Today is the New Hampshire Presidential Primary…Open Thread…

It’s here…..

The last of the little primary contests….

Today is an important day for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders….

Trump has been leading in the polls , but has NOT won yet….

While humble after his first lost?

He has gone back to his road show….

Sanders is fighting to be taken seriously….A WIN for him is a must….

If he loses?

He may not win a single state….

For the rest of the Republican field?

There is a jocking for third….

And ya never know ?….Maybe for SECOND?

We’ll be here tonight watching the results come in…

Oh, yea….

Voters in New Hampshire are known to NOT vote the way the polls seem to indicate they will….

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Open Thread for Feb. 7, 2016…The Media Rock Stars….The Donald and Bernie…

We have two days before the New Hampshire Primary….

The polls point Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump winning ….

We don’t actually by how much and they COULD actually lose by small margins given that we are talking about quirky New Hampshire and seeing last weeks complete pollster breakdown…

But turning from the voting?

Image result for trump/sanders

We have two media stars….

Bernie Sanders is the darling of young Democratic voters…

The rumpled , distanced and angry 74 year old independent Senator from Vermont seems to garner the same response from his crowds and supports as the slick businessman /entertainer independent turn political Donald Trump….

Trump has actually ramped down his show infant of the camera’s while Sanders has ramped up his…

I may be one of the only Dogs out there that feels that both will be sitting on the sidelines come this falls election, but that’s MY feeling…

Both elicit salivating from the media types….Who readily admit on their twitter feed hunger when their guy ISN’T the top story for a few hours…

Each has their sunshine measure by polls AND how many times they are mentioned on social media…

Each gets MORE free media from the media pack that what they spend for….

But each, as mentioned , actually does NOT get as much vote support from those who are reliable voters…

We all are along for the ride…

This Tuesday I suspect will be a good day for the media stars….

But the ex-Sec of State and Florida Senator are gonna be looking past Tuesday to March 1st, when the cards start to work against the media darlings and things are in the voters hands…

Not the media….

image…burlingtonfreepress.com

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New Hampshire Presidential Primary….

For only the second time, voters will be going to the polls on Tuesday, February 9, this time in New Hampshire, to help choose a nominee and further winnow down the fields of Presidential contenders.

Image result for trump/rubio

image- americanews.com

​The state of the Republican race has dramatically changed since the Iowa Caucuses, which saw Texas Senator Ted Cruz emerging victorious, with initial-frontrunner and billionaire real estate developer Donald Trump very nearly slipping to third place behind Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who has seen his fortunes soar in the days since the Caucus vote. After months of gaudy leads in the national and state polling averages, Trump has seen a noticeable drop in his support. Within a few days, it appeared as though Rubio was on the rise and Trump was on the fading away. Not so today. On Saturday night, in ABC News’ televised GOP debate, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, doing Trump’s bidding, got into a verbal joust and took a chunk out of Rubio, exposing him as stiff, robotic, and lacking in any specificity to speak of. Rubio’s spiking poll numbers took on a sudden and simple flatlining, and it is entirely possible that he falls out of the top tier all together in tonight’s voting. In another surprise, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, the victor in Iowa(that is, if you don’t believe Trump’s hot air), is showing up in polls as being the solid second choice of most NH voters. For the establishment lane, while Christie and former Florida Governor and noted political scion Jeb Bush have seen no upticks in support, Ohio Governor John Kasich has enjoyed several days awash in newfangled good fortunes. In fact, it is entirely possible he pulls out an outright win in New Hampshire tonight. This writer, however, is still not convinced anything will come of that. However, like in Iowa, expect a major discrepancy between telephone surveys and the real deal that’s underway. For now…

Prediction: Trump narrowly wins with 28% to 25% for Kasich, 23% for Cruz, and 15% for Rubio. All the others split the remaining 9%. Christie and Carly Fiorina drop out after dismal showings.

Image result for sanders/clinton

image – chicagotribune.com

This state has been more or less very consistent over the past several months, with polls showing this being Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ best chance for a Primary win. While back in December there was some thought that Hillary Clinton had regained her footing enough to put this Primary and, in essence, the nomination fight away, all of this has been undone in the wake of the re-litigation of sexual abuse allegations against her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and how she blackmailed anyone who tried coming forward about this. All of her issues are compounded by her “winning” the Iowa Caucuses by only 0.2% of the vote(it is entirely possible that they stole it from Sanders, using coins with the same face on either side to determine the victor of the 6 coin flips), a weak showing for a so-called “frontrunner” candidate by any metric.All polls taken in the past few weeks have shown Clinton trailing Sanders by upwards of 31 points in NH. Additionally, national polls have shown her once-large lead over Sanders has been greatly diminished to a lead of anywhere between 2% and 7%. Her national leads are likely to be either narrowed further or lost completely in the crazy days after the NH Primaries. Another cause for concern for the Clinton camp is that prominent black leaders and organizations are beginning to line up for Bernie Sanders, which may weaken her Southern firewall considerably.

Prediction: Sanders wins 63-37 over Clinton and sweeps all of the state’s delegates.

No matter who wins tonight, it all goes on to South Carolina and a possibly protracted nomination fight on both sides…..

SE….

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Final Obama Budget…It’s $4 Trillion…It would raise taxes for the Rich and Wall Street..

Forget the last part…

THAT ain’t gonna happen….

Not with the Republicans in the majority in Congress and Democrats trying get control in Senate…

Tax increases ARE DOA…

The Presidents budget request like all of them is a jump off point in negotiations with Congress….

The budget looks to increase social programs and fund a robust Defense Department…

Bernie Sanders supporters will like the taxing part, but Obama knows that was just perception politics…

BTW?

Donald Trump has called for increased taxes for the rich also in the past…But he may not choose to remember that…

WASHINGTON — President Obama on Tuesday sent his final annual budget proposal to a hostile Republican-led Congress, seeking $19 billion for a broad new cybersecurity initiative and rejecting the lame-duck label as he declared that his plan “is about looking forward.”

The budget for fiscal year 2017, which starts Oct. 1, would top $4 trillion, although only about one-quarter of that is the so-called discretionary spending for domestic and military programs that the president and Congress dicker over each year. The rest is for mandatory spending, chiefly interest on the federal debt and the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits that are expanding as the population ages.

The deficit would increase in this fiscal year to $616 billion from $503 billion last year, the budget projects, in part because of myriad tax cuts that Mr. Obama and Congress agreed in December to make permanent. That would make this year’s shortfall equal to 3.3 percent of the economy’s output, or gross domestic product, up from 2.5 percent. That exceeds the 3 percent threshold that economists consider sustainable for a growing economy.

In fiscal 2017 — which begins in October and is covered by Mr. Obama’s spending and tax proposals, including a $10-a-barrel fee on oil — the deficit would dip again for a couple years but then begin increasing again, mainly because of the costs for aging Americans’ retirement and health care. But the administration says annual deficits would remain below 3 percent of the gross domestic product through the decade to 2026.

While Mr. Obama has achieved little to restrain the growth of the entitlement programs that many consider unsustainable, deficits would not return to levels exceeding $1 trillion, and nearly 10 percent of gross domestic product, like the shortfall he inherited in 2009 in the depth of recession, his budget projects.

More….

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FiveThirtyEight on the Trump ceiling…Even in the South….

Nate Silver’s place point to the polling summary that Trump seems to NOT be able to get above 30% of the vote , even in the South a place where he SHOULD do VERY well due to number of while non-educated , moderate voters….

But the 1/3 of the GOP total leaves 2/3 NOT in his camp….

….Trump still has a long-term problem: Our forecast projects him to receive a little less than 30 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. That might be enough to win — but mostly because the field is so big and the non-Trump vote so divided. So far at least, Trump has had a ceiling on his support. And there are signs of this ceiling in upcoming primaries in the South, which was supposed to be one of his strongest regions.

Trump has historically done well in Southern polls. The region has a lot of non-college educated, moderate white voters — a demographic group that is right in Trump’s wheelhouse. These voters used to be Democrats but over the past couple of decades have identified more and more as Republicans. They’re receptive to Trump’s populist pitch.

But four Southern-state polls that were taken mostly or completely after Trump’s second-place finish in last week’s Iowa caucuses show him barely leading or behind. (Weirdly, since Iowa, no one has conducted a poll of South Carolina, the next GOP contest after New Hampshire.)….

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The Post Office made a profit over the Holidays…

After stories of loses over and over ……

The US Mail does Good...

The U.S. Postal Service swung to a profit for the holiday quarter, helped by strong demand for package delivery, a big surcharge and continued favorable interest rate changes on workers’ compensation.

The agency, which has been hit by losses for several years, has been pushing increasingly into shipping as its traditional businesses—first-class and standard mail—continue to decline.

For the three-month period ended Dec. 31, the agency said shipping and package revenue rose nearly 14% and was particularly strong during the holiday season. Package volume growth of 16% met expectations.

Postmaster General and Chief Executive Officer Megan J. Brennan warned that the Postal Service’s financial condition remains “serious but solvable through the enactment of prudent legislative reform.”…

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Trump supporter call Cruz a “pussy”…Trump makes sure Everyone hears that…

Only Donald Trump can get away with this….

And the media LOVES it!….

While they caution that Trump is crass….

His rants generate media time….

The Trump show is ALIVE and WELL….

(The comment was yelled by a woman…)

Trump was touting his hardline stance against terrorists from the Middle East when he mentioned Cruz’s response during the debate Saturday on the use of waterboarding.

“Honestly I thought he’d say, ‘absolutely’ – and he didn’t,” Trump said, suggesting that Cruz was concerned about how some might take his answer on the subject.

“She just said a terrible thing,” Trump said, stopping his own remarks at the arena in Manchester and pointing out a woman in the audience, beckoning her to raise her voice.

“You know what she said? Shout it out, ’cause I don’t want to,” Trump continued. “OK, you’re not allowed to say – and I never expect to hear that from you again – she said … he’s a pussy.”

“That’s terrible, terrible,” Trump said as the audience erupted into a mix of laughs and cheers and he threw his hands into the air and moved away from the microphone…..

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Absolute LAST polls for New Hampshire….

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

ARG

Trump 33, Rubio 14, Kasich 17, Cruz 10, Bush 9, Christie 8, Fiorina 3, Carson 1 Trump +16

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary

ARG

Sanders 53, Clinton 44 Sanders +9

From RealClear Politics….

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Final Before New Hampshire Presidential Primary Polls…

If the polls have it right?

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders ARE gonna have a good day in New Hampshire…..

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

Emerson

Trump 31, Rubio 12, Kasich 13, Cruz 11, Bush 16, Christie 6, Fiorina 7, Carson 3 Trump +15

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary

Emerson

Sanders 54, Clinton 42 Sanders +12

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

UMass/7News (Tracking)

Trump 34, Rubio 13, Kasich 10, Cruz 13, Bush 10, Christie 5, Fiorina 4, Carson 3 Trump +21

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary

UMass/7News (Tracking)

Sanders 56, Clinton 40 Sanders +16

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

CNN/WMUR

Trump 31, Rubio 17, Kasich 10, Cruz 14, Bush 7, Christie 4, Fiorina 5, Carson 3 Trump +14

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary

CNN/WMUR

Sanders 61, Clinton 35 Sanders +26

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

ARG (Tracking)

Trump 30, Rubio 16, Kasich 16, Cruz 10, Bush 9, Christie 6, Fiorina 3, Carson 1 Trump +14

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary

ARG (Tracking)

Sanders 53, Clinton 41 Sanders +12

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

Gravis

Trump 28, Rubio 15, Kasich 17, Cruz 11, Bush 14, Christie 6, Fiorina 5, Carson 3 Trump +11

For links to the polling outfits above…Here

FiveThirtyEight NH Presidential Primary Forecast….

Democratic  Primary

Sanders 99, Clinton 1

Republican Primary

Trump 70, Rubio 10, Kasich 10, Bush 6, Cruz 4, Christie 1

 

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Clinton staff issues again?

Politico is out with a piece on a disconnect between the Clinton’s and their campaign staff…

For those around 8 years ago?

This a repeat…

The Clinton’s know they have the nomination THIS time…

Image result for Hillary clinton/bill

But one supposes that seeing a rival candidate AGAIN being serenaded by worked up crowds and mobbed media hurts…

The Clintons seem to be fighting the media while Trump and Sanders are getting a free ride….

They have to be wondering why can’t they get in on that?

“There’s nobody sitting in the middle of this empowered to create a message and implement it,” said one former Obama 2008 aide. “They are kind of rudderless… occasionally Hillary grabs the rudder, but until recently she was that interested in [working on messaging]… Look, she going to be the nominee, but she’s not going to get any style points and if she isn’t careful she is going to be a wounded nominee. And they better worked this shit out fast because who ever the Republicans pick is going to be 29 times tougher than Bernie.”

More…

image..freebeacon.com

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DailyKos Morning Digest 2/8/16: Arizona Republican Paul Babeu slammed for abuse of students at school he ran

Arizona GOP congressional candidate Paul Babeu

Leading Off:

AZ-01: Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu was already one of the most despicable human beings running for Congress this year, but now he’s cemented his hold on the very bottom spot. Before moving to Arizona, Babeu served as headmaster of the DeSisto School, a private school for troubled youth in his home state of Massachusetts. The school, known for treating students with an “intense discipline regimen,” was a nightmarish disaster that shut down in 2004, after state investigators found massive violations of basic dignity like these:

The probe resulted in a court order to stop specific activities, including punishments that put students in chairs facing corners for hours at a time, withholding food from students and strip-searching. The court also ordered the school to stop group showers and allow students to use the bathroom in private.

That was all well-known when Babeu first sought the Republican nomination in Arizona’s 4th Congressional district back in 2012—a bid that was derailed when a former lover of Babeu’s, an unauthorized immigrant, alleged that Babeu had threatened him with deportation if he did not remain quiet about their relationship. Babeu denied the allegations but acknowledged he was gay and quit the race a few months later.

Babeu’s now waging a second congressional bid (this time in the swingy 1st District), and his DeSisto history has re-emerged thanks to a home video obtained by a local TV station, ABC15, in which Babeu spoke highly of the harsh punishment of the children under his care. ABC15 had investigated Babeu’s tenure back in 2012, after which Babeu denied knowing anything about the school’s abusive practices and had his lawyers send a threatening letter to the station….

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Political Roundup for February 8, 2016…Cruz = Nixon?…RRH Elections

President

Rubio:  After having what can be classified as a rough debate, Senator Marco Rubio (R) came out swinging and had a large event Sunday morning in Londonderry that maxed out the capacity of the venue.  Specifically, Rubio hammered away at President Obama again despite the blustering attack her received for his repetitive critique of President Obama from Governor Chris Christie (R), a on again off again buddy of the President, during the debate on Saturday.

Elites and New Hampshire:  New Hampshire poses another problem for elites within both political parties as voters look poised to hand victories to a old hippie socialist over former Secretary of State and Co-President Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side and to a demagogue liberal posing as a Republican on the Republican side.

Bush: RRH favorite Ross Douthat examines why former Governor Jeb Bush’s (R) failed campaign has all the hallmarks of the undoing of his father, President George H.W. Bush (R) on top of being tied to toxic legacy left by his brother, President George W. Bush (R).

Clinton:  When you think Republicans have lunacy occurring in their ranks, you have to look to see what is going on with the Democrats.  Gloria Steinem and Madeleine Albright have launched vicious attacks against women who are not blindly following former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and voting for her because we need to obtain identity politics goals blindly.  Albright said those women who do not support each other, aka those who are Feeling the Bern, really should burn in a special level of hell for not helping a fellow woman.

Cruz:  The New York Times is several months late in realizing what I have known for awhile:  Senator Ted Cruz (R) is the President Richard Nixon (R) of our time.  In addition, the Times finally realizes what strategy Cruz can use to win and how he has been successful so far.

Trump:  In case you missed it, Donald Trump (himself) upped the ante regarding interrogation of terrorists by promising to not just bring back waterboarding, but to bring forward something a “hell of a lot worse.”  I guess he is off the topic of illegal immigration for once, which might be a good thing.

Music:  At least we can thank Donald Trump for one thing, he has broken the decades long Republican practice of kowtowing to artists who object to Republicans using their music at events.  Trump continues to blare Adele even after she said to stop….

More….

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The Sanders campaign gets caught again using dirty tricks…

Bernie Sanders has had to apoligize for the actions of his supporters in the field recently….(Nevada ...Data breach)

Bill Clinton has complaint ed out loud about moisleading things thrown at his wife by Sanders supporters…

We now have another incident where things are not on the up and up….

Bernie Sanders’ campaign has acknowledged the “unintentional improper use” of American Legion’s emblem on campaign materials and is working to halt such use, according to documents obtained by POLITICO on Monday.

The Sanders campaign has come under fire in recent weeks for using the veterans organization’s logo on fliers. “We sincerely appreciate the notification of the unintentional improper use by Sanders of the emblem of The American Legion and the helpful information pertaining to your concerns,” the Seattle-based firm Garvey Schubert Barer said in a statement representing the campaign. “Sanders takes intellectual property matters very seriously and does its best to respectfully and appropriately acknowledge and to not infringe the intellectual property rights of others.”

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Donald Trump will forsake the ‘ground game’…it’s about HIM…

Folks?

Itr’s ALWAYS been about HIM throughout his life….

It ain’t gonna stop now….

He lost because he neglected to work things the tried a true way for Republicans…Trump is just into spending money for ads and people on the ground…He is true at heart a busnessman and he HAS been VERY carful NOT to spend a LOT of money so far in his campaign for the nomination…

And…

He’s ahead in the polls in New Hampshire…

The guy who was closing on him there just imploded in the latest debate…and there are NO clear choices against him in a large but unremarkanble field….Add to that the fact that Grand Ole Party doesn’t seem to want to make up its mind on who they want ?

And maybe Donald Trump can go light and make things Show Time....

POLITICO reported last week that the candidate was refusing to revamp his ground game after a second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, a race where led most of the way in the polls. After that loss, Trump claimed he “wasn’t even familiar” with the term.

Less than 24 hours before the first primary ballots are cast in New Hampshire, Trump appears to have shifted very little in his thinking, adding that “the most important thing is the person doing the talking and the message.”

“I think it’s more important than people knocking on doors,” he said…

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In New Hampshire…Young women are mostly for Bernie….

How is that a 74 year old male is getting more support than a 68 year old grandmother that lived in the White House?

Simple….

Time….

Hillary Clinton IS a TRUE progressive simply by being where she is….

That America could be tyhe process of electing  its first woman President IS historic….

But for young women…..

Especially young white females in New Hampshire THAT isn’t much of big deal….

Both of the US Senators from the state ARE women….

One of the two US House Representives is a women…

So the Clinton name and gender isn’t that much of big deal….

Also young women HAVE not gone thru the trials and tribulations that older women have and have little thought about the significagance of a Hillary win in the LONG run….

The young women in New hamopshire will vote for who THEY ID with….And that seems to be the guy promising them things he can’t dleieve…But can make them feel good….

Unlike in Iowa, where Clinton won women by 11 percentage points, she is struggling here. A new CNN-WMUR survey here showed Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont beating her among women by eight points.

One reason Clinton is doing poorly with women in New Hampshire, more so than in Iowa, is that people here are accustomed to women holding public office at every level.

“We’ve elected the good, the bad, the ugly of women,” Arnesen said. “We’ve seen them in every level of leadership. We’ve seen some produce and some disappoint.”

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Bill Clinton gets mean on Bernie Sanders….

Ah, William Jefferson……

Last time it was South Carolina….

This time it’s New Hampshire….

We know you care for wife and want her to win….

But ya gotta NOT let that anger thing get the best of ya….

There have been reports of Sanders supports goig to extreme’s in Nevada to get access to voters and other incidents….

The polls point to Sanders getting a win in New Hampshire , where Hillary Clinton staged a comeback eight years ago against Barack Obama…

(After New Hampshire polls point to clear sailing for the Clinton campaign to the nomination…)

Bill Clinton uncorked an extended attack on Senator Bernie Sanders on Sunday, harshly criticizing Mr. Sanders and his supporters for what he described as inaccurate and “sexist” attacks on Hillary Clinton.

“When you’re making a revolution you can’t be too careful with the facts,” Mr. Clinton said, deriding Mr. Sanders’s oft-mentioned call for a political revolution.

The former president, addressing a few hundred supporters at a junior high school here, portrayed his wife’s opponent for the Democratic nomination as hypocritical, “hermetically sealed” and dishonest.

He even likened an incident last year, in which Sanders staffers obtained access to Clinton campaign voter data, to stealing a car with the keys in the ignition.

Mr. Clinton discussed the race for nearly 50 minutes, and his comments took on a harder edge the longer he spoke. What began as a testimonial to Mrs. Clinton’s leadership and a statesmanlike lecture on her approach to issues evolved into an angrier recitation of grievances against Mr. Sanders and his fervent supporters…..

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The GOPer Presidential nomination race 2/7/16…..

 It’s only fluid in New Hampshire. Cruz is organized and waiting to strike back in South Carolina and the rest of the South, and it depends on if Trump can win in New Hampshire if he advances. Big changes coming now for the next 36 hours – most Independents have not even decided which primary they will vote in, Rubio has gone flat, and Bush seems to have gained new traction. If the State’s independents move to the GOP primary in big numbers, all bets are off.

Marco did himself huge damage yesterday, now everyone knows he cannot think on his feet. He was simply the flavor of the week after Iowa, and it really depends on if he can place in New Hampshire to be a viable candidate going forward (after all he is losing his home state to Trump, and probably Bush now). So, Marcobot can get on his knees and beg to be the Vice Presidential candidate, but the Republicans remember Dan Quayle and are not going to repeat that mistake.

Finally Kasich, the party is in no mood to nominate Democrat-lite after doing so the last two times out. Kasich has to come in second to be viable going forward – but, he could if the hard right gets out voted on Tuesday…..

Keith…..

image…cnbc.com

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