Hillary Clinton attacks Trump on Hate and a Radical Fringe Appeal…….

Clinton: Trump gives rise to 'fringe element' stoking racial discord

Hillary Cliton made a sppech today pointing out WHO Donald Trump has made his base and supporters…

She also pointed to how in the last 24 hours Trump has tried appeal to Latino’s and Black’s to ‘trust’ him, while he STILL says he’s true  those who would agree with his campaign of fear and prejudice…She also questioned Trump call to ban people based on their reglious beliefs…

In 2016 Donald Trump HAS used ‘fear’ of the direction America is going to gain support…It appaers Hillary Clinton is NOT gonna let him and the media forget that 75 days out from the General Election…

We cannot be allowed go backwards by electing  Trump….

In her speech she gives ample reasons why Trump HAS struck out with minorities in the polls….

Those who though that Hillary Clinton and her campaign could NOT slug it out against Trump are sadly mistaken….

“From the start, Donald Trump has built his campaign on prejudice and paranoia,” Clinton said on Thursday at a speech in Nevada. “He’s taking hate groups mainstream and helping a radical fringe take over one of America’s two major political parties.”

She called him “profoundly dangerous.”

“A man with a long history of racial discrimination, who traffics in dark conspiracy theories drawn from the pages of supermarket tabloids and the far reaches of the internet, should never run our government or command our military,” she said.

With Trump working hard in recent days to appeal to African-American voters, Clinton hammered the appeals the Manhattan billionaire has offered to the black community. She said Trump “misses so much” in making his case to black voters, including the “vibrancy” of black-owned businesses, the “excellence” of historically black colleges and universities and the “pride” of African-Americans watching their children thrive.

She also recalled the lawsuit filed against Trump that accused him of refusing to rent to black and Hispanic tenants. She said his first foray into the political world, his spearheading of the so-called “birther” movement that questioned whether President Barack Obama had been born in the United States, amounted to an effort to

“It takes a lot of nerve to ask people he’s ignored and mistreated for decades, ‘what do you have to lose?’” Clinton said, repeating a question Trump has asked of black voters before the mostly white audiences at his rallies. “Because the answer is everything.”
With Trump tacking quickly away from the hardline immigration stance upon which he built his campaign, Clinton recalled the Trump Tower speech he delivered on the day he launched his White House bid in which he said of Mexican immigrants, “They’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists, and some, I assume, are good people.”

“Since then, there’s been a steady stream of bigotry,” she said.

From there, Clinton listed the litany of controversies that have swirled around Trump’s campaign. She pointed to his initial refusal to repudiate an endorsement from former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke and his decision to retweet a message from an anti-Semitic Twitter account. She asked the crowd to “think about” what it meant that the Republican nominee for president accused a Hispanic federal judge of being biased against him because of his heritage.

The former secretary of state also attacked Trump’s penchant for “pushing discredited conspiracy theories with racist undertones.”

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Note….

Trump’s response?

Donald Trump ripped Hillary Clinton for playing the race card on Thursday, calling her a bully seeking to distract voters from her own controversies by accusing others of racism…..

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Open Thread for August 21, 2016…Trust Donald Trump?

Just a little reminder…..

Do NOT Trust a guy who says who continues to say he’s gonna change ….

And doesn’t….

Donald Trump is gonna be Donald Trump….

Just about Donald Trump….

Still saying he’s gonna build a wall…

Still talking about setting up a ‘Deportion Force’

Still talking about how President Obama and then Sec Clinton gave ‘birth’ to ISIS….

Still saying he doesn’t want immigration from ANY country that has had a terrorist act in it…

Still calling Obama and Clinton names

Still saying he’s running a campaign , when he has NO ONE that has ever run a campaign running things….

Still NOT listening much to anyone but himself….

Still not gonna tell you about where he owes money and how much he’s on the hook for ….

And the list can go on…..

Donald Trump ain’t gonna change….

And people TRUST him a whole LOT less than Hillary Clinton….

Can you image THAT?

image…theatlantic.com

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US Navy fires warning shot’s at Iranian Navy patrol boat…

The US ships where said to be operating in International waters….

Earlier this year a small us patrol boat wondereed into Iran territory and was captured  by the Iranians….

It appears that the US Navy now is using larger ships to do its patrol in in the gulf in arae’s the US maintains ARE neutral….(The one’s this week are Arleigh-Burke class guided-missile destroyer’s that could easily take out the Iranian patrol boats….)

There have been several close encounters this week….

An American coastal patrol ship fired warning shots in the Persian Gulf on Wednesday after a dangerous approach from an Iranian vessel, according to the Pentagon, which urged Iran to ease maritime tensions with U.S. ships transiting international waters in the Middle East.

The USS Squall and the USS Tempest, two American coastal patrol ships, were transiting the Persian Gulf on Wednesday, when the U.S. said an Iranian vessel harassed the ships. According to a U.S. defense official, the Iranian craft was at one point going head-to-head with the USS Tempest and coming within 200 yards of the American patrol craft. The Iranian ship didn’t respond to radio calls.

The aggressive behavior of the Iranian vessel prompted the USS Squall to fire three warning shots with its .50-caliber gun and the USS Tempest to fire three warning flares, according to the official, who said the Iranian vessel then turned away.

The same Iranian vessel also approached the USS Stout, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, in the region on Wednesday, crossing the American destroyer’s bow on three separate occasions in what the U.S. Navy deemed an unsafe intercept, the U.S. defense official said. The USS Stout changed its course to avoid a collision, the official said.

The close calls came a day after four Iranian vessels harassed the USS Nitze, another Arleigh-Burke class guided-missile destroyer, as it transited the Strait of Hormuz…..

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A little peek at the what could be the iPhone 8

…from MacRumors….

The radically redesigned iPhone coming in 2017 will not feature a Home button, Bloomberg today confirmed in a wider report focusing on new mobile payment features coming to Japan.

Apple is already at work on a major redesign of the iPhone for 2017 that focuses more heavily on the display by removing the Home button, according to a person familiar with the matter.

According to past rumors, the 2017 iPhone, which may be called the iPhone 8, will feature a complete design overhaul with an edge-to-edge flexible OLED display that does away with the top and bottom bezels where features like the Touch ID fingerprint sensor and front-facing camera are housed.

spacegrayiphone
Instead, the functionality of the Home button, including Touch ID, may be built directly into the display. Apple design chief Jony Ive is said to have wanted to build an iPhone that looks like a single sheet of glass for several years, and 2017, the year that marks the 10th anniversary of the iPhone, is when it will happen…..

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Uber is losing a TON of Money in the US…

…from Bloomberg….

After touting profitability in the U.S. early this year, the ride-hailing company is said to post second-quarter losses exceeding $100 million.

The ride-hailing giant Uber Technologies Inc. is not a public company, but every three months, dozens of shareholders get on a conference call to hear the latest details on its business performance from its head of finance, Gautam Gupta.

On Friday, Gupta told investors that Uber’s losses mounted in the second quarter. Even in the U.S., where Uber had turned a profit during its first quarter, the company was once again losing money.
In the first quarter of this year, Uber lost about $520 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to people familiar with the matter. In the second quarter the losses significantly exceeded $750 million, including a roughly $100 million shortfall in the U.S., those people said. That means Uber’s losses in the first half of 2016 totaled at least $1.27 billion.

Subsidies for Uber’s drivers are responsible for the majority of the company’s losses globally, Gupta told investors, according to people familiar with the matter. An Uber spokesman declined to comment.

“You won’t find too many technology companies that could lose this much money, this quickly,”…..

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Polling Update August 25, 2016….

….All around bad news seems to mount for Republicans. Perhaps we’re headed for the landslide, up-and-down-the-ballot rout Democrats dreamed of when Trump became the nominee….

Scott Elliot @ Election Projection...

Real Clear Politics Presidential margin.+6.0 Clinton

Sam Wang Election Consortium Presidential margin+6.5 Clinton

Election Projection Presidential margin...+4.4 Clinton

Five Thirty Eight 

Clinton….83.7%

Trump…..16.3%

The Upshot

Clinton…..89%

Trump……11%

Thursday, August 25

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Quinnipiac

Clinton 45, Trump 38, Johnson 10, Stein 4      Clinton +7

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Quinnipiac

Clinton 51, Trump 41      Clinton +10

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Rasmussen Reports

Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 9, Stein 2       Clinton +4

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Reuters/Ipsos

Clinton 39, Trump 36, Johnson 7, Stein 3      Clinton +3

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Reuters/Ipsos

Clinton 42, Trump 35      Clinton +7

Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Suffolk University

Clinton 44, Trump 37, Johnson 5, Stein 3      Clinton +7

President Obama Job Approval

Quinnipiac

Approve 54, Disapprove 44     Approve +10

President Obama Job Approval

Gallup

Approve 48, Disapprove 46      Approve +2

President Obama Job Approval

Rasmussen Reports

Approve 50, Disapprove 48      Approve +2

President Obama Job Approval

Reuters/Ipsos

Approve 44, Disapprove 50      Disapprove +6

…for more info on the above polls…Real Clear Politics….

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The Cook Political Report Update…What October Surprise?..

Amy Walter over at the Cook Poltitcalo Report hones in two points in her piece today….

First.…There shouldn’t be much of a surprise come October…All the bad news for Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump IS out there….We can only expect more of the same…

Second.…Both candiadates are pretty well defined and that plays to Clinton’s organiztional advantage….

Oh, I ‘ll add a Third….

Hillary Clinton has , according to Walter THRITEEN paths to get to 270 Electoral Votes…Trump has only FOUR…..

If voters, especially those that are predisposed to like you, describe you as an “idiot” and a “bully” this close to the election, those views are not likely to change. Moreover, Trump’s decision to double, triple and quadruple down on a strategy of appealing almost exclusively to white voters, has already made his pathway to the presidency narrow. And, any softening of his deportation policies isn’t going to be enough to make up for his previous statements about Mexican “rapists” and his continued focus on building a wall. The wall itself, for many minority voters, is as problematic as a deportation policy. It says, pretty clearly, we don’t want you here.

At the end of the day, we have two candidates with well-defined weaknesses who are going to be battling those weaknesses for the foreseeable future. Clinton has less control over how her bad stuff gets out. The State Department and Judicial Watch, not her campaign will be releasing the latest trove of previously unknown emails. But, she’s aided by the fact that Trump has proven unable – or unwilling – to stay focused on making her weaknesses the centerpiece of his strategy. Just when it seems he’s honed in on a message, he veers off into another tweet storm or speech that distracts from her and puts the spotlight back on him. Moreover, with a huge fundraising advantage, Clinton and her allies will be able to keep more of Trump’s bad stuff in front of voters – regardless of what is happening in the news cycle…..

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Political Roundup for August 25, 2016…Where is Trump on Immigration?…RRH Elections

Only 75 days until Election Day!

President:

Trump: A person waking up today from a 2 year coma will discover that in an effort to appeal Hispanic voters the GOP nominated the pro-immigration amnesty advocate Donald Trump as their presidential candidate and that for some strange reason the GOP presidential candidate is campaigning in Mississippi in August.

Trump: The speechwriter for Melania Trump’s plagiarized Republican National Convention address was paid just $356.01 for her work. That is less money than the Trump campaign spent on a trip they made to a One Hour Framing store. No word yet on how much of that $356.01 needs to be paid out to Michelle Obama in royalties.

Johnson: A super PAC supporting Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson is spending $1 million on a national TV ad supporting the former New Mexico governor in the hopes of raising his poll numbers enough to get Gary Johnson included in the Presidential debates.

Stein: Green Party candidate Jill Stein has qualified for the ballot in Missouri, Ohio and Kansas. This will be the 1st time since 2000 that a Green Party candidate will be on the ballot in Missouri. The Green Party will also be fielding a Senate and Gubernatorial candidate in Missouri as well.

McMullin: Better for America, the #NeverTrump group that wanted to get ballot access for a 3rd party conservative challenger, has folded. Without the support of Better for America it will be very difficult for McMullin to get on additional state ballots. So far McMullin has made the ballot in only five states, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota and Utah and has missed the ballot deadlines in states with a combined 390 electoral votes; Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin and the District of Columbia…..

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Trump pledges to protect jobs and wages of Latino’s?

Did He REALLY say THAT?

The guy who wanted a Deportation Force…

The guy who STILL wants to build a WALL is trying to pull off the BIGGEST Flip-Flop, PIVOT , Change in direction, to Kiss ass to Latino’s in BROAD DAY LIGHT?

Oh, and he’s trying to include Blacks also?

What next?

Will he stand at the airport to greet Muslims?

Donald Trump on Wednesday reached out to Hispanic voters amid questions about whether he’s softening his position on immigration.

At a rally in Tampa, Fla., Trump veered from prepared remarks and vowed to protect the jobs and wages of Latinos.

“To the Hispanic parent, you have a right to walk outside without being shot,” Trump said.

“You have a right to good education for your child,” he continued.

“You have right to own your home. You have a right to have a good job. I am going to fight to give every Hispanic citizen in this country a better future.”

Trump made a similar pitch to black voters, another group he is seeking inroads with.

“To African-American parents, you have right to walk down your street without having you or your child shot,” he said.

The Republican presidential nominee used the topic to attack Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, saying she wants “a totally open border” and would rather give a job to an “illegal immigrant” than to an “unemployed Hispanic citizen.”

He also argued that Clinton would abandon minority voters after being elected and only show back up four years later for reelection….

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Note….

Trump is finally doing what American politicians running for President do…

Pivot to the Center…

But it’s TOO Late….

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Ted Cruz on Trump….’I told you so’….

The Ted Cruz people want Republican voters to know Trump’s flip-flop on Immigration was something that they worried  about…..(The two Republicans Do NOT like each other)

Image result for trump/cruz

Trump doubled down against the other people running in the 2016 GOP primary with HIS tough guy act on Immigration,…..NOW Trump is giving mixed signals trying to crawl back to the left for the Latino vote?

Cruz is setting up the 2018 and 2020 election races for Conservatives , who Trump co-opted…And ran over…

As Donald Trump soft-pedals his once-hard-line immigration rhetoric, supporters of his vanquished primary foe Ted Cruz have one message for Republican voters: We told you so.

Cruz spent the final months of his unsuccessful presidential primary run arguing that Trump was a not-so-closeted liberal whose conservative language on immigration was not to be trusted. Now, Trump says he is open to “softening” the approach to some undocumented immigrants already in this country, a departure from his previous calls for a deportation force.

And as Ted Cruz eyes his 2018 reelection bid, with some of his supporters holding out hopes for a 2020 presidential run, Cruz world feels vindicated.

“Everything Trump promises comes with an expiration date,” said Cruz’s former Senate communications director, Amanda Carpenter.

“We knew it during the primary, and now it is apparent he has duped his most loyal supporters on the issue they care about most, immigration. Don’t say we didn’t warn them.”

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image…foxnews.com

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Trump changes postion on the 11 Million long term undocumented?…

It seems that in response to heavy duty question of him and his campaign manager?

Trump now has TWO different answers on what HE would do about the 11Million supposed undocumented in America long term…

First it was a ‘deportation force’….

Now it appaears that Trump is trying to wiggle back to ‘working with them?….

Martco Rubio got into trouble with the Republican base trying to do this…..

Trump started his campaign going HARD against Latino’s….

Now LOSING?…He wants to try to worm his way back for some support?

Amid talk that he is softening his stance on illegal immigration, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump reassured his supporters Wednesday night that there will be “no amnesty” for those in the United States illegally.

But Trump added that he has grown increasingly sympathetic on the campaign trail to the plight of individuals who have spent years and sometimes decades in the U.S. illegally but have lived otherwise upstanding lives.Trump was asked by Fox News host Sean Hannity in an interview scheduled to air Wednesday night if he would amend his previous pledge to remove all illegal immigrants from the U.S. to include an exception for undocumented immigrants who have not committed other crimes.

“No citizenship,” Trump responded. “Let me go a step further — they’ll pay back-taxes, they have to pay taxes, there’s no amnesty, as such, there’s no amnesty, but we work with them.”

“Now, everybody agrees we get the bad ones out,” he continued. “But when I go through and I meet thousands and thousands of people on this subject, and I’ve had very strong people come up to me, really great, great people come up to me, and they’ve said, ‘Mr. Trump, I love you, but to take a person who’s been here for 15 or 20 years and throw them and their family out, it’s so tough, Mr. Trump.’ I have it all the time! It’s a very, very hard thing.”

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The Air Force approves the first 19 KC-46A (B-767) tankers…

Image result for kc-46

This has been in the workers since Febuary 2011….(2006 actually)

The program has had a LOT of problems….

The U.S. Air Force has awarded the first major production contract for its new refueling tanker.

The service on Thursday awarded Boeing Co. a $2.8 billion modification to a previously awarded contract for the first two lots of low-rate initial production of the KC-46A Pegasus refueling tanker, according to the announcement.

The agreement calls for a total of 19 aircraft, four spare engines and 10 wing refueling pod kits across both lots, the announcement states. Work will be performed in Seattle and completed by Aug. 24, 2018, it states.

Earlier this week, Frank Kendall, the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer, approved the 767 airliner-based aircraft for low-rate initial production, known in acquisition parlance as Milestone C.

The move came despite recent technical challenges that has resulted in program delays.

Boeing had initially planned to deliver the first tranche of airplanes by August 2017, but that was pushed back until at least January 2018 in part because of parts of the aircraft needed to be reworked.

The Chicago-based aerospace giant has already spent more than $1.2 billion on repairs to the aircraft…

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image…boeing.com

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Polling Update August 24, 2016….Lot’s of Polls!

Hillary Clinton is actually inching up in the margin calls…..

Real Clear Poltics Presidential margin...+5.4 Clinton

Sam Wang Election Consortium Presidential margin….+6.3 Clinton

Election Projection Presidential margin….+5.8 Clinton

Five Thirty Eight

Clinton …..83.5%

Trump,,,,,,,16.4%

The Upshot

Clinton……89%

Trump……..11%
Wednesday, August 24

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Economist/YouGov

Clinton 47, Trump 44     Clinton +3

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Economist/YouGov

Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 6, Stein 4      Clinton +4

Florida: Trump vs. Clinton

Florida Atlantic University*

Clinton 41, Trump 43      Trump +2

North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton

CNN/ORC

Clinton 48, Trump 47     Clinton +1

North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson

CNN/ORC

Clinton 45, Trump 45, Johnson 9      Tie

North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson

Monmouth

Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 7     Clinton +2

Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton

CNN/ORC

Trump 49, Clinton 44      Trump +5

Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

CNN/ORC

Trump 45, Clinton 38, Johnson 12, Stein 4      Trump +7

New Mexico: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

PPP (D)

Clinton 40, Trump 31, Johnson 16, Stein 4      Clinton +9

Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Murphy

Florida Atlantic University

Rubio 44, Murphy 39     Rubio +5

North Carolina Senate – Burr vs. Ross

CNN/ORC

Burr 50, Ross 45     Burr +5

North Carolina Senate – Burr vs. Ross

Monmouth*

Burr 45, Ross 43      Burr +2

Arizona Senate – McCain vs. Kirkpatrick

CNN/ORC

McCain 52, Kirkpatrick 39      McCain +13

North Carolina Governor – McCrory vs. Cooper

CNN/ORC

Cooper 52, McCrory 46      Cooper +6

North Carolina Governor – McCrory vs. Cooper

Monmouth*

Cooper 52, McCrory 43      Cooper +9

President Obama Job Approval

Gallup

Approve 51, Disapprove 44       Approve +7

President Obama Job Approval

Rasmussen Reports

Approve 52, Disapprove 47     Approve +5

President Obama Job Approval

Economist/YouGov

Approve 47, Disapprove 52     Disapprove +5

…for more info on the above polls...Real Clear Politics….

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Earthquake in Italy Kills More Than 150…

Image result for www.apple.comearthquake in  Italy

….from the NY Times……

A strong earthquake struck a mountainous stretch of central Italy early Wednesday, killing at least 159 people, trapping scores under debris and setting off tremors that awakened residents in Rome, nearly 100 miles to the southwest.

The earthquake, which had a preliminary magnitude of 6.2, struck at 3:36 a.m., about 6.5 miles southeast of the town of Norcia in the Umbria region, followed by about 200 aftershocks over the next several hours, including a 5.5-magnitude tremor at 4:33 a.m.

The authorities said the quake was comparable in intensity to one in 2009 in the Abruzzo region of central Italy that killed more than 300 people.

Towns in three regions — Umbria, Lazio and Marche — were devastated by the quake, which could be felt as far away as Bologna in the north and Naples in the south. The deaths appeared to be concentrated in four communities: at least 86 in the towns of Amatrice and Accumoli, in Lazio, and at least 32 deaths in Marche, in the village of Arquata del Tronto and the hamlet of Pescara del Tronto…..

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image..cbsnews.com

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Political Roundup For Wednesday, August 24, 2016…Trump people fighting the polls?..RRH Elctions

Presidential News:

Clinton: It turns out that Hillary Clinton, while Secretary of State, had quite a pattern of meeting with Clinton Foundation donors. While the evidence of “pay to play” is only circumstantial, even liberals are admitting that the facts don’t look good. And Trump doesn’t necessarily need to win disaffected Clinton voters. Getting them to stay home is a half victory.

Romney Donors: Clinton is making a concerted effort to reach out to large Romney donors for cash and support. Obviously Clinton likes the money and the press from gaining big Romney folks, but the pitch to donors that they can only save the GOP by electing Hillary is a ruse. My sense is that Clinton is dog-whistling here, and that the message is that if these donors want political appointments or federal judgeships, they ought to recognize that they need to play the game.

Colorado: (No link) A source within the Trump campaign tells me they have an internal showing them down only 2 or 3 points to Hillary Clinton, depending on whether Johnson and Stein are included in the poll. Take with a grain of salt, given the source and the rough 6-point rule on internal polls…..

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Note….

There appears to be a campaign going on by the Trump people to dispute the overwhelming poll findins that their guy is losing….

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Merkel says the EU will wait on the UK’s Brexit direction…

All the pressure from France and other countries to get the UK out of the European Union as soon as possible is going nowhere…

Newly minted UK Prime Minister May was actually against leaving….

So German Chancellor Merkel is told everyone slow down…Ther isn’t even a request on paper…

She’s all right with letting PM May try to  figure out what the UK is actually going to do….

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she “can allow the time” for the U.K. to decide what it wants from the European Union in Brexit talks, signaling that the other 27 member countries will press ahead with “the European project” in the meantime.

Starting off three days of talks with fellow European leaders on the EU’s way forward, Merkel suggested there’s no advantage in pressing Prime Minister Theresa May’s government for now because the EU can’t negotiate new relations until the U.K. government’s position is clear.

“As we have said, as long as Britain hasn’t submitted its application, we can’t answer the question of what kind of a relationship we envision,”…..

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The Upshot gives Democrats a 60% chance for a US Senate Majority…

2016 is a chance for the Democrats to regain a Majority in the US Senate for Senator Chuck Schumer to lead…..

But it may only last for 2 years and be very close, or a tie to come to Democrats by virtue of the Vice President;’s vote there…

Democrats have a LOT of US Senate seats to defend come 2018….

The Upshot’s new Senate election forecast gives Democrats a 60 percent chance of winning control of the chamber in November.

Included within this 60 percent is a 17 percent chance that the Senate ends up evenly split with a Democratic vice president providing the tiebreaking vote.

By our count, the Democrats need to win five seats among the 11 most competitive races. (The Democrats will need to win six if Donald J. Trump wins the presidential race; we put Mr. Trump’s chances of winning at only 11 percent). Ten of these seats are held by Republicans, and one by a Democrat, Harry Reid of Nevada, who is retiring.

That the Democrats are favored in this election should not be surprising.

The 2016 Senate elections boded well for the Democrats without any consideration of a possible Trump effect on down-ballot races. In recent history, Democrats have done better in presidential election years than in midterm years, when turnout is lower. Most of the senators up for re-election last went before the voters in the Republican wave election of 2010 — when the G.O.P. made big and broad gains in an anti-Obama environment — leaving Republicans with several potentially vulnerable incumbents….

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