and Congress WILL probaly end up talking to Steve Bannon……

The Mueller people are interviewing most of the Trump campaign and White House staff, so has the Congressional committee’s….

It is a given that Steve Bannon will be called in for some questioning….

The guy says he doesn’t have a lawyer, eh?

He better have a good memory…

President Donald Trump’s former White House chief strategist and campaign chief executive played critical roles in episodes that have become central to Mueller’s probe as well as to multiple Hill investigations.

Bannon was a key bystander when Trump decided to fire national security adviser Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty earlier this month to lying to federal investigators about his contacts with foreign officials. He was among those Trump consulted before firing FBI Director James Comey, whose dismissal prompted Mueller’s appointment — a decision Bannon subsequently described to “60 Minutes” as the biggest mistake “in modern political history.”

And during the campaign, Bannon was the one who offered the introduction to data-mining firm Cambridge Analytica, whose CEO has since acknowledged trying to coordinate with WikiLeaks on the release of emails from Hillary Clinton’s time as secretary of state.

Yet Bannon hasn’t faced anywhere near the degree of public scrutiny in connection to the probe as others in Trump’s inner circle, including son-in-law and White House adviser Jared Kushner — who was recently interviewed by Mueller’s team — or Donald Trump Jr., who was interviewed on Capitol Hill last week about his own Russian connections.

People close to Bannon, who left the White House in August and returned to his former perch as head of Breitbart News, say he’s told them he doesn’t have a lawyer and isn’t worried about potential exposure. But others say it’s inevitable he’ll be called in as a witness in the ongoing investigations. He has not been publicly accused of any wrongdoing or named as a target of the investigations….

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Breaking…Fox poll shows Democrat Doug Jones with a TEN POINT lead over Republican Roy Moore in Alabama Senate Race…

Oh Snap!….

This poll was done from Dec 7th to the 10th….

It’s results point to observations reported over the last week by several pundit’s that question the polling samples that have been done by smaller outfits….

In addition?

It has become apparent that Jones is gaining support among black and young white higher educated voters thru out the state….

The Democratic vote is united…The Republican vote seems split….

Roy Moore has NOT been out campaigning and adding Donald Trump to the equation maybe told after the vote as a mistake…

The actual vote tomorrow is anyone’s guess….But Democrats have to be in a better mood going into the vote….

Now we’ll see who actually votes…

Democrat Doug Jones holds a 10-point lead over Republican Roy Moore among likely voters in deep red Alabama.

Greater party loyalty plus higher interest in the election among Democrats combined with more enthusiasm among Jones supporters gives him the advantage in the race to fill the U.S. senate seat previously held by U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

That’s according to a Fox News Poll of Alabama voters conducted Thursday through Sunday using traditional polling techniques, including a list-based probability sample with both landlines and cellphones.

Jones receives 50 percent to Moore’s 40 percent, with 1-in-10 undecided (8 percent) or supporting another candidate (2 percent) — which could make a difference Tuesday.  That’s even truer with such an unconventional election with unconventional candidates.

poll 1

This race’s uniqueness is significant.  It is impossible to know who will show up to vote in a special election to fill a seat in the middle of a term in an off-year.  And it’s December, a time when people expect to be going to the shopping mall, not the voting booth.

On top of that, accusations of sexual misconduct against Moore emerged November 9.  That’s just a month before the December 12 election.  Since then, he has repeatedly denied the allegations, and after the GOP initially pulled its support, the party ultimately backed Moore.

By a 6-point margin, Alabama voters believe the allegations against Moore are true (39-33 percent).  They were more evenly divided last month, believing the accusations by just 1 point (38-37 percent).  About one quarter, 27 percent, feel it is too soon to say or have no opinion.

Among Republicans, 13 percent believe the accusations are true, 60 percent say they aren’t, and 26 percent are unsure.  In November, it was 13-62 percent (26 percent unsure)….

More….

Note….

This IS a Fox News poll folks….(The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).)

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Donald Trump’s sexual misconduct acusser’s to hold presser and demand Congressional probe…

Following in the footsteps of the resignations of 3 US Congressmen so far….

Several of the woman who have accused Donald Trump of sexual misconduct are demanding a public review of his behavior….

While this topic was front and center during last years Presidential campaign?…It has gone away…A full blown media event is sure to put this back on page 1 of media outlets….

via twitter…

NEW: Women who have publicly accused President Trump of sexual harassment and assault will speak at a news conference, hosted by , Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET. The women are calling for an investigation by Congress of sexual misconduct by the president.

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Small pipe bomb goes of by Port Auth Bus Term in NYC…Minor injuries…Suspect caught ..

A small pipe bomb went off near the Port Authority Bus Terminal on Monday, and the suspect was immediately taken into custody, police sources said.

The blast happened in an underground subway passage just 200 feet from the terminal at West 42nd St. and Eighth Ave., the sources said.

Port Authority cops immediately arrested the suspect, who was injured in the explosion. He was taken to Bellevue Hospital and is expected to survive, sources said.

Four people in total were wounded at the scene, the FDNY confirmed, all of whom have non-life-threatening injuries. …

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‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ premiere kicks off with cheers…

The latest movie about the ‘Force’ and Luke Skywalker appears to be every much of a hit the other movies in the series has been…

Image result for star wars the last jedi

It’s World  Premier was in Hollywood on Dec. 9 th before a crowd of 2,200 in Hollywood …The release date for the movie is Friday Dec. 15…..

Luke Skywalker is back to Star Wars in triumphant style.

Mark Hamill was the featured attraction at the world premiere for Star Wars: The Last Jedi Saturday night, the last star to be introduced to the stage of the Shrine Auditorium by writer-director Rian Johnson.

Also from the premiere: ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’: Raves dominate in first Twitter reactions

Hamill hammed with his entrance, popping his collar in front of the wildly cheering crowd of 2,200, before swanning to his spot onstage with fellow actors Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, Oscar Isaac, Benicio del Toro and John Boyega.

More: Love for Leia (and Carrie Fisher) could push ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ to a $200M opening

This was even before the theater lights dropped to see Hamill performing Luke Skywalker’s dramatic and full return to the beloved sci-fi franchise. Hamill briefly appeared at the end of 2015’s The Force Awakens.

Formal reviews for The Last Jedi have been embargoed before the Dec.15 opening. But the film received wild applause and exclamation from audience members in key moments, including the first time the robed Skywalker appeared onscreen…..

More…

top image….flickering myth

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Alabama works to deny black residents the chance to vote….

Talking Points Memo shines the light on how the state seems to going out of its way make voting availabe to it’s balck and poor white residents….

Those who though America would change after 8 years of a mixed race President in the White House?

You ARE wrong….

What happens when a state with a tough voter ID law suddenly makes it much harder for minorities to get driver’s licenses? We are about to find out in Alabama.

Facing a budget crisis, Alabama has shuttered 31 driver’s license offices, many of them in counties with a high proportion of black residents. Coming after the state recently put into effect a tougher voter ID law, the closures will cut off access — particularly for minorities — to one of the few types of IDs accepted.

According to a tally by AL.com columnist John Archibald, eight of the 10 Alabama counties with the highest percentage of non-white registered voters saw their driver’s license offices closed.

“Every single county in which blacks make up more than 75 percent of registered voters will see their driver license office closed. Every one,” Archibald wrote.

Archibald also noted that many of the counties where offices were closed also leaned Democrat….

More….

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More Roy Moore crazy shit…Get rid of some the amendments of the Constitution…..

The list of off the wall stuff this guy has throw out in public goes on and on…..

He seems like he’s a Univrsee BEYOND Trump’s….

Image result for Roy Moore

Alabama Republican Senate nominee Roy Moore appeared on a conspiracy-driven radio show twice in 2011, where he told the hosts in an interview that getting rid of constitutional amendments after the Tenth Amendment would ‘eliminate many problems’ in the way the US government is structured.

Alabama’s special election for Senate, in which Moore is facing Democrat Doug Jones, will be held Tuesday. Moore’s controversial views on a variety of subjects — including homosexuality, Islam, and evolution — have come into sharper focus in the final days of the campaign, even as Moore has had to deal with multiple accusations from women who say that he sexually assaulted or pursued relationships with them as teenagers when he was in his 30s. Moore has denied all allegations.
Moore also faced criticism for comments he made in September at a campaign rally. According to the Los Angeles Times,  when asked by a black member of the audience when he thought the last time America was great, Moore answered, “I think it was great at the time when families were united — even though we had slavery — they cared for one another. Our families were strong, our country had a direction.”
image…washingtonpost.com
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The Alabama that Roy Moore lives in….

The New York Times takes a look at things in Alabama today….

A lot of us have NO idea how the place is and why someone like Roy Moore could ganner votes…

Read the linked piece….

Makes ya scratch your head that the piece is about an American state…

The state is so often stellar in football, residents say ruefully, and not much else, a consequence of generations of bitter fights, political turbulence and eternal divides over race and class.

About 17 percent of Alabamians live in poverty — the fifth-highest rate in the country — and the state’s violence-wracked prisons are jammed to 159 percent of their intended capacity. With budget troubles a chronic fact of life, spending on Medicaid, which has not been expanded, lags. Standardized test scores are among the nation’s lowest. Heart disease and diabetes are endemic.

Last year, Marion, a rural city in central Alabama, suffered a tuberculosis outbreak so severe that its incidence rate was worse than that of many developing countries.

The infant mortality rate for 2016 rose to 9.1 deaths per 1,000 live births, the highest rate the state has seen since 2008. (The national rate was 5.9 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2015, the most recent year for which federal data is available.) The mortality rate was more than twice as high for black infants as white ones, and in some parts of the state, like Perry or Pickens Counties, the rate was 25.6 and 30.3.

“I think we really don’t know why it’s going up,” said Grace Thomas, the assistant state health officer for family health services with the state’s Department of Public Health, who called the rates a “key indicator of a health care system’s effectiveness” and said black, Hispanic and poor women were less likely to get the care they need.

Paris Daves, 24, said it took her several months after she found out she was pregnant last year to get on Medicaid, although she has since drawn support from an organization called Gift of Life, which works to prevent infant mortality in Montgomery. But as a young, single parent, there are other problems, too, like unreliable public transportation and low wages.

“Minimum wage here is $7.25,” said Ms. Daves, who earns a dollar more than that as a shift manager at McDonald’s. “That’s not enough to pay my rent or take care of my son.”

In Haleyville, northwest of Birmingham, the coming shutdown of the hospital looms over the city where, in 1968, the country’s first 911 call was made.

But you can pick anyplace in Alabama and find issues that feel somewhere between daunting and suffocating. In the Black Belt, named for its rich topsoil, but now a region of widespread rural poverty, people still wonder whether once-plentiful jobs will ever come back….

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Roy Moore seems toi have stopped campaigning in his Alabama race?

The Alabama Republican has been absent from dealing with voters since Thursday?

Huh?

Roy Moore is nowhere to be found.

The embattled GOP nominee in the Alabama Senate race has not made a public appearance since Tuesday, though Moore did sit down for an interview on a local Alabama political program. Meanwhile, his opponent, Democrat Doug Jones, has traveled to multiple parts of the state in the weekend leading up to the Dec. 12 special election….

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Sen Gillibrand leads the march against abusive men…Is the ‘Just Believe’ movement right?….

Democratic NY Senator  Kristen Gillibrand has been crusading against sexual abuse in the military first, and now against the issue in Congress…She is the media darling right now…

But this week she moved onto a slippery slope…

She was th spear point for the Franken step down ….

And she has give the answer THAT appears  to knock Democratic icon Bill Clinton…..She has NOT made some people happy….Her efforts are NOT  being seen as helpful for a Democratic party that  is trying to claw back a majority next year…

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Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has put herself in the spotlight by calling on Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) to step down and saying President Clinton should have resigned during the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

Taking on major figures in her own party has bolstered the New York Democrat’s standing as a voice for change in the nation’s reckoning over sexual harassment and misconduct, which is reshaping society.

But it has also won her criticism.

Supporters of Clinton blasted Gillibrand as disloyal for her statements about Clinton, with some noting how the Clintons supported her over the years.

Those sympathetic to Franken suggested it was craven for her to be the first out with a statement Wednesday calling for him to resign, and suggested she was both seeking attention and building her brand on a fallen progressive hero….

More…

In addition?

There is the beginnings of a pushback that WILL form against the sexual abuse house cleaning push. that subjects men to being guilty by mere mentions in public…’just believe’?

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In this national “just believe” the accuser moment, it’s important to remember that part of the power of the recent accusations against movie producer Harvey Weinstein and so many others is that they are backed up by meticulous reporting that has provided contemporaneous corroboration and other evidence. Presented with these revelations, the accused themselves in many cases have provided confirmation by acknowledging at least some of their violations. A failed attempt by the right-wing group Project Veritas to persuade the Washington Post to publish the account of a fake accuser of U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore demonstrated the power of verifying before believing…

In the past few weeks, a number of accused men have disappeared Soviet-style from public life, with the work of some—Louis C.K. and Garrison Keillor, for example—withdrawn from distribution. There has been discussion about whether everyone accused deserves a professional death penalty, or whether there should be a scale of punishment. After all, the violations run the gamut from multiple allegations of rape to unwanted touching. But in a statement on Facebook calling for Franken’s resignation, New York Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand came out against making such distinctions. “While it’s true that his behavior is not the same as the criminal conduct alleged against [Alabama Senate candidate] Roy Moore, or Harvey Weinstein, or President Trump, it is still unquestionably wrong,” she wrote. “We should not have to be explaining the gradations between sexual assault, harassment and unwelcome groping.”…

This amazing moment has a chance to be truly transformative. But it could also go off track if all accusations are taken on faith, if due process is seen as an impediment rather than a requirement and an underpinning of justice, and if men and women grow wary of each other in the workplace….

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top image…cnn.com

bottom image…time.com

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Republican Senator Collins got ‘rolled’….

I KNEW this was coming…..

Collins should have also….

House Republicans are STILL pleding to REPEAL the Affordabale Healthcare Law….Something Collins wants to help ….

The tax bill could hang on her vote and she’s gonna look pretty stupid if she goes along with NOT getting what she bargined for….

Tax bill chances , for me?…..remains LESS than 50%

Image result for sen collins

The three biggest stories in Washington — a broad overhaul of the U.S. tax structure, a health-care makeover and a spending bill that would avert a government shutdown — all depend, more or less, on one moderate Republican senator who says she’s got a deal that could deliver them all.

The only trouble is, Senator Susan Collins’s deal could unravel fast, putting the Maine lawmaker and her party in a tight spot as GOP leaders seek a major policy win in 2017.

Collins joined 50 of her GOP Senate colleagues Saturday in voting for tax legislation — but only after securing what she’s called a promise that Congress would pass two other bills before year’s end. Both measures are aimed at shoring up insurance marketplaces that experts say would be ravaged by one part of the Senate tax bill: a repeal of the “individual mandate” imposed by the 2010 Obamacare law.

But Collins’s promise came from Senate Majority Mitch McConnell — who can’t always deliver a vote in his own chamber, let alone the one across the capitol. It’s by no means clear that either of the health care bills Collins bargained for will get anywhere in the House, where conservatives regard at least one of the measures with disdain.

“I wasn’t part of those conversations,” House Speaker Paul Ryan told reporters Thursday, when asked about Collins’s bargain with McConnell…..

More….

Note….

Sen Jeff Flake’s DACA promise will rest on the Democarts NOT him….

Senator’s Collins, Flake and Crker could doom the tax cut bill…

Update…

Hmmmmm?

Do they have the votes in the Senate?

The House will not vote next week on a final agreement to rewrite the tax code, though House and Senate negotiators are expected to work through the weekend.

“It will not come up next week, but if it could, I would bring it up as soon as we come out of conference, because I do believe the American people are waiting for a Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy told colleagues late Thursday in remarks on the House floor….

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image….washingtonexaminer.com

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Alabama Republicans…Stay home if ya want to…don’t vote for Roy Moore or Doug Jones…Red State

…by Carl Arbogast @ Red State…

Whatever the case may be, no reason exists to vote for Doug Jones. The notion that staying home “is not good enough” comes only from Democrats who want to shame you into voting for their guy. But why on earth would people vote for the person who upholds ideals and supports policies that are a 180-degree departure from their own? That’s crazy talk.

Doug Jones is a liberal. And yes, a Democrat winning in Alabama would be a significant setback for the GOP in advancing a legislative agenda in Congress.

Well, that’s too bad. 

Too many Republicans have made their bed, and now they have to lie in it. Of course, Moore could still win which means Republicans would have the votes they need but would also have to answer for every goofball thing Moore ever said and will have to answer questions regarding the accusations over Moore’s dark past.

That said, don’t allow yourself to be bullied into a voting for a liberal Democrat. It’s not necessary. Stay home if you have to. But don’t sacrifice your ideals for political expediency…..

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Barack Obama warns of Nazism in a “complacent” democracy….

Any wonder were he was pointing to

Former President Obama warns what happens when democracies become “complacent” in a speech to the Economic Club of Chicago on Tuesday. Obama made a comparison to the rise of Nazi Germany if you do not “tend to [the] garden of democracy.

“I do think because we’ve been so wealthy and so successful that we get complacent and assume that thing continues the way they have been, just automatically. And they don’t. You have to tend to this garden of democracy, otherwise things can fall apart fairly quickly. And we’ve seen societies where that happens,” the former president said in Q&A remarks that were captured on video and posted on Facebook.

He then warned that led to the deaths of 60 million people.

“Now, presumably, there was a ballroom here in Vienna in the late 1920s or ’30s that looked and seemed as if it, filled with the music and art and literature that was emerging, would continue into perpetuity. And then 60 million people died. An entire world was plunged into chaos. So you got to pay attention and vote,” Obama said….

More….

Video Link….

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Belmont Park LI development decsision down to two sports teams…

At this time the clubs having bids considered by the New York State Empire Development Corp……

New York Islanders

New York City FC soccer club

It is believed that the wining bidder will build a sports stadium, hotel and maybe some retail…..

There have local two local public meetings about the decision, which will be made by the state board whose head is picked by New York State Governor Cuomo…

image2

They would like to buld a 20,000 seat NHL regulation venue…..They are leaving the Broolyn Barcley’s  Center after not being happy with set up and conditions  there….

Belmont is located in Nassau County where a good amount of their fan base is located….The site has train access and several major highway ‘s running by it…

National Hocket League season is 82 games from October thru April and a bit beyond for champship games….

From  the end of the season to that fall there venue will need to attract revenue generating events to pay its bills….In addition, the  car traffic and up to 20, 000 [eople in one place will require addtional support from the Nassc County Police (Or NY State Police), New York City Police (Traffic / The location is a few feet from  the Queens NYC line) as well as the Elmont Fire Department, which a volunteer operation….

One assumes that the state will consider a way to distrubute ‘fee’s in lieu  of taxes’ to the country and loacl Fire Departements since the property belongs to New York State NOT Nassau County which must supply the above listed support…

image…smirfittsspeech.wordpress.com

 

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Air Force will downsize its Compass Call a/c from C-130 to G-550’s

The Gulfstream 550 type jamming aircraft is already inn service for other countries…With mintairation and better software the footprint of the mission air craft is smaller and less costly in people and hardware…

Image result for gulfstream g550 Early warning a/c

After much back-and-forth on which defense company could make the Air Force‘s next jamming plane, the service — as predicted — has decided to let L3 Technologies choose the plane.

“The Air Force awarded a contract to L3 for the Compass Call re-host program,” Air Force spokeswoman Ann Stefanek said Thursday.

“After their analysis and sharing that with the program office, L3 has decided to use the Gulfstream 550 Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft as the new platform,” Stefanek said in a statement. “This new Compass Call platform is being referred to as EC-X,” she said.

Stefanek said there is no cost value associated at this time because the contract award is an undefinitized contract action. The UCA is a type of contract in which bottom-line terms or prices have not been agreed upon before performance is begun.

The EC-X will replace the Air Force’s aging fleet of EC-130Hs, modified C-130s made by Lockheed Martin Corp. that carry electronic jamming equipment designed to thwart an adversary’s command-and-control communications. Lockheed, however, only makes the airframes while L-3 Communications, now L3 Technologies, is the sole aircraft integration and depot maintenance contractor, while BAE Systems secures the mission equipment.

The latest decision follows months of turbulence between defense companies vying to build the next aircraft….

More….

Note….

The Navy is also switching to the G-550 for its NP-3DBill Board’ upgrade and the same air frame is being looked at to replace the old B-707 US Air Force JSTAR ground combat surviance  a/c….

image….Themilitaryandasianregion-wordpress.com

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Doug Jones Is Just A Normal Polling Error Away From A Win In Alabama

…from FiveThirtyEight….whuich is hedging their bets,,,,

Things seem to be going Roy Moore’s way. President Trump endorsed him. The Republican National Committee is back to supporting him. And Moore, who has been accused of sexual contact with women when they were underaged, has led by an average of 3 percentage points in polls1 taken within 21 days of the Dec. 12 special Senate election in Alabama. The betting markets give Moore about an 80 percent chance of victory — roughly the same chance they gave Hillary Clinton just before the 2016 presidential election.

Before Election Day last year, we advised caution, however — polls aren’t perfect at even the best of times, Trump had an advantage in the Electoral College, and there were a lot of undecided voters. So what’s our advice heading into the Alabama election? Well, it’s the same — be cautious — but for slightly different reasons.

A look at all U.S. Senate election polls since 19982 shows that their average error — how far off the polls were from the actual election result — is more than a percentage point higher than the average error in presidential polling. Also, Alabama polls have been volatile, this is an off-cycle special election with difficult-to-predict turnout, and there haven’t been many top-quality pollsters surveying the Alabama race. So even though Moore is a favorite, Democrat Doug Jones is just a normal polling error away from winning. (Or, by the same token, Moore could win comfortably.)….

The bottom line is that with less than a week to go in the campaign, Moore seems to have the edge — but he’s far from a sure thing….

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