Trump’s base IS shrinking…FiveThirtyEight…

For those who keep says Trump’s base is holding?

Read the below….

(Republicans should be worried if this holds)

Trump endured a lot of turbulence in the general election but stuck it out to win the Electoral College. The media doesn’t always guess right about which stories will resonate with voters.

But the theory isn’t supported by the evidence. To the contrary, Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an “enthusiasm gap” that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOP’s initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters.

These estimates come from the collection of polls we use for FiveThirtyEight’s approval ratings tracker. Many approval-rating polls give respondents four options: strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove and strongly disapprove. Ordinarily, we only estimate Trump’s overall approval and disapproval. But we went back and collected this more detailed data for all polls for which it was available, and then we reran our approval ratings program to output numbers for all four approval categories instead of the usual two.1 Here are Trump’s strongly approve and somewhat approve ratings from shortly after the start of his term2 through this Tuesday….

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Republicans will ignore Trump’s Budget Plan…

Presidential budget outlines never make thru Congress in one piece , but the throw down that Trump’s won’t is being broadcasted pretty fast…

The kind of cuts Trump has presented simply won’t fly…(Congress went its own way on the 2017 stop-gap budget …)

The media is highlighting those cuts , which combined with the healthcare cuts would put Republicans out of business in Congress in 2018/2020…..

Republican leaders in Congress say they will go their own way on spending and largely ignore the budget President Trump sent to Congress on Tuesday, underlining a divide between the White House and his congressional allies on spending issues.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) downplayed the significance of setting Trump’s budget aside as he told reporters that he will soon begin negotiations with Democrats on the top-line numbers for discretionary spending bills.

Asked about Trump’s budget, McConnell said it’s traditional for Congress to discard much of a president’s blueprint.

“We’ll be taking into account what the president is recommending, but it will not be determinative in every respect,” he said. “I didn’t engage in a ringing endorsement of President [George W.] Bush’s budgets either.”

Others in the Senate GOP conference immediately distanced themselves from Trump’s budget.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said the plan cuts “too close to the bone,” while Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) called it “anti-Nevada,” citing cuts to “important public lands programs.”

Senate Health Committee Chairman Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) has previously warned that not much more can be cut from discretionary spending accounts, which cover popular programs such as medical research at the National Institutes of Health.

Trump’s proposed cuts to Medicaid were making some Republicans nervous….

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Ya Gets’ what ya vote for?…Donald Trump…Open Thread for May 22, 2017….

It’s been 122 days since Donald Trump moved into America’s White House….

I have written President Trump about 3 times here at the PDog in those 122 days….

I have written a LOT about Donald Trump’s bumbling in these past months….

I wrote a LOT about how Trump wasn’t qualified to be President and I think I got THAT Right….

But millions of people out there in America voted FOR Donald J. Trump ….Less than voted for Hillary Clinton by about THREE MILLON….

That’s the  way things work in America…. You CAN win the election if you get votes in certain places even if you get less overall….Trump surprised MOST of us and won the Presidency by less than 100,000 votes out of 140 MILLION or so ….

Turns out the people who voted FOR Trump believed him when he said the whole US Government was ‘rigged’….

Now that Trump IS the Government?

Things haven’t changed from the campaign….

He say’s crazy things that often make NO sense…

Even his party members in the House and Senate decided that THEY would draft an 2017 budget that had few of Trump campaign things in it….

Trump said he’s make sure NO one lost their Healthcare coverage….But that’s isn’t what is coming out of the GOP House with Trump’s Budget wishes….DEEP cuts is what he’s looking for…

Trump ranted about how Hillary Clinton couldn’t be trusted?

But Trump is out there GIVING the countries secrets away to the Russians IN THE White House….

It has got so bad with him countermining his staff in public  (Trump continues to be Trump) that we now wait for the next morning to get Trump’s REAL feelings on anything…

No Wall…

No Muslim Ban….

But we STILL can count on Trump to keep trying to stop HIS government people from investigating his buddies getting cozy with the Russians…Its gotten to Trump telling the Russians he’s trying to bury the probe HIS government is making against His  former and present campaign staff buddies….

For Now?

Trump STILL has a LOT of people happy that he’s in the White House even if he’s hard on offering up cuts for their benefits and hasn’t followed thru on getting them jobs…

Around 40% of Americans, according to polls, actually think Donald Trump is doing a Good Job….But…..

The other 60% of us didn’t vote for the guy ….

We’re NOT Happy….

We didn’t vote for this…..

We’re living with what the ‘other guys’ voted for….

It’s a Democracy , Right?

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The Senate gets nervous about Trump’s possible going back to war in the Middle East…

The Generals running Trump’s Defense side have presented a more muscular America in the Middle East…

That would be a ramping up of American men and women going BACK to Iraq, Afghanistan and other place’s like Africa…

Lawmakers aren’t happy to give a President who doesn’t sweat the details unlimited power in military action and will try to set some limits on his actions until comes to them…(And cost the country Billions)

Such votes tend have HUGE political ramifications for US Senators futures….

As President Donald Trump increasingly flexes the might of the military he now controls, the Senate is reviving efforts to claw back some of that authority from the White House.

Sens. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) are joining forces to reintroduce an Authorization of the Use of Military Force against the Islamic State and other terror groups, aiming to assert more congressional power over the post-9/11 war on terror. Elsewhere in the Capitol, Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) are unveiling legislation Thursday that would halt some of the arms sales to Saudi Arabia in what Trump’s White House has touted as a $110 billion deal.

The bipartisan efforts aren’t new. Flake and Kaine pushed for an AUMF debate two years ago after President Barack Obama sent lawmakers his own draft of military authorization amid the conflict in Syria. And last fall, Paul forced a vote on a separate arms sale to the Saudis in Obama’s final months in office.

But the renewed efforts show real appetite among Democrats and Republicans to rein in some of the new president’s authority on matters of war, which came into focus with Trump’s missile strikes in Syria last month after a chemical weapons attack that killed dozens, including children.

Trump earned broad praise for the strikes from Capitol Hill, but lawmakers also warned against escalating military action abroad without first getting the approval of Congress. The White House has operated under war resolutions passed by Congress in 2001 and 2002….

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A Conservative questions where should he sign up these days?

RedState runs a piece from a Conservative that is questioning  faith in the  Grand Ole Party and explores other political choices….

Some Conservatives ARE NOT going along with Trump’s Republican Party….

Yesterday’s news that a Republican candidate for U.S. Congress from Montana body-slammed a reporter has me pensive once again about where I and other conservatives like me belong.

Greg Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault for lifting The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs by the neck and slamming him to the ground hard enough to break his glasses, all because Jacobs asked for a response from the candidate regarding the CBO’s scoring of the American Health Care Act. Newspapers have pulled endorsements in what will hopefully not be the last of the repercussions for Gianforte’s conduct. (Hat tip to Andrea Ruth for such a fantastic job following this story.)

One congressional candidate, who is already facing swift and harsh backlash — some social media defenders notwithstanding — is only one straw, but it’s just the latest in a series that has made it harder and harder to take the Republican Party seriously anymore. Founder of the Gianforte Family Foundation, whose mission it is to “support the work of faith-based organizations engaged in outreach work, strengthening families, and helping the needy,” Gianforte also has worked with Focus on the Family and donated over a million dollars to a creationist museum. He is a poster child for political engagement by a conservative Christian entrepreneur.

And this becomes his witness.

Liberals punch people and set fire to tires in order not to provide a platform to views they don’t like too, so violence as a solutionto ideological challenges is largely the order of the day in American politics. Without a doubt, it is a pervasive problem across the spectrum.

Yet in spite of the if-it-bleeds-it-leads bias toward reporting the outrageous, I argue that the biggest problem in the American political system is that there is an overwhelming lack of seriousness. It infects the GOP at least as much as any other party, and when it sufficiently debilitates its host, the host sees only escalating absurdity as the way forward.

I remain a registered Republican. Certainly I approve of a greater number of GOP politicians — Ben Sasse, Mike Lee, my own state of Michigan’s lieutenant governor, Brian Calley, for example — than of any other party, but that is mostly due to the fact that the only rival to the Republican Party in size is the Democratic Party. Before I’m a Republican, I’m a conservative, but the movement and its party manifestations over the past five, but especially two, years have threatened to return it to the laughable status it maintained prior to the work Bill Buckley and so many others did to make it intellectually respectable — and elect Ronald Reagan.

Kristen Soltis Anderson at The Washington Examiner recently highlighted the fact that young people are abandoning the GOP ship like it just hit an iceberg. In 18 months, 23 percent of those 18-29 defected from the party and have not returned. As no course correction appears forthcoming, there’s no reason to expect that to change any time soon.

From personal experience, I can attest to the fact that Christians under forty are marching out of the Republican tent, because they are finding it difficult to reconcile their faith with a party whose titular head shows a callous disregard for the very minorities and vulnerable people we conservatives told ourselves our policies best served….

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Manchester bombing case American Media leaks cause problems for Trump…

The American media has publicized the crime scene images from the Manchester concert bombing…

The cops there are NOT happy…

The British have declined to provide more info on the case , the media is reporting (I seriously doubt this is actually true ion the intel level)….

Trump has just ordered a probe into how the name got to the American media…

Leaks have been trouble for Trump recently….

President Trump on Thursday condemned “leaks of sensitive information,” responding to a complaint by Britain’s prime minister, Theresa May, over disclosures of details from the investigation into Britain’s deadliest terrorist attack since 2005.

“The alleged leaks coming out of government agencies are deeply troubling,” Mr. Trump said in a statement. “These leaks have been going on for a long time, and my administration will get to the bottom of this. The leaks of sensitive information pose a grave threat to our national security.”

He added: “I am asking the Department of Justice and other relevant agencies to launch a complete review of this matter, and, if appropriate, the culprit should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

Unauthorized disclosures have dogged Mr. Trump, who has regularly and angrily criticized leaks from his government. In his first month in office, he called for a Justice Department investigation into what he said were “criminal leaks.” But two dimensions of the latest controversy are new: The disclosures in this case are about a terrorism investigation led by a foreign ally, and the British government has brought its complaints to a receptive audience.

In a statement, Mrs. May’s office said she would bring up the matter at a NATO gathering in Brussels on Thursday evening and would “make clear to President Trump that intelligence that is shared between our law enforcement agencies must remain secure.”….

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Utah Sen. Hatch leaning towards retiring…Romney Run coming?

Image result for hatch/romney

This story has been running in the media for a while….

The wait ir for hatch to confirm what he will do….

UtahPolicy.com has been told by various sources that U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, is leaning against running for re-election in 2018, and will likely retire. The second part of the rumor is that Mitt Romney is very likely to seek Hatch’s seat.

Of course, it can always be the case that Hatch could change his mind and seek re-election, UtahPolicy is told.

He clearly is waiting out the field – by not announcing his intentions, by not actually starting a campaign – he is keeping other legitimate GOP candidates from announcing, or starting a campaign. Some prospective candidates are becoming impatient and a little irritated that Hatch hasn’t announced his plans.

UtahPolicy is hearing that Hatch will announce in the fall, perhaps as early as August, that he intends to retire and devote his efforts to the Hatch Foundation – which UtahPolicy.com has discussed previously.

Hatch is now 83. He would be 84 during his 2018 re-election run, and be 90 if he served out another full six-year term.

Hatch is already the longest serving Republican senator in U.S. history, having won his first election in 1976 as a then-underdog candidate…..

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image…mobile.wnd.com

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Obama greeted by up to 100,000 in Berlin visit…

Another time Barack Obama outdoes Donald Trump with crowds….

The former President had a good time hanging with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and speaking about not closing up America from the rest of the world behind a ‘wall’…..

Image result for obama/merkel

The former US president, Barack Obama, has made a call for international engagement as he told an audience of tens of thousands in Berlin that “we can’t hide behind a wall.”

Obama was discussing democracy and global responsibility with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, as the country marks the 500th anniversary of the Reformation. It was Obama’s first speaking event in Europe since leaving the White House in January.

At the 18th-century monument in Berlin that has also heard celebrated speeches from Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, Obama and Merkel took questions about shaping democracy from a teacher, an actor, a social worker and a student.

After lauding Merkel as someone who had done “outstanding work,” Obama launched a defence of his own presidency and the values of liberal democracy championed by both leaders.

Citing the rise of nationalism and xenophobia in parts of the world, Obama told the crowd that “we have to push back against those trends that would violate human rights or suppress democracy or restrict individual freedoms.”

In questions to both leaders on the refugee crisis, Obama said nation states had a duty to help people in need but also to make clear to their own populations the interconnected nature of the world….

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image…..cnn.com

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It appears Donald Trump is hurting the American Tourism Business…

Telling people NOT to come to America and making it more difficult doesn’t make people want to come visit a place…They tend to go elsewhere…

And THAT certainly does create jobs and make America extra money….

The US tourism business is in trouble — and President Trump may be to blame.

America’s share of international tourism has dropped 16% in March, compared to the same month in 2016, according to Foursquare data released Wednesday. 

The decline began in October 2016, the month before the presidential election. From October to March, tourism-related traffic has fallen an average of 11% in the US, compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, tourism in the rest of the world has increased 6% year-over-year during the same period.

Foursquare a location intelligence company best known for its app that tracks user visits to restaurants, bars, hotels, and other sites, as well as the company’s work in analytics, advertising and developer solutions.

Foursquare analysts connected the drop to President Trump’s America first rhetoric and policies that have made some international tourists wary of visiting the US. Foursquare CEO Jeff Glueck notes that residents from the Middle East and Central/South America — regions for which Trump has encouraged stricter immigration and travel policies — have been avoiding the US more than residents of Asia, Europe, and other regions….

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iPhone 8?….How about iPhone 9?

Macrumors is up with a possible peek at the 2018 predecessor to unreleased iPhone 8….

As stories surrounding the 2017 launch of the “iPhone 8” continue to heat up, a report from The Bell this morning has already begun rumors for next year’s so-called “iPhone 9.” According to the report, which centers on Apple’s and Samsung’s supply chain deal for the 2018 iPhone, the iPhone 9 will launch in two OLED screen sizes: 5.28-inch and 6.46-inch (via The Investor).

Apple currently sells a 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch display in its iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus smartphone devices, respectively. Later this year, the company is expected to launch new iPhones in three sizes: two “iPhone 7s” models will keep the 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch display sizes, while the major new “iPhone 8” will include a 5.8-inch OLED screen.

A rendering of the iPhone 8

The report said the iPhone 9 is expected to come in two OLED models — 5.28- and 6.46-inch display sizes. Samsung’s OLED shipment is also likely to be more than double at 180 million units….

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Attorney General Jeff Sessions failed to list several Russian contacts on his security clearance form…

Is the nation’s Attorney General gonna be answering questions from former Attorney General Mueller’s guys doing the Russian’s connections probe?…

Image result for sessions

Attorney General Jeff Sessions did not disclose on security clearance forms that he met twice last year with Russia’s ambassador, CNN reported Wednesday.

The form, the SF-86, asks applicants to disclose any contacts with a foreign government or its representatives over the past seven years.

Justice Department spokeswoman Sarah Isgur Flores told CNN that an FBI employee who was helping Sessions complete the form advised him that he did not have to disclose meetings with foreign ambassadors that took place during his time in the Senate.

She said Sessions listed a year’s worth of meetings with foreign officials on the form.

CNN notes that federal officials do not have to list meetings that were part of foreign conferences attended while conducting government business — though Sessions’ meetings with Sergey Kislyak do not appear to fall under that exemption. …

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image…washingtonpost.com

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House Healthcare Bill would knock 23 Million Americans out of coverage…

The Congressional Budget Office is out with it’s study of the final House  ‘Repeal’ bill…

It ain’t pretty…

Health-care legislation adopted by House Republicans earlier this month would leave 23 million more Americans uninsured by 2026 than under current law, the Congressional Budget Office projected Wednesday — only a million fewer than the estimate for the House’s previous bill.

The nonpartisan agency’s finding, which drew immediate fire from Democrats, patient advocates, health industry officials and some business groups, is likely to complicate Republicans’ push to pass a companion bill in the Senate.

The new score, which reflects last-minute revisions that Republicans made to win over several conservative lawmakers and a handful of moderates, calculates that the American Health Care Act would reduce the federal deficit by $119 billion between 2017 and 2026. That represents a smaller reduction than the $150 billion CBO estimated in late March, largely because House leaders provided more money in their final bill to offset costs for consumers with expensive medical conditions and included language that could translate to greater federal spending on health insurance subsidies.

As GOP senators quickly distanced themselves from the updated numbers, what became apparent is the difficult balancing act congressional leaders face as they seek to rewrite large portions of the Affordable Care Act. Some senators are eager to soften portions of the House bill, including cuts to entitlement programs and provisions that would allow insurers in individual states to offer fewer benefits in their health plans or to charge consumers with costly medical conditions higher premiums….

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GOP Candidate in Montana race said to have ‘body-slammed’ reporter…Police Called…

The House Special Election is tomorrow….

Greg Gianforte, the Republican candidate in Montana’s special congressional election, was accused Wednesday night of assaulting a reporter for the Guardian who had been trying to ask him a question. Gianforte, who is seen as the slight favorite in an election that ends Thursday, left what was supposed to be a final campaign rally, at his Bozeman headquarters, without giving a speech.

The Gallatin County sheriff’s office said Wednesday evening that it was “currently investigating allegations of an assault involving Greg Gianforte.”

In an audio recording published by the Guardian, Ben Jacobs can be heard asking Gianforte to respond to the fresh Congressional Budget Office score of the American Health Care Act, a bill Gianforte has said he was glad to see the House of Representatives approve. According to Alexis Levinson, a reporter for BuzzFeed, Jacobs had followed the candidate into a room where a camera was set up for an interview, before the event began.

“We’ll talk to you about that later,” Gianforte says in the audio.

“Yeah, but there’s not going to be time,” says Jacobs. “I’m just curious about it right now.”

After Gianforte tells Jacobs to direct the question to his spokesman, Shane Scanlon, there is the sound of an altercation, and Gianforte begins to scream.

“I’m sick and tired of you guys!” Gianforte says. “The last guy that came in here did the same thing. Get the hell out of here! Get the hell out of here! The last guy did the same thing. Are you with the Guardian?”

“Yes, and you just broke my glasses,” Jacobs says.

“The last guy did the same damn thing,” Gianforte says.

“You just body-slammed me and broke my glasses,” Jacobs says.

“Get the hell out of here,” Gianforte says….

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While Trump visits Europe….Obama arrives also….

Barack and Michelle Obama in Siena on Monday. Obama and Trump have not met or spoken since the inauguration, and that seems unlikely to change.

Donald Trump makes his European debut as US president this week just as his predecessor, Barack Obama, returns to the continent for his first visit since relinquishing the White House in January.

While apparently unintentional, the coinciding visits serve to highlight Europe’s radically different view of the two men. A Pew survey last June found 77% of Europeans had confidence in Obama – and 9% in the man who succeeded him.

The contrast will come into sharp focus on Thursday, when the current and former presidents have parallel public engagements in Europe, providing a split-screen comparison between their extreme differences….

Obama will deliver a speech alongside German chancellor Angela Merkel at Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate. The Obama foundation say that the invitation from Merkel came before the US election, so the fact he is in Europe as the same time as Trump is pure coincidence.

Europeans are already wistful in anticipation. Pictures of Obama on holiday in Tuscany with his wife Michelle – relaxed and smiling in an open-buttoned shirt – have only heightened the sense of longing for a president whose rationality, sophistication and emotional intelligence often contrast with his successor.

Writing about Obama’s Berlin visit, the highpoint of a season of celebrations to mark the 500th anniversary of the Protestant church, the Leipziger Zeitung said his presence in Germany would be equivalent to that of a “healer”.

“Already he is a painfully-missed ex-president,” the newspaper wrote in an editorial, describing him as an “eloquent, charismatic preacher” – qualities it suggested were sorely lacking in Trump.

Obama and Trump have not met or spoken since the inauguration….

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Republicans ARE worried….

They SHOULD be….

Republican leaders are coming to the bleak conclusion they will end summer and begin the fall with no major policy accomplishments. Privately, they realize it’s political malpractice to blow at least the the first nine of months of all Republican rule, but also realize there’s little they can do to avoid the dismal outcome.
In fact, they see the next four months as MORE troublesome than the first four. They’re facing terrible budget choices and headlines, the painful effort to re-work the health care Rubik’s Cube in the House (presuming it makes it out of the Senate), a series of special-election scares (or losses) — all with scandal-mania as the backdrop.

One of the key insights I picked up at last week’s SALT hedge-fund conference in Vegas (tough duty) was that nobody thought health care reform would happen, and most were very skeptical that Trump and Republicans could get their acts together enough to pass tax reform this year.

Asked about both onstage, Jeb Bush said a flat “no” to health care and a very unconvincing “maybe” to tax reform. The masters of the universe had more colorful words in private — they’re deeply pessimistic about health care.

A source close to the Republican congressional leadership emails a vivid snapshot of the party’s feng shui:

We are walking into an autumn of discontent because they won’t have any legislative accomplishment when they come back from the August recess. … Their biggest problem is that the reconciliation instructions will expire at the end of September. …

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Do Democrats need Trump voters for next years Midterm Elections?

Who needs Trump voters? Not Democrats.

Stop me if you’ve seen a headline (or five) that proclaims something along the lines of: “Most Trump voters still support Trump.” Typically, the article includes quotes from Trump voters in Pennsylvania or Michigan. Sometimes it revolves around polling showing people don’t “regret” voting for Trump. The takeaway is usually: Trump still has the support of his base, which means Democrats haven’t cracked the Trump nut yet.

But here’s the thing: Democrats don’t need to crack that nut by 2018; Trump can hang on to most — if not all — of his base, and Democrats could still clean up in the midterm elections…

Let’s start with the basic fact that Trump won just 45.9 percent of the vote in 2016. That doesn’t make his victory any less legitimate — winning (the Electoral College) with a plurality rather than a majority is still winning — but Trump has a smaller base than every president elected since 1972, except for Bill Clinton in 1992. Trump voters are not a majority.

More importantly for the sake of 2018, they don’t represent the majority of voters in the majority of congressional districts. Trump won more than 50 percent in 205 of 435 districts. If House Republicans won every district where Trump won a majority in 2016 but lost every other one, Democrats would control 230 seats. Among seats won by a Republican in 2016, Trump fell short of a majority in 40 districts. Democrats need to win only 24 of those to win control of the House.

As Enten notes at the beginning of his article, recent polling shows Trump voters still overwhelmingly support Trump. And Enten’s review of the last eight midterm elections shows the GOP will hold them, because Trump voters are rank and file GOP…..

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Trump hires his own lawyer….

With his efforts to shut down the investigation swirling around his campaign and the Russians not working…

He signs up a lawyer to look after HIS interests…

President Trump has retained the services of a trusted lawyer, Marc E. Kasowitz, to help him navigate the investigations into his campaign and suspected Russian interference in last year’s election, according to people familiar with the decision.

Kasowitz, who has known Trump for decades, has represented Trump in numerous cases, including on his divorce records, real estate transactions and allegations of fraud at Trump University. He is a partner at Kasowitz, Benson, Torres & Friedman in New York.

With the appointment last week of a special counsel to probe alleged Russian meddling in the election and possible collusion with the Trump campaign, the stakes have been raised considerably for the Republican president and his associates. Trump has repeatedly denied that he did anything improper and has said that he has been told he is not under investigation.

The White House had no immediate comment on Kasowitz’s hiring. Those who confirmed the decision spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the move….

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